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CSD Policy Brief No. 100: Kremlin’s Anti-Democratic Messaging and Disinformation in Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Democracy in Europe has encountered a wide array of internal and external challenges in recent years. The continuing rule of law problems and democratic backsliding, the rise of domestic populism and extremism, disruptive social media and technological developments, and authoritarian-state-driven influence operations have undermined democratic governance on the continent. // An effective and all-encompassing response to Russian (and other authoritarian-state) disinformation would require an integrated, multi-stakeholder approach based on cooperation among policy-makers, civil society, and European/international institutional actors. Achieving such a whole-of-society approach to countering Russian disinformation in Europe calls for much more coordination, flexibility, and swiftness of responses.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 116: Policy Agenda for Countering Media Capture in Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Both in the run-up to its war in Ukraine and afterward, the Kremlin has intensified its disinformation campaigns, particularly those targeted at Europe. Reversing media capture, which allows Russian disinformation to affect citizen attitudes in Europe, must be the first order of business on the foreign policy agenda on both sides of the Atlantic. The focus of such efforts must go beyond tackling disinformation to expose and decouple critical №des of European media infrastructure from corrosive Russian capital. Countries in Central and Eastern Europe are of particular concern, as some display alarmingly high levels of cognitive capture swaying public opinion towards Russia and its authoritarian model.

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Политически брифинг № 118 на CSD: ПРОТИВОДЕЙСТВИЕ НА ХИБРИДНИТЕ ЗАПЛАХИ В БЪЛГАРИЯ

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia has long prepared its war in Ukraine by deploying the full array of hybrid warfare tools at its disposal in Europe: election meddling and strategic corruption aimed at political parties and media, cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and disinformation, economic coercion, and targeted assassinations using difficult-to-detect toxic agents, to name a few. Europe has been slow to react, with EU member states failing to anticipate the war in Ukraine even after the Kremlin started preparations for its final act by deliberately reducing gas storage levels in Germany in the autumn of 2021. Some EU and NATO member states and many political party leaders across the continent remain in denial, even as the war approaches a full year of destruction. NATO and European institutions have begun to prepare policy and operational responses to these emerging hybrid threats, but implementation remains slow and uneven. // Over the past two decades, Russian security services have been implicated in a series of high-profile cases in which radioactive and chemical warfare agents were used to poison individuals perceived as adversaries and political opponents. The most well-known of these cases is the 2006 assassination of Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian defector and dissident, for which the Kremlin’s involvement was confirmed in court. The investigations of the novichok poisonings of the former Russian spy, Sergei Skripal, and opposition leader Alexei Navalny indicate that these incidents have followed a similar pattern to that of Litvinenko. While targeted assassinations are not a novel tactic in the Kremlin’s toolbox for power projection per se, the use of toxic substances traditionally associated with chemical and nuclear weapon programs signals Moscow’s determination to both maintain and deploy its offensive WMD capability, when deemed necessary.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 126: Illicit Financial Flows and Disinformation in Southeast Europe.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Southeast Europe (SEE) remains one of the most vulnerable soft targets for the Kremlin’s ongoing hybrid war against the European Union and the democratic West. The combination of state and media capture, simmering ethnic divisions both between and within countries, and the legacy of Russian cognitive bias all make the region vulnerable to Kremlin’s aggression following their invasion of Ukraine. Illicit finance and disinformation are two of the most potent sharp power tools that the Kremlin has deployed to undermine democratic processes in Southeast Europe. The usage of these tools has also provided fertile ground for the corrosive influence of China and other authoritarian powers. // Illicit financial flows (IFFs) underpin state and media capture oligarchic networks across SEE. Amounting to 6% of the region’s GDP, IFFs are more pervasive in the Balkans than the global average, which stands at 3-5% of world GDP. Widespread disinformation is one of the most insidious symptoms of media capture in SEE. Serbia in particular has emerged as the primary launchpad for both illicit financial flows and pro-Kremlin disinformation in the Western Balkans. However, Bulgaria’s experience has demonstrated that even EU membership does not wipe these problems away. Tackling the nexus of IFFs and media capture in the Balkans calls for continued democratization and rule of law reforms within the framework of an accelerated EU integration. Political leaders throughout the region should be called to account for their support, either open or indirect, of outside authoritarian influence and corrosive capital inflows.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 131: Building Institutional Capacity Framework for Resilience to Disinformation in Bulgaria.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

