ROMANIAN ECONOMY PROFILE BASED ON A STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS

Author(s): Oana Simona Hudea (Caraman) / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2015

The paper captures, based on a simplified, small–size dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and on Bayesian instruments, the evolution of the Romanian economy since the beginning of this century. The depicted economy is governed by basic representative agents: household, firm, financial organism, embodied by banks, and monetary authority, playing subsidiary role. Two shocks are considered, the technology real shock and the money stock nominal shock, both a of them impacting the economy and changing the trajectory of the relevant economic variables. The steady–state return time of the model variables and the estimates of the parameters allow us to set the pattern of future economic trends and to make pertinent decisions so as to attain sustainable macro–stabilization.

THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON BROWNFIELD INVESTMENT IN SERBIA

Author(s): Borislav Radević,Safet Kurtović,Boris Siljković / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2015

The paper analyzes cross-section data for Serbia in the time period from 2005 to 2013. It applies multiple regression technique and measures the impact of macroeconomic variables on attracting foreign investments in brownfield sites in Serbia. The research has shown that macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment rate, average annual wages, gross domestic product, consumer price and exchange rate are statistically significant, while real GDP growth, subsidies and other transfers are statistically insignificant.

LE SECTEUR ASSURANTIEL ALGERIEN ET SON IMPACT SUR LA CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE DE (1974 - 2011)

Author(s): Sadi Nour el Houda,Achouche Mohamed / Language(s): French Issue: 2 (31)/2016

The objective of this paper is to determine the factors affecting the level of insurance using different models and econometric techniques on data for the period 1974-2011. The results of the MCO indicate that the real density depends positively on real GDP per capita, the liquidity ratio and the life expectancy and negatively on the level of study. The test of Granger causality does not indicate a causal relationship between the real density and real GDP per capita. The application of the VECM indicates the presence of long and short-term relationship between actual density and GDP per capita. premiums, in Algeria, and especially to analyze the causal relationship between the insurance sector and economic growth,

Does variety matter? Export pattern of Poland prior and after accession to the EU

Author(s): Tomasz Brodzicki / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2015

The goal of this article is to investigate the role of product variety and changes in product variety in the pattern of exports of Poland a middle-sized open economy in the second phase of economic transition to a benchmark group of EU15 Member States in the period preceding and following the EU accession. Accession can be considered as an exogenous shock to economic system leading to necessary adjustments in trade relations between countries. We purposefully do not take into account the years affected by global financial crisis. The analysis covers the period 1999-2006 and is carried out on highly disaggregated trade and sectoral data. In the analysis we utilize both simple product count approach as well as more complex index of relative variety of products. Attention is given to the scope and structure of intra-industry trade. The overall product variety in exports to EU15 as measured by simple product counts is found to have decreased while relative product variety in comparison to EU15 Member States remained at roughly unchanged level. Furthermore we investigate the link between the changes in export variety and the growth of TFP in Polish manufacturing industry sectors. The conclusions are drawn from dynamic panel data model controlling for several features suggested by the literature of the subject.

GRANULAR CALCULATIONS IN THE REQUIREMENT ANALYSIS OF THE POLISH MARKET

Author(s): Aneta Becker,Jarosław Becker,Ryszard Budziński / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2015

The article presents the results of the analysis of the labour market requirements reported by Polish employers. Relations between the type of specialty, enhanced by the competence profile, and the requirement of proficiency in English were sought. The empirical material came from the research implemented within the “Human Capital Balance” project (V edition – 2014). The research procedure consisted of grouping objects with the method of k-means and the induction of decision rules based on the application of theories of rough sets. The analysis was performed using the RSES 2.1 system.

SHORT TERM AGGREGATED SUPPLY CURVES FOR OECD COUNTRIES IN 1991 – 2013

Author(s): Dariusz J. Błaszczuk / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2015

Politicians used to determine such macroeconomic targets as GDP growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate. They are interested in relationships between: unemployment rate and GDP growth rate (the Okun’s law), unemployment rate and inflation rate (the Philips curve) as well as between inflation rate and GDP growth rate (aggregate supply curve - SAS), put forth directly, eg. a straight line or a parabola, or indirectly, i.e. as a function Okun’s with inserted Philips function. SAS derived from the Okun’s and Philips curves estimated for OECD countries in the period 1991 to 2013 are analysed vis a vis curves reflecting direct relationships.

