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Inevitable Transition: EU’s 2050 Climate Strategy

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

The EU is preparing a long-term climate strategy for 2050 with a view to a comprehensive transition to a low- or zero-emission economy. Although EU countries are divided about the scale and pace of the actions, the direction is inevitable. This creates opportunities for Poland to obtain additional funds for a “just transition” and benefit from a boost in the domestic clean energy technologies market.

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Skazani na transformację – strategia klimatyczna UE 2050

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

Unia Europejska przygotowuje długoterminową strategię klimatyczną do 2050 r. w celu kompleksowej zmiany gospodarki na nisko- lub zeroemisyjną. Choć państwa UE są podzielone w kwestii skali ambicji i szybkości działań, transformacja jest nieuchronna. Dla Polski stwarza to szansę na pozyskanie dodatkowych funduszy na „sprawiedliwą transformację” oraz czerpanie korzyści z tworzenia rynku czystych technologii.

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#mission2030: Austria’s Strategy for a Low-Carbon Transformation

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

The Austrian government is implementing its energy and climate strategy to 2030, the aim of which is to stimulate the economy and achieve energy independence through the use of clean technologies. The strategy signals potential points of contention with Poland, including in nuclear and coal energy. At the same time, it indicates potential fields of cooperation regarding low-emission transport.

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Austriacka strategia niskoemisyjnej transformacji „#mission2030”

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

Rząd austriacki wdraża strategię energetyczno-klimatyczną, której celem jest pobudzenie gospodarki i osiągnięcie niezależności energetycznej poprzez wykorzystywanie czystych technologii. Strategia sygnalizuje potencjalne punkty sporne z Polską, m.in. w energetyce jądrowej i węglowej. Jednocześnie wskazuje pola możliwej współpracy w dziedzinie niskoemisyjnego transportu.

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Germany’s Energiewende: No Abandonment, Just Revision

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

The coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD on the creation of a new government confirmed that Germany has a problem with implementation of its energy transformation policy. However, this fact neither means a departure from Energiewende, nor a change in its assumptions. The new government will revise the strategy and focus on the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. In the European Union, Germany will remain the promoter of ambitious climate and energy policy.

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Energiewende – realistyczna korekta

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): Polish

Rozmowy między CDU/CSU i SPD o utworzeniu nowej koalicji potwierdziły, że Niemcy mają problem z realizacją polityki transformacji energetycznej. Nie oznacza to jednak odejścia od Energiewende ani podważenia jej założeń. Nowy rząd skoryguje strategię i skoncentruje się na celach redukcji emisji gazów cieplarnianych do 2030 r. W Unii Europejskiej Niemcy pozostaną promotorem ambitnej polityki klimatyczno-energetycznej.

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Samochody elektryczne w Niemczech – jazda pod prąd

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): Polish

Elektryfikacja transportu staje się jednym z głównych zadań polityki gospodarczej Niemiec. Ma pomóc niemieckiemu przemysłowi w utrzymaniu jego globalnej pozycji oraz przyspieszyć realizację Energiewende. Jednak tradycyjny sektor motoryzacyjny, chcąc spowolnić zwrot ku samochodom elektrycznym, będzie przekonywał o konieczności dekarbonizacji silnika Diesla. Rozwój niemieckiej elektromobilności może być dla Polski okazją do promowania wspólnych rozwiązań na forum UE. Stanowi jednak wyzwanie dla polskich dostawców powiązanych z niemieckim przemysłem samochodowym.

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Gaz dla transportu – nowy rynek Gazpromu

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): Polish

W nadchodzących latach gaz ziemny będzie coraz popularniejszym paliwem w transporcie drogowym i morskim. Trend ten dostrzega Gazprom, inwestując nie tylko w duże gazociągi, jak Nord Stream II, ale też w takie projekty, jak terminale LNG małej skali (ssLNG), pozwalające dostarczać gaz mniejszym odbiorcom. Strategia koncernu zapewni mu w przyszłości udział w rynku na konkurencyjnych zasadach. Rosyjska aktywność w tym segmencie może stanowić wyzwanie dla polskich portów i skomplikować plany szerszego zastosowania gazu w krajowym transporcie.