With the start of its war of aggression in Ukraine, the Kremlin has intensified its disinformation and political interference campaigns across Europe, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern Europe. Using instruments of state capture, specifically focusing on key sectors such as energy, finance and banking, telecommunications, defence, and media, the Kremlin exploits and reinforces existing government vulnerabilities in these countries, in order to erode their governments’ Euro-Atlantic positions and public trust in democratic institutions and European policies and values. // The countries of CEE are particularly vulnerable to this threat, as some of them demonstrate alarmingly high levels of cognitive capture among the general population, political elites, and the media, swaying public opinion towards Russia and its authoritarian model. // Efforts to counter pro-Kremlin disinformation must extend beyond information operations and strategic communication to expose state and media capture across the region, and to develop and effectively implement new and enhanced institutional and regulatory frameworks that will decouple countries’ governance systems from Kremlin interests. To do it, Bulgaria must urgently develop a comprehensive legislative framework for the effective implementation of EU and international sanctions. // The following policy brief presents a concise picture of the short- and long-term governance challenges to the development of national counter-disinformation capacity, building upon the existing initiatives currently led by civil society, media, and the private sector.

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Политически брифинг № 141 на CSD: ПРОТИВОДЕЙСТВИЕ НА ХИБРИДНИТЕ ЗАПЛАХИ ОТ НЕКОНВЕНЦИОНАЛНИ ОРЪЖИЯ В ЧЕРНОМОРСКИЯ РЕГИОН

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Bulgarian

This policy brief examines Russia’s renewed interest in unconventional weapons as a means of power projection which includes the use of state-sponsored targeted assassinations involving hard-to-detect chemical, biological, or radioactive substances. The Kremlin uses disinformation campaigns that exploit issues related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against the countries in the Black Sea region as a form of cognitive warfare designed to advance Russia’s geopolitical agenda by preying on public anxieties. Black Sea regional security cooperation, strategic engagement with EU and NATO partners, and enhanced institutional capacity at the national level to combat media capture and disinformation are critical for harmonising the efforts to deter and counter the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare strategy and bolster the region’s defence capabilities.

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CSD Policy Brief №. 148: Gendered Disinformation Targeting Ukrainian Women Refugees in Bulgaria.

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continuously exposes Bulgaria’s susceptibility to Kremlin’s propaganda machine, an understudied aspect of which is the gender dimension. Gendered disinformation involves misogynistic abuse and violence that employs false and misleading information to target individuals based on their gender identity. Female refugees and migrants from Ukraine have been specifically targeted by these campaigns, with narratives that hyper-sexualize, dehumanize, and undermine their contributions to society. By shaping perceptions of gender roles, disinformation contributes to a hostile environment that erodes solidarity and support for both refugees and female residents from abroad. Furthermore, despite Bulgaria’s legal obligations to support refugees, the inconsistent implementation of these measures, especially in disinformation-prone areas, highlights the real-world impact of these narratives. This analysis examines the disinformation campaigns which exploit themes of sex, gender, and national identity to marginalize and exclude women and minorities, thereby reinforcing misogyny, homophobia, and transphobia within society.

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Печатните медии като обект на тероризма

Author(s): Teodora Savova / Language(s): Bulgarian Issue: 4/2024

An individual's individual needs are not always personal and can be influenced by cultural or social conditions. In other words, individual needs, motives, and media use are related to external factors that are not always under the individual's control. These external factors act as constraints on the use of a particular media and influence the availability of other non-media alternatives. Furthermore, the more alternatives an individual has to satisfy his or her needs, the less he or she will depend on a particular media

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The new Face of Deception: AI’s Role in the Kremlin’s Information Warfare

Author(s): Volodymyr Solovian,Matt Wickham / Language(s): English Issue: 03 (35)/2024

The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has empowered new dimensions of global information warfare. AI-driven technologies, such as deepfakes and sophisticated bot networks, have become pivotal tools of disinformation campaigns carried out by authoritarian regimes. This article highlights the information security threats posed by AI-driven technologies. The authors examine Russia’s approach to using AI in information warfare, citing examples from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The article describes Russia’s attempts to prioritise AI development so as to enhance its disinformation arsenal. Also, the article emphasises the need for strong measures to counter AI misuse while adhering to democratic standards.