MODEL-ORIENTED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM AND FUZZY INFORMATION PROCESSING FOR INCREASING EFFICIENCY OF UNIVERSITY – IT-COMPANY CONSORTIA

Author(s): Yuriy P. Kondratenko,Galyna V. Kondratenko,Ievgen V. Sidenko,Vyacheslav S. Kharchenko / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2015

In the paper the existing approaches for improving abovementioned collaboration processes, technologies and methodologies based on efficient methods of optimization and decision making, modern computer-based systems and Internet opportunities are been discussed. The main contribution of the authors in this paper is a structure of computerized decision making system (CDMS) which can help partners from education and industry to find the best model of university – IT-company consortia from proposed set of efficient models A1, A2, B, C and their rational combinations.

Društvena preduzeća i mjerenje njihovog društvenog utjecaja

Author(s): Fehrat Hrustić / Language(s): Bosnian,Croatian Issue: 11/2014

The article talks about the to contemporary understanding of social enterprises and measuring of their impact in local communities given their increasing growth and social significance. The first part is dedicated to the concept, creation and development of social enterprises where they presented some definitions of social enterprises and a brief history of their origin and development of the second half of the 18th century to the present. The second part focuses on some fundamental differences in operation between the public and private for­profit companies which are especially pronounced those differences relating to the mission and goals of the formation and operation. The third section gives an overview of the social and economic criteria for evaluating social enterprises considering their importance for understanding the meaning and importance of social enterprises in modern conditions. The fourth part of the work treats the measurement of the social impact of social enterprises with regard to "mix of environmental, social and economic / financial dimension" using socially responsible accounting and social auditing. In the entire paper strongly emphasizes increasing need for establishing and developing social enterprises because it is proven that they contribute significantly to to reducing poverty, increasing employment and reducing social exclusion of individuals and groups.

QUANTIFYING THE ECONOMIC PARAMETERS AS INDICATORS OF OPTIMAL MOMENT OF SERBIA'S ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION

Author(s): Zenaida Šabotić,Srđan Marinković,Dragić Banković / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2016

The process of joining the European Union is largely driven by the procedures developed clearly and in graet detail, and at first glance it may appear that the entire process does not have much room for creative functioning of national monetary authorities. However, given the duration of this process, the sequence of steps and preparatory actions have become an important aspect of the overall process, which is the responsibility of the candidate countries. The decision about the future steps should be made on the basis of an objective scientific analysis, based on the quantitative economic indicators. Therefore, it is very important for any prospective member states to determine the optimal moment of accession to the European Union, and later to the European Monetary Union, in terms of minimizing the adjustment costs, and maximizing the benefits of the future membership. The aim is to determine the optimal moment of Serbia's accession to the European Union, from the economic aspect, i.e. reaching the numerical values of the key macroeconomic data that were singled out as the most important indicators in this process.

MEASURING CORRUPTION – KEY ISSUES, DATA SOURCES AND THE MOST COMMONLY USED INDICATORS

Author(s): Danilo Lučić,Nataša Golubović,Marija Džunić / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2016

Corruption is a complex social phenomenon with multiple negative effects on the socio-economic efficiency. Therefore, it is a subject of research in various social disciplines. In economic analysis, special attention is directed towards corruption measurement. Despite numerous attempts, this issue has not been completely resolved. Since corruption is a phenomenon that cannot be directly observed, its measurement is based on indirect signals and subjective perceptions. Key problems in measuring corruption relate to the lack of objective data, estimation errors and the problems of establishing a clear link between the measurement results and effective anti-corruption policies. The aim of this paper is to highlight the basic methodological problems and limitations in measuring corruption and provide a theoretical overview of the existing research in this field.

