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The Story of the Macedonian Heat Market – How to Reform It?

Author(s): Ana Stojilovska / Language(s): English

Being an EU candidate country brought many reforms in Macedonia including significant energy market restructuring. Having signed the Energy Community Treaty, the country is undergoing many institutional, market and legal reforms. In fact, the relevant energy legal acts have been adopted; new institutional and market actors have been set; and incentives for increasing the share of renewables and improving energy efficiency are being taken. However, the area which remained overshadowed by the other energy reforms is the heat market. Dominated by an extremely high consumption of electricity and partly supplied by an under-developed district heating (DH) which is in the hands of a dominant actor, the Macedonian heat market shows patterns of energy inefficiency and lack of vision for long-term development. In the context of increasing prices of the energy sources and heat bills, the customers are faced with ever growing worries of heating their homes and offices. Despite some developments in the heat sector, one of the possible solutions – the gasification process - progresses slowly and furthermore no significant structural reforms are planned, leaving this energy sector one of the most problematic in Macedonia. The aim of this research is to inspect possible policy solutions for reforming the Macedonian heat market and drafting policy recommendations to the respective Macedonian authorities for the purpose of improving the state of the heat market and heat consumers’ wellbeing.

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CSD Policy Brief No. 96: Accelerating the Energy Transition in Bulgaria: A Roadmap to 2050

Author(s): Martin Vladimirov,Radostina Primova,Mariya Trifonova / Language(s): English

Bulgaria has been caught between the EU’s net-zero carbon ambitions for 2030 and 2050 and the country’s slow democratisation and diffusion of renewables and energy efficiency. To develop effective policy measures, the Bulgarian government needs to draw evidence-based consistent decarbonisation pathways for each economic sector with annual targets for continuous monitoring. This is especially true considering that there is so far little connection between the government’s own strategic documents (i.e., the 2030 National Development Programme, the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and the National Energy and Climate Plan) and the EU’s long-term objectives for a low-carbon transition. This Policy Brief plots Bulgaria’s options along three scenarios with a 2050 horizon using an innovative decarbonisation transition modelling instrument, called The Calculator. It helps bridge the gap between the complicated integrated climate and energy models and the practical dilemmas of policy-makers preparing Bulgaria’s long-term decarbonisation strategy.

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Moldova Faces Down an Energy Crisis and Protests

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Western support has helped Moldova through a deep energy crisis. The crisis, manufactured by Russia by limiting gas supplies in winter, violating a contract, is part of an attempt to persuade the Moldovan public to join protests organised by the pro-Russian Şor Party. It is in Poland’s interests to ensure further support from the European Union for Moldova, as it would align with Moldovans' determination for a pro-European transformation.

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Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.

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Lignite in the Czech Republic and Germany: controversies and prospects

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski,Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English

Lignite still plays an important role in the Czech and German power industries, remaining one of their key sources of electricity. These countries, together with Poland, are the largest producers and consumers of this fuel in the EU. The share of lignite in both countries’ energy mix is trending downward under the influence of the EU’s climate policy ambitions, particularly the rising costs of CO2 emission allowances. The lignite industry in the Czech Republic and Germany is also linked to capital, with some mines in Eastern Germany being owned by Czech corporations. The activity of lignite-fired mines, power plants and heating plants in both countries has caused a number of controversies, including environmental ones. Local communities affected by the negative impact of the mines’ operation have engaged in protests, and the significance of environmental issues in national politics is also rising. Both Berlin and Prague are planning to stop mining and burning lignite. Germany has already set a coal exit date of 2038, and the debate in the Czech Republic is approaching a conclusion of setting the same date, or even five years earlier. The decision to give up using this fuel is posing socio-economic challenges for the coal regions, which face numerous structural problems.

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A hydrogen alliance? The potential for German-Russian cooperation in hydrogen energy

Author(s): Michał Kędzierski,Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Joint hydrogen energy projects are components of the comprehensive Russian-German energy cooperation which has been ongoing for more than five decades. Due to increasing demand for hydrogen resulting from Germany’s energy transition (Energiewende) and to the potential of the hydrogen sector in Russia and its focus on export, the fundamental interests of the two states are well aligned. In 2020, Moscow and Berlin stepped up their political dialogue in this field, and companies from Germany and Russia went on to conclude their first agreements. The new aspect of this cooperation with Berlin is also important to Moscow in political terms.

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TurkStream on the diversifying south-eastern European gas market

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota,Mateusz Seroka,Marta Szpala / Language(s): English

December 2020 saw the completion of another part (Bulgaria–Serbia) of the European section of the TurkStream gas pipeline, through which gas has been exported from Russia to south--eastern Europe since January 2020. The capacity of the entire route is not yet being fully used, but it has already reduced Russia’s dependence on transit via Ukraine. In 2020, around12 bcm of gas was sent via TurkStream instead of Ukrainian pipelines: half to Turkey, and the rest to Bulgaria, Greece and North Macedonia. Ultimately, the pipeline will also transport gas via Serbia to Hungary, Austria and Romania. The rapid implementation of the entire project, in a region where infrastructure investments usually take a long time, represents a success for the Kremlin. Neither the economic challenges linked to the COVID-19 pandemic nor the political opposition of the US to new links between Europe and Russia (which will mainly strike at the Nord Stream 2 pipeline) have got in the way of the project’s completion.

