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CSD Policy Brief No. 18: Better Governance for Sustainable Energy Sector of Bulgaria: Diversification and Security

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Energy is the lifeblood of any economy: oil, gas and electricity are critical to a functioning and growing nation. For all nations, economic and social well‐being depends on safe, affordable and dependable supplies of energy. It becomes very clear, then, that the question of energy security is not just a question of economic security, but of national security as well. // The Bulgarian energy sector is key for the future development of the country’s economy. For the past decade energy exports and imports formed on average 12% (16% in 2008) and 21% (22% in 2008) of the value of the country’s outgoing and incoming trade flows respectively1. Every fourth public procurement contract is concluded in the energy sector, making it one of the biggest taxpayers’ money spenders in the country. In 2008, in a single year, the Bulgarian government committed to energy projects, requiring budgetary investments equal in value to the whole EU funds support for the country for the current European seven‐year budget period 2007 – 2013.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 19: Energy Strategy of Bulgaria 2020: a better Governance Perspective

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Energy is a key sector for Bulgarian economy, both because of its size and because of its importance to national competitiveness. This requires decisions to be made on the basis of reliable and accessible data, broad based discussions and clearly identified strategic priorities, which rely on established practices and mechanisms for good governance. The latest strategic document at national level is the Bulgarian Energy Strategy from 2002. Without updating it, the Bulgarian government has committed in the years following its EU accession to substantial investments with long‐term impact on the energy sector, which is a vivid example of failure in good governance. Bulgaria’s membership in the European Union (EU), climate change negotiations, the financial and economic crisis and Bulgaria’s inclusion in several international investment projects have changed the conditions for the development of Bulgaria’s energy sector. These latest developments require updating of the national energy strategy and providing for better and transparent governance in the sector.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 40: Bulgaria’s Energy Security Risk Index

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

MAIN POINTS ››› Energy security is of critical importance to Bulgaria. The biggest identified threat to Bulgarian national security is poverty, and in particular energy poverty. Bulgaria’s non-transparent energy sector seriously undermines the country’s economic development. Establishing regular sound monitoring mechanisms on energy security could be key for adequate policy-making in the area. ››› The Index of U.S. Energy Security Risk Indicator (IESRI), developed in 2012 by the Institute for 21st Century Energy at the American Chamber of Commerce shows that since 1980, Bulgaria has had one of the worst energy security risk index scores both nominally and compared to the OECD averages. Its scores over the period averaged about 158% higher than those for the OECD. ››› Bulgaria’s energy security risk index increased since 2010. This recent deterioration relative to OECD averages is based on the energy expenditure volatility of the Bulgarian economy that according to IESRI has increased more than 10 times in the last 3 years (since 2009), reaching in 2012 one of the highest levels since 1980). ››› Among the main risk factors to Bulgaria’s energy security is its high dependence on fossil fuels import, in particular in the gas sector. The very high concentration of the Bulgarian gas market (monopoly of supply and distribution) provides ample opportunities for rent-seeking. Bulgaria’s involvement in various national, smaller regional, and large international projects can reduce the risks to its energy security if it is based on clear-cut prioritization of preferred options following sound and transparent cost-benefit analysis.

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A “RESET” WITH ALGERIA: THE RUSSIA TO THE EU’S SOUTH

Author(s): Hakim Darbouche ,Susi Dennison / Language(s): English

There are striking similarities between the ways that Algeria and Russia have handled the EU, particularly since Abdelaziz Bouteflika came to power 12 years ago. Like Russia, Algeria is an important supplier of energy – in particular, natural gas – to Europe. As a result, it has traditionally enjoyed stronger relations with key member states, especially its energy clients, than with the EU as such. But Algeria’s current sense of vulnerability in a dramatically changing region presents a potential opening for increased European engagement and, over the long term, influence. It is important that the EU’s attention does not remain focused only on the other countries in the region that have been affected by the Arab revolutions in more obvious ways. // The EU is currently revising its European Neighbourhood Policy. But if Algeria does not engage fully with it, there is a risk that it could be isolated. However, the shifts currently taking place in Algeria and its neighbourhood create an opportunity for a “reset” in EU–Algerian relations. Such a reset could increase the EU’s ability to influence the course of domestic events in Algeria by using engagement to support economic modernisation and spread the rule of law. Over the longer term, as confidence builds on both sides, the EU could use a more functional relationship to increase its voice on the need for political reform.