Trends in Household Consumption Inequalities in Slovakia: Empirical Evidence

Author(s): Brian König,Gabriela Dováľová / Language(s): English Issue: 03/2016

The article deals with consumption inequalities in Slovakia. Analysing house¬hold consumption behaviour is very important due to the existence of linkages between consumption and development on the labour market and it is also particularly important in regard to population ageing, as Slovakia belongs to the group of EU Member States moving from the youngest population at present to the oldest ones in the future. Through identifying expenditure elasticities by employing the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) in the analysis of nine groups of consumer goods and services we were able to define what low and high income households consider luxury goods and necessity goods. The results suggest that the development of income inequalities in Slovakia is not fully traced by consumption inequalities and that the financial and economic crisis has played an important role in determining consumption inequalities between low and high income households.

Socio-economic Status and its Effect on Value-added

Author(s): Juraj Falath,Zuzana Juščáková / Language(s): English Issue: 03/2016

The Lisbon strategy requires European education systems to produce appli-cable graduates in present environment of the increasing competitiveness and social cohesion. Inclusive growth starts with providing effective education to all children regardless of sex, disabilities or socio-economic status (SES). We present the methodology of identifying the value-added as one of the indicators of school effectiveness. In the sample of 26 schools and 1 229 pupils we observe their results in nationwide cognitive testing, information about family background and attitudes. We aim to explain disproportions between schools in the context of equal access to education.

Within-couple Financial Satisfaction in the Czech Republic: A Test of Income Pooling Hypothesis

Author(s): Martina Mysíková / Language(s): English Issue: 04/2016

This paper uses the national EU-SILC 2013 data to analyse the impact of the distribution of personal income between partners on reported financial well-being of couples in the Czech Republic. It focuses on partners in two life stages: couples raising children and couples with empty nests. On average, women contribute substantially less to the household budget than men and their financial satisfaction is slightly lower. Financial satisfaction of partners with children is not influenced by who brings the income. In a childless household, the higher the woman’s contribution, the lower the man’s satisfaction with the financial situation relatively to hers.

Accuracy of Models Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy in a Selected Industry Branch

Author(s): Dagmar Čámska / Language(s): English Issue: 04/2016

The paper's main aim is an accuracy verification of dozens models predicting financial distress. The evaluated models were created in the past in developed countries and especially in transition economies. High probability of bankruptcy does not affect only an ailing enterprise itself but it also influences other business related entities or counterparties and therefore the results provided by models predicting financial distress have their serious usage as scoring models. Models predicting financial distress help the decision making process by predicting future development of selected business entities. Research hypotheses are based on the idea that already existing models predicting financial distress still have enough explanatory power and accuracy for decision making and there is no need for the creation of a new one. The research should answer the question which models should nowadays be recommended the most for practical use. The paper uses for the verification tools such as Type I Error, Type II Error, ROC Curves and related AuROC coefficients.

Industry Vietnam 2005-2014: Status, Issues and Development Orientation

Author(s): Nguyen Thi To Quyen / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2016

Although with a low starting point, Vietnam’s industry has achieved positive results with the average growth rate of over 10% per year, a positive contribution to the economic- social development in Vietnam. However, from 2010 to now, the average growth rate of industrial output value has declined. In fact, growth of industry that bases on outsourcing (outputs of manufacturing based on mainly inputs from foreign markets) has lasted for many years. This has clearly revealed the inefficiency and lack of sustainability of the domestic industry. Vietnam's industry is currently characterized by the industries belong to first generation, including industrial products that using more labor, unskilled labor and the products of industry that base on outsourcing). The imbalance in industrial structure of Vietnam is one of the problems noted in the recent years. This is reflected in the lack of supporting industries to manufacture capital goods and industries have high scientific content. In addition, development of industries still has spread over country, lack of key industries to make tower cranes for the development of whole industry. Therefore, in order to become a developed industrial country with over 80 million inhabitants, Vietnam’s industry require to have an accelerated development strategy and reasonable implement policy.