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Możliwości zaskarżenia decyzji Komisji Europejskiej w sprawie gazociągu OPAL

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): Polish

Decyzja Komisji Europejskiej dopuszczająca możliwość wykorzystania przez Gazprom wyższej niż dotychczas przepustowości gazociągu OPAL opiera się na błędnym założeniu, że przyczyni się to do zwiększenia bezpieczeństwa dostaw i konkurencji w dostawach gazu ziemnego. Komisja nieprawidłowo ocenia okoliczności sprawy i pomija zmiany, jakie zaszły w unijnym prawodawstwie energetycznym. Polska powinna rozważyć zaskarżenie tej decyzji do Trybunału Sprawiedliwości UE lub dołączenie do postępowania wytoczonego już przez podmioty prywatne.

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Wyzwania negocjacyjne podczas konferencji klimatycznej w Paryżu

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): Polish

30 listopada w Paryżu światowi przywódcy otworzą 21. Konferencję Stron (COP21), podczas której ma zostać wynegocjowane nowe globalne porozumienie na rzecz walki ze zmianami klimatycznymi. Wydaje się, że istnieje polityczna wola jego zawarcia, rośnie jednak presja na negocjatorów, którzy mają do rozstrzygnięcia najtrudniejsze zagadnienia, jak długoterminowe cele redukcji emisji i adaptacji oraz finansowanie działań klimatycznych. O ile UE dąży do ambitnego porozumienia, o tyle dla Polski także jego słabsza wersja może oznaczać korzyści polityczne i gospodarcze.

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EU Responds to Transatlantic Competition in Green Technologies

Author(s): Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act challenges the competitiveness of the European green technology sector. The European Commission (EC), through its Green Deal industrial plan, proposes to increase the production capacity of European industry by simplifying regulatory rules, accelerating access to finance, and other initiatives. The EU also aims to reduce its dependence on Chinese raw materials. An obstacle, though, is in the need to reconcile the differences between the Member States as to the direction of further EC actions, for example, in terms of financing the plan.

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States Successfully Conclude Negotiations of the High Seas Treaty

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz,Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

After two decades of discussions, UN states have completed work on a treaty on the conservation of ocean biodiversity, allowing the creation and management of protected areas in international waters. The agreement can help counter climate change, biodiversity loss, and ocean pollution. However, its real impact on the environment will depend on swift ratification and subsequent effective implementation.

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EU Retreats from Russian Nuclear Energy

Author(s): Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

The Russian nuclear energy sector continues to develop after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Exports of nuclear technology bring direct revenues to the state corporation Rosatom, which actively supports the war. That is why a group of EU countries (including Poland) proposed to put sanctions on the Russian nuclear energy sector. Efforts to phase out nuclear fuel from Russia in the EU are also progressing. Providing alternative sources of uranium enrichment and fuel production capacity is possible, but will be time consuming and costly.

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The Czech nuclear showdown enters the final straight

Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

The repeatedly delayed expansion of the Czech Republic’s nuclear power plants has recently started to take concrete shape. The next two years should see the signature of a binding contract for the construction of the fifth unit at the Dukovany nuclear power plant (NPP), which is expected to cover around 10% of the country’s electricity demand. There are long-term plans to build another unit at this plant, as well as two additional units at the other Czech nuclear power plant at Temelín. The US-Canadian company Westinghouse, France’s Framatome (EDF Group) and South Korea’s KHNP are bidding for the Dukovany contract. This line-up of potential contractors results from a decision by the previous government to exclude Russian and Chinese bidders from the tender. The Czech Republic has also taken other steps to wean itself off its dependence on Russia in the nuclear power sector: it has decided to replace the Russian supplier of nuclear fuel for the NPP Temelín and regained control of the key Czech nuclear company Škoda JS from a Kremlin-linked company.