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ENERGY COOPERATION BETWEEN ALBANIA AND SERBIA (Policy Brief 2016/04)

Author(s): Sokol Lleshi,Dritan Sulçebe / Language(s): English

The energy sector constitutes one of the most strategic sectors of the economy, which is part of the EU policy recently framed as Energy Union. The Western Balkan is considered an important area for the diversification of the energy production and transmission in Europe. This region increases the chances that the EU attains energy security. It has been a long term concern of the EU to reduce the energy dependency from external countries such as Russia. On the other hand, as in the case of most EU policies, the Energy Union and the relevant acquis on energy aim to initiate market reforms in the energy sector, to reduce the monopoly position of firms and state subsidies, and enhance cooperation on energy trade and exchange between countries as well as aim towards a coal-free energy production in a sustainable environment mostly based on renewable energy.

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№155: Gas Security in the Pipeline—Expectations and Realities

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English

The cooperation between Norway and Poland in the energy sector has recently taken very tangible shape. In 2016, Poland decided to launch the Northern Gate project—a set of gas interconnections aiming to link the Polish gas market with gas deposits on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. With that decision, Poland wants to diversify away from Russia to mitigate energy security and political risks connected with the high level of dependence on one supplier. But in terms of Polish-Norwegian cooperation, the question of security of gas supply that Poland wants to address is accompanied by the question of the security of gas demand, a key concern for gas producers such as Norway. Hence, cooperation in the gas sector examined from those two perspectives may actually bring benefits for both countries and promises of win-win cooperation.

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Australia and the Global LNG Market

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

An advantageous geographical location and liberalised trade in energy resources allow Australia to successfully compete for the most lucrative and promising liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets. Come 2020, Australia likely will be the world’s largest LNG supplier. However, its domestic LNG industry will have to face the challenge of securing enough natural gas for export. For LNG importers like Poland, the success of those efforts would ensure favourable market conditions.

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Challenging the European Commission Decision on the Opal Gas Pipeline

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

The European Commission decision permitting Gazprom to use a greater capacity of the Opal pipeline than it already does is based on the erroneous assumption that this will help enhance both security and competition in the supply of natural gas. The Commission evaluates the circumstances of the case incorrectly and ignores changes to EU energy legislation. Poland should consider challenging this decision before the EU Court of Justice, or intervening in a case already brought before the Court by private entities.

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The Domino Effect: Impact of the Global Climate Agreement on Post-2020 EU Emissions Trading Scheme Reform

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Julia Michalak / Language(s): English

At the end of 2015 a landmark climate accord was adopted at the COP21 climate summit in Paris. The Paris Agreement may significantly impact the ongoing debate about the post-2020 reform of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme, proposed by the European Commission in mid-2015. To reflect the Paris Agreement in the EU’s domestic policies, some Member States may advocate strengthening the Commission’s proposal. In such a scenario the Polish government should call for an increase of the Modernisation Fund and auction allowance redistribution rules, supporting energy transition in lower-income Member States.

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EU Winter Gas Package: The Next Phase of the Struggle to Strengthen Energy Resilience

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Witold Gruszczyński,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

In February 2016, the European Commission will present the Winter Gas Package, which is a real opportunity to strengthen the security of European gas consumers. The coming months will bring intense negotiations on essential details of documents that will determine the EU’s resilience to disruptions of gas supplies and influence the EU’s bargaining power in relation to third countries. The EC’s proposal contains several points included in Poland’s 2014 energy union concept, and hence, the Polish administration should be actively involved in shaping the contents of the package.