Privatizacija u Srbiji

Author(s): Danilo Rončević,Marija Đukić / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 3/2015

Braunfild investicije u Republici Srbiji

Author(s): Srećko M. Bačevac,Želimir Ilić,Nevena P. Veselinović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 7/2015

Foreign direct investments (FDI) represent an important development factor in the developing countries. The Republic of Serbia, as a country in transition, considers FDI as one of the most important factors of the economic development. Furthermore, from the investors' perspective foreign direct investments are of great importance, especially in the sphere of confidence-building in other countries and the favourable economic climate in our country, all regarding future lucrative investments. The benefits from increasing foreign direct investments in Serbia include the following: the launch of technology transfers and spillovers to the domestic economy, the assistance in development of human resources and management skills, the contribution to the involvement in the international trade and the increase of exports. Moreover, FDI would help create more competitive environment and develop an entrepreneurial culture, all for the purpose of achieving economic growth.

INNOVATIONS AS A DETERMINANT OF COMPETITIVENESS OF SERBIA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITH WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Author(s): Bojan Krstić,Jelena Stanojević,Tanja Stanišić / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2016

Innovations, as a determinant of competitiveness, are one of the fundamental presuppositions for the economic prosperity of every country and the well-being of the population. The creators of the development policies need adequate information relating to all vital determinants of competitiveness, including innovations, in order to formulate effective policies and strategies. Therefore, the World Economic Forum (WEF) annually prepares and presents the Global Competitiveness Report. Thus, based on the information from the WEF reports, the paper explores changes in the level of competitiveness of Serbia (measured by the Global Competitiveness Index - GCI) for the period from 2009 to 2014, in comparison with other Western Balkan countries. Also, an in-depth analysis of the competitiveness of Serbia is carried out in the subindex “Innovation and sophistication factors” as a component of the GCI, considering that in 2014 this subindex for Serbia recorded the lowest value compared with other two subindexes within the GCI (“Basic Requirements” and “Efficiency Enhancers”), and also with other Western Balkan countries. Therefore, there is a need for urgent and significant improvements in the field of innovations as a relevant factor of the GCI in order to improve Serbia's position in the world’s rankings of competitiveness, but also Serbia's position in relation to the more successful countries in the Western Balkans. The goal of the analysis in this paper is to identify the position of Serbia in comparison with other Western Balkan countries in terms of overall competitiveness, and especially in the field of innovation and business sophistication factors as the determinants of the achieved level of national competitiveness. The methods used in this research are the following: descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and benchmarking. The research results show that Serbia has in the aforementioned period achieved an unenviable level of competitiveness. This research can be useful for the creators of development policy for future guidance of the economic and social development of Serbia.

УТИЦАЈ ДЕВИЗНОГ КУРСА НА ТРГОВИНСКИ БИЛАНС ИЗМЕЂУ СРБИЈЕ И ЕВРОЗОНЕ: ЕФЕКАТ Ј КРИВЕ

Author(s): Predrag Petrović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 3/2016

This paper is dedicated to the research of the effects of the J curve in the scope of Serbia – Eurozone trade balance in the period between 2006 and 2014. The analysis has been conducted based on the concept of time series cointegration, using АRDL bounds testing approach, after which the robustness of the obtained findings was checked by estimation of the ARDL model at the level of first differences. The obtained results provide for quite reliable proofs that the J curve effects exist between Serbia and Eurozone, i.e. that short-term influence of real exchange rate to trade balance is negative, while long-term one is positive. These findings are quite reliable, although they are not completely confirmed through the estimation of the ARDL model at the first difference levels, since the testing has been conducted using critical values simulated for small samples.

Индекс људског развоја као показатељ достигнутог развоја Србије

Author(s): Boban Dašić / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 1/2016

Human Development Index as a composite measure of development has led to the purely economic measurement of national progress. From its inception until today, the index of human development has undergone some changes the calculation of individual indicators. However, despite the improvement and innovation of the methodology of calculating the index of human development, he will never perfectly capture the human (human) development in its fullest sense. In this work will be performed analysis of global trends in the index of human development, with special emphasis on Serbia and to emphasize the importance of applying the same. Depending on the rank of the index of human development, economic policy makers of national economies under take additional efforts to maintain the kind of development that will improve everyone's quality of life.