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The Persian Gulf Monarchies and the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

In March, Muhammad bin Zaid (MBZ) and Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), de facto rulers of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, refused to answer Joe Biden’s call about the monarchies’ ability to increase oil production. Despite their declared neutrality, the positions of the Emirati and Saudi authorities regarding the war in Ukraine are becoming increasingly pro-Russian. The possible failure of further pressure from Western states on these monarchies would mean the beginning of a crisis in their relations with the EU and the United States.

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On the verge of blackout: Ukraine facing attacks on its electricity generation system

Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English

Ukraine’s power plants and electricity grid have been subjected to regular, massive shelling campaigns using ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones for the past three months. Although they have not so far brought about a permanent nationwide blackout, on several occasions they resulted in significant destabilisation of the grid’s operation. Increasingly frequent power outages (both planned and unplanned, usually lasting many hours) have become daily occurrences in almost all regions of Ukraine. In response to this, Kyiv has prepared measures to secure the state’s continued operation in situations of prolonged power outages. At the end of December 2022, a network of nearly 1500 banking outlets was established to provide banking services regardless of the situation. To ensure that other sectors of the economy can continue operating uninterrupted, filling station and mobile network operators have also taken similar measures. While it is impossible to predict whether Russia will attain its goal, namely to cause a complete and prolonged blackout of Ukraine, the attacks carried out so far have already had a very negative impact on the country’s economy. At the same time, there are no indications that the problems with electricity supplies will break the resistance of Ukrainian society or significantly boost migration.

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Romania's Energy Policy: Implementation of the Transformation Assumptions

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Romania supported the European Union's independence from Russian energy resources. The cut-off from Russian supplies would not be particularly severe for the Romanian economy, which is highly self-sufficient thanks to gas extraction and nuclear energy. Therefore, by supporting the EU's climate policy, Romania was simultaneously part of a coalition of states that persuaded the EU to include nuclear energy in its energy taxonomy. Maintaining Romania's independence will depend on resolving problems with the development of the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant and the extraction of gasfrom the Black Sea fields.

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The EU’s Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.

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Israel’s Mediterranean gas: the potential for gas export to Europe and the dynamic of regional cooperation

Author(s): Karolina Zielińska / Language(s): English

Once gas extraction from the Karish gas field starts, which is scheduled for September 2022,Israel will have a gas surplus enabling it to export around 10 bcm of this fuel to the European Union states every year. To this end, it intends to use the infrastructure connecting its gas fields with LNG terminals in Egypt, in line with the provisions of a Memorandum of Understanding which Egypt, Israel and the EU signed in June 2022. For the time being, no contracts with gas recipients in Europe have been signed, and no details regarding the price of gas sold to the EU have been provided. The continued development of Israel’s gas fields and the expansion of its infrastructure (pipelines and floating LNG platforms) will further increase the country’s export potential. The Israeli government intends to keep prioritising the country’s domestic demand. Despite its increasing commercial significance, the importance of the sale of gas to foreign partners is mainly of a political nature, as it helps to foster the development of relations in the region. Aside from Egypt, Israel’s major partners in the energy sphere include Cyprus, Greece and Jordan. The role of the United Arab Emirates in this context is also increasing. Hezbollah may pose a threat to gas export plans, as it has been pursuing Iran’s interests, which in the context of gas issues are convergent with those of Russia, and ties between these two countries are growing ever closer.

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A dangerous dependence on Russia. Germany and the gas crisis

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski / Language(s): English

The German economy is heavily dependent on natural gas, almost all of which it purchases from foreign suppliers. More than half of this is from Russia. For years, Germany underestimated the dangerous degree of its gas dependence on Russia because it was convinced that the two countries had common interests. The absence of the adequate diversification of supply sources has proven to be a mistake in Berlin’s energy policy. Stoked by Moscow, the European gas crisis has affected Germany and other countries. Combined with the threat of renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine, it made Germany increasingly aware of the scale of this dependence. Although the country’s energy cooperation with Russia will not change fundamentally in the short term, it is now more likely that Germany will take real action to reduce its vulnerability to similar crises in the future. Although it is likely to be only a provisional move, Berlin’s decision to freeze the certification process of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) indicates that its perception of Russia as a partner in energy cooperation is also changing.

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