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ТИМЧАСОВЕ ПРИПИНЕННЯ ПЕРЕМІЩЕННЯ ВАНТАЖІВ ЧЕРЕЗ ЛІНІЮ ЗІТКНЕННЯ У МЕЖАХ ДОНЕЦЬКОЇ ТА ЛУГАНСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТЕЙ: ОЦІНКИ, НАСЛІДКИ, РІШЕНН

Author(s): Volodymyr Horbulin,Alexander Stepanovich Vlasyuk,O. M. Lyashenko / Language(s): Ukrainian

Ukrainian society and the international community do not have a complete and objective picture of the situation that has developed as a result of the temporary suspension of trade and economic operations with ORDLO, which is carried out to implement the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine "On urgent additional measures to counter hybrid threats to the national security of Ukraine". Instead, the position of the Russian Federation prevails in the global information field, which interprets this measure as a disruption of the Minsk agreements and a hostile attitude towards the population of the occupied territories. Russian dominance in the information space is aimed at stabilizing the domestic political situation in Ukraine and damages its international image. Specialists of the National Institute of Strategic Studies conducted a comprehensive analysis of the consequences of the temporary suspension of cargo transportation (TPPV) across the contact line within the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and its impact on the national security of Ukraine. The results of the analysis prove the legal validity, social necessity and socio-economic importance of the said decision, put into effect by the Decree of the President of Ukraine dated March 15, 2017 No. 62/2017. It is intended for politicians, political analysts, civil servants, scientists, educators and the general public.

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«Активні заходи» СРСР проти США: пролог до гібридної війни

Author(s): D. V. Dubov,Anastasiia Barovska,T.O. Isakova,I. O. Kovalchuk,Vladimir Pavlovich Gorbulin / Language(s): Ukrainian

Dedicated to the subject of the Soviet Union's use of "active measures" against the United States during the Cold War in order to achieve its own foreign policy goals. "Active measures" included the dissemination of disinformation, the use of agents of influence and cover organizations, manipulation of the ZMK and other methods. Today, these same methods are used within the framework of the hybrid war waged by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. Studying the experience of the Soviet-American confrontation will improve the tools for countering the modern challenges of hybrid warfare. It is intended for civil servants, specialists in the security and defense sector, as well as for the general public.

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ДЕРЖАВНО-ПРИВАТНЕ ПАРТНЕРСТВО У СФЕРІ КІБЕРБЕЗПЕКИ: МІЖНАРОДНИЙ ДОСВІД ТА МОЖЛИВОСТІ ДЛЯ УКРАЇНИ

Author(s): D. V. Dubov,V. O. Boyko,S. L. Hnatyuk,M. A. Ozhevan,A. V. Pokrovska / Language(s): Ukrainian

The analytical report is devoted to the issues of forming an effective public-private partnership on cyber security issues. Theoretical approaches to public-private partnership and their peculiarities in cyber security issues are analyzed. The world experience (USA, EU, Germany, Great Britain, Poland) in building trust between the public and private sectors in cyberspace security issues has been studied. The regulatory, legal and organizational foundations of public-private partnership in Ukraine are considered, and effective examples of such partnership are given. Prospective directions for the development of cyber security public-private partnership in Ukraine and possible ways of their implementation are outlined.