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Negotiating Challenges during the Paris Climate Conference

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

On 30 November, world leaders will gather in Paris for the 21st Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in the hope of reaching a new global deal. There is positive political momentum for an agreement on how to tackle climate change, but the pressure on negotiators is growing and the thorniest issues, such as financing, compliance, and long-term mitigation and adaptation targets are still to be addressed. For the EU, only an ambitious agreement at COP 21 would be beneficial, whereas for Poland, any world-wide agreement can bring short-term political and economic benefits.

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Wzburzone wody – Europejski rynek gazu w czasie pandemii

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): Polish

The pandemic and measures to limit its spread are changing drastically worldwide and the European economic situation. While their final effects are unknown, they are already bouncing back on the functioning of energy markets. Demand for gas is declining - in Italy, France and Germany in the second half of March by a dozen to over 20%. At the same time, the oversupply of raw material is growing, which is what is as a result of the accelerated production in the world and increasing LNG export, and in Europe also a derivative reduced imports of Asian recipients due to the pandemic. In March, LNG deliveries to Europe reached a record volume - approx. 15 billion m3. As a result, the prices of raw materials on the stock exchanges drop to exceptionally low levels. The situation on the market is hitting exporters and will have an impact on investments and supply of raw material. LNG suppliers, including those from the USA, are primarily affected. The crisis is not however, it bypasses traditional exporters to the European market (Russia, Norway), and low oil prices will translate the fall (with a delay) of the related gas prices in long-term contracts.

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Wisagińska EIektrownia Jądrowa – inwestycja wciąż wysokiego ryzyka

Author(s): Joanna Hyndle-Hussein / Language(s): Polish

On June 21, the Lithuanian Parliament approved the construction project of a new nuclear power plant in Visaginas, Lithuania. The deputies agreed that the government would sign the initialed on 30 March 2012, a concession agreement with the Japanese company Hitachi Ltd., which took the position of a strategic investor and will deliver a modern reactor with a capacity of 1350 MW. The Lithuanian authorities did not succeed in their original intention to attract a Western investor to the project, willing to take over in it 51% of shares. Pursuant to the agreement, Hitachi is to hold only 20% of the future shares power plant, the initial cost of which is estimated at EUR 5 billion. Despite Hitachi's lower-than-announced financial commitment, its share as an investor and supplier of a modern reactor is to constitute a guarantee that the implementation of the project is economically viable. Most of the financial risk, however, will be borne by Lithuania itself will take up 38% of the power plant's shares. Participation negotiations are currently underway in the project of power companies from the Baltic region. Estonia would like to cover 22% and Latvia 20%. Approval of the Lithuanian Seimas for the government's plans to build a power plant and the agreement with Hitachi does not yet determine the implementation of the investment. final the decision to start construction is to be made in 2015 and that's it time, one should expect intensified actions by opponents of the project. On July 14, opposition deputies managed to push through the holding together with the parliamentary elections in Lithuania, scheduled for October 14, consultative referendum on the construction of Visaginas. NO it will have binding force, but it may have, together with the following ones initiatives of opponents of the nuclear power plant, impact on opportunities project implementation.

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Ochrona klimatu – specjalność niemieckiego eksportu i dyplomacji

Author(s): Rafał Bajczuk / Language(s): Polish

Germany is one of the biggest promoters of climate protection policy and the development of green technologies, which initiated the next wave of innovation in the German economy and the emergence of a new branch of export industry (after the revolution related to the development of electronics in the 1950s and 1960s and information technology in the 80s and 90s). Government reports and independent research in Germany show that German entrepreneurs today have a 15% share in the global market green technologies, and in the following years this share will be maintained. However, the image of Germany the "prime" in the field of climate policy is disturbed by disputes over ambitious reduction targets emissions proposed by the European Commission. German industrial lobby represented in the government by the Ministry of Economy calls for a slower rate of emission reduction as well reducing the costs associated with this process so that the competitiveness of the traditional ones does not suffer German industries on the global market.