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«В ІНТЕРЕСАХ ІНШОЇ ДЕРЖАВИ…»: ПРОБЛЕМИ ВИЯВЛЕННЯ ТА ПРОТИДІЇ АГЕНТАМ ВПЛИВУ

Author(s): D. V. Dubov,Iryna Koretska / Language(s): Ukrainian

Dedicated to the problems of identifying and preventing the activity of influx agents the theoretical aspects of the concept of “influx agent” and the problems of legal qualification of their activities have been explored. The practice of attracting agents up to the point of resemblance in the historical context (the Cold War period) and at the current stage is examined. The country against the activity of influx agents in Ukraine has been closely monitored. Ukrainian criminal legislation in this particular area has been analyzed, problematic aspects of the provisions of Articles 110 and 111 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine have been identified, examples of the activities of agents in Ukraine have been submitted and reviewed It is clear that accusations have been brought against these agents. Based on the results of the investigation, specific recommendations were made to the authorities on strategic directions for improving Ukrainian legislation and preventive measures in the field of anti-influx agents. For government officials, scientists and a wide range of readers who will discuss the problems of national security.

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E-Jihad or the Way Islamic Fundamentalists Utilize Digital and ICT Progress

Author(s): Katarzyna Czornik / Language(s): English Issue: 67/2024

This paper aims to verify the research thesis stating that the combination of Islam and the digital, information and communications, and technological progress has both a bright (positive) and, unfortunately, a dominant, dark (negative) side. Islam and digital or ICT progress are not contradictory, and the proper use of digital tools, without resorting to violence, expansion or war, serves the development and strengthening of Islam. Nevertheless, in the twenty-first century digital progress has proven to be the phenomenon which most noticeably influenced the expansion of terrorist (jihadist) attitudes and has become a catalyst for the emergence and rapid development of cyber jihad within the cyber ummah. For Islamic fundamentalists, tradition remains crucial, but radical scholars in Islamic law argue that to defend that tradition against Western influences, one must embrace the latest and most advanced digital technologies. E-jihad has thus become one of the most effective forms of both offensive and defensive jihad, and it can be presumed that its development will continue in the coming decades. The popularity, consolidation, and development of e-jihad are directly proportional to digital progress.

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HUMOROUS SATIRICAL MEME ̶ ONLINE INFLUENCE TOOL

Author(s): Cristian Ionel Haidău / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2023

In the era of communication, internet and social networks, memes have acquired a huge power to disseminate and influence people. This phenomenon is mainly due to the ease with which a message resonates with people and with one’s friends and acquaintances, the lack of regulation of digital communication channels, and the way social media algorithms are programmed. They tend to favour the financial profit of social media platforms and less to combat bots, fake accounts and the propagation of misleading messages. In this paper, I will analyse and explain why humorous satirical memes have come to be used in influence actions and campaigns and why they have increased effectiveness, especially among trained people, compared to other techniques. The argumentation is built on two dimensions: that of genetic baggage and programming, together with the chemistry of the human body, where hormones play a very important role and that of the social, tribal dimension, where man is a being who wants and needs belonging to a group to feel safe, accepted and valued.

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WEAPONIZING COMMUNICATION. WORDS VS. BULLETS IN THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR

Author(s): Iulia-Alexandra COJOCARU / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2023

In the light of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the article is built around the aim of contributing to a better understanding of the current information environment, as it is necessary both for the public opinion and for the authorities to adapt and respond effectively to the security environment dynamics. The present paper seeks response to the following research question: “How did the Ukrainian Strategic Communication (StratCom) campaigns function in supporting the Ukrainian state to resist the first year of war?”. For the development of the answer, we relied on a qualitative approach, analysing several discourses of the Ukrainian President in mass-media, in the first year of the war. We started from identifying some key-aspects regarding the background of the Russian-Ukrainian relations that Kremlin has exploited in developing their hostile information campaigns, such as common historical landmarks or the religious, cultural and linguistic values shared by these two states. Next, we observed how these issues were included in the Russian officials’ discourse through various messages. Further, we presented Ukraine’s information strategy, implemented beginning with 2014 (after Crimea’s annexation), that was mainly carried through their StratCom campaigns, so that in the final part of the article to analyse some elements of Ukraine’s President discourses, starting with the first days of the war. Our conclusions lead to the fact that Ukraine’s StratCom campaigns have decisively contributed to supporting its resistance in the first year of constant attacks from an undeniably stronger enemy.

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Press under pressure: framing of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the Slovak press

Author(s): Andrej Habiňák / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2024

Theories of media effects represent a key area of research within media and communication studies that deals with the way media contents influence the cognitive, affective and behavioural responses of individuals, as well as their wider social and cultural impacts on society. Fundamental theories include agenda-setting, framing and priming. These theories provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the powerful effects of the media on the formation of public opinion, social norms, and political processes, emphasising the critical importance of readers’ media literacy. The present study primarily focuses on framing. It represents a key concept in the field of communication and media studies, which describes how the way information is presented can influence an audience’s perception and decision-making. This article examines different dimensions of framing, including its use in print media informing about the ongoing war in Ukraine, and analyses to what extent framing can be considered a manipulative tool. Through the analysis of media theory in this area and Slovak print media, this article provides certain insight on framing as a phenomenon that plays a fundamental role in the formation of public opinion and explores its potential linguistic and ethical implications. In conclusion, the author proposes concepts that could help minimise the risk of the manipulative use of framing.

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Shaping perceptions: a study of Ukraine and Ukrainians in Slovak media throughout two years of war

Author(s): Mariana Kitsa / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2024

This article presents the results of quantitative, qualitative and comparative analysis of the portrayal of Ukraine and Ukrainians in the Slovak media, shedding light on the nuanced dynamics of cross-border perceptions and media representations. The main method of research was a content analysis of two Slovak media – Denník N and Hospodárske noviny. The print and online versions of these media were examined for November and December 2022 and 2023, and April 2024. In total, 600 publications were examined in detail (N = 600). The findings reveal a complex and multifaceted picture of how Ukraine and its people are depicted in the Slovak media. The analysis identifies recurring themes of the war in Ukraine from different aspects, such as the situation on the battlefield, the humanitarian crisis, the attitude to the refugees, etc. The typical topics, genres as well as the image of Ukrainians are outlined.

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AI in communication: theoretical perspectives, ethical implications, and emerging competencies

Author(s): Aleksandra Mirek-Rogowska,Wojciech KUCZA,Krzysztof Gajdka / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming communication processes across various sectors, including marketing, education, healthcare, and entertainment. This study explores the theoretical perspectives surrounding AI’s integration into communication, examining how AI-driven tools such as ChatGPT, MidJourney, and Google Gemini are reshaping content creation, personalisation, and human-machine interaction. While AI enhances efficiency and allows for real-time customisation of messages, it also presents ethical challenges related to privacy, data security, and algorithmic bias. By synthesising key academic studies, the study outlines the critical ethical considerations, including the risks of deepfakes and disinformation, and emphasises the need for ethical frameworks to guide responsible AI use. The text also discusses the new digital competencies required to navigate AI-enhanced communication environments, such as AI literacy, data proficiency, and ethical reasoning. Through a systematic literature review, this study contributes to the ongoing discourse on AI’s role in communication by offering a comprehensive theoretical framework that highlights both the opportunities and limitations of AI technologies. Future research should focus on addressing gaps in empirical studies, particularly concerning the long-term impacts of AI on decision-making and the ethical governance of AI-generated content.

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THREAT ACTORS SEEKING TO EXPLOIT AI CAPABILITIES. TYPES AND THEIR GOALS

Author(s): Petru-Dan KOVACI / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2023

Artificial Intelligence’s advancement has led to ethical and privacy concerns due to the ability of algorithms to mine personal data and conduct surveillance on a large scale. The influence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in cybersecurity extends beyond private entities and individuals. In this scenario, it is important to highlight the threatening actors and their objectives in order to counter AI-based cyber threats. We are dealing with different entities, each having its own interests: cybercriminals are interested in making profit, terrorist groups cause ideological violence and nation-states target geopolitical influence. Moreover, they are increasingly interested in developing AI-driven cyber warfare capabilities for either attacking their enemies or enhancing their defence measures against such attacks. This trend will most likely aggravate the global cyber arms race as countries compete to surpass each other in the development and deployment of AI-driven cyber capabilities. Consequently, it has become crucial for organizations and individuals to understand how AI affects cybersecurity and, thus, adapt their strategies accordingly. Traditional defences must be supplemented with AI-powered tools and techniques to stay ahead of the curve, while security experts must continually update their skills and expertise to cope with the changing threat landscape.

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