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Unplugged. The uncertain future of electromobility in Germany

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

The German electric car market has seen a rapid growth over the past few years, with the country becoming the undisputed electromobility leader in Europe. This success has largely been possible thanks to generous subsidies for electric vehicle purchases. However, the German government’s sudden decision in December 2023 to end the subsidy programme has cast doubt on the further development of electromobility in this country. Both the industry itself and experts anticipate that this decision will have a negative impact on sales in this market sector for up to two years.

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The effect of the sanctions: the Russian LNG sector’s problems

Author(s): Filip Rudnik / Language(s): English

The successive moves to tighten the Western sanctions regime targeting the Russian LNG sector have aggravated the problems affecting it as it faces major difficulties which are jeopardising its further development. The technology embargo and other restrictions have resulted in delays in the construction of new liquefaction installations and in the multiplication of challenges regarding logistics and funding. The sanctions are also generating additional costs for the state and reducing its gas revenues.

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Key to the future of the Energiewende: support for building new power plants

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

It took many weeks of negotiations for the leaders of the SPD-Greens-FDP coalition to reach a compromise on the strategy for building new power plants, which are intended to complement renewable energy sources (RESs) and enable the final phase-out of coal. The first step in this direction is to provide financial support for investments in gas power plants with a total capacity of 10 GW which can be transitioned to hydrogen, followed by the development of a capacity market concept, which is expected to come into effect no later than 2028. The agreement is quite general in nature, but nevertheless it marks a political breakthrough. However, many decisions on the key details will still have to be made in the future, which means that tough negotiations within the coalition must be undertaken, and the entire mechanism will still need to be approved by the European Commission (EC). The scale of support for the construction of new power plants, which is much smaller than originally envisaged, means that Germany can no longer be expected to phase out coal by 2030. Nevertheless, this is a top-priority initiative in Germany’s energy policy in this parliamentary term, and failure to implement it will prevent the process of the Energiewende from continuing.

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Fear of retaliation: Germany’s concerns about punitive tariffs on electric cars from China

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The European Union is nearing a decision on whether to impose restrictions on imports of electric cars from China. The German automotive industry is observing this scenario with apprehension as it expects both retaliation from the government in Beijing and a further erosion of its position on the Chinese market, which is crucial for its turnover and profits. Germany’s federal government has taken due consideration of the need to protect the EU’s competition rules and the development of e-mobility, but it also fears retaliation from China, and in particular, its spillover into other sectors of the economy.

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Paradise lost? Falling foreign investments in China

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

The People’s Bank of China has reported that the third quarter of 2023 saw an outflow of foreign direct investment (FDI); this is the first time this has happened in at least 25 years. However, these data do not fully reflect real economic processes. Foreign companies have long appreciated China due to the appealing business conditions on offer. However, the investment climate in this country has been deteriorating in recent years due to Beijing’s domestic policy and its escalating rivalry with Washington. The People's Republic of China led by Xi Jinping has given special priority to economic security, introducing a number of regulations that have adversely affected foreign investors. However, business circles, encouraged by the US and EU authorities to de-risk, have responded to the mounting challenges in different ways. Some companies are cutting investments to reduce the risks associated with their strong ties to the Chinese market, others are increasing expenditure to strengthen and isolate their Chinese operations. Getting the proportions right is a challenge, but a complex mosaic of data paints a picture of a structural decline in FDI in China. FDI indicators may improve in the coming years, but structural processes motivated by economic calculation and political pressure will probably lead to further restrictions on investments in China as part of a gradual, comprehensive reduction of the dependence of foreign business on the Chinese industrial base.

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Provocările pieței produselor petrolierele din Republica Moldova: prețuri vs. calitate

Author(s): Ion Gumene / Language(s): Romanian

The dissatisfaction expressed by consumers towards the increase in the prices of the main petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) already has a systemic character. The increase of about 5% in the prices of these products, operated by the oil companies in the middle of May of the current year, was not an exception, thus causing a new wave of polemics in society. According to the explanations, which were not expected from the oil companies, the increase was caused by the increase in prices on international exchanges, but also by the depreciation of the Moldovan leu in relation to the US dollar. … In this context, we set out to analyze the latest developments that took place on the domestic and foreign petroleum products markets, while highlighting their defining elements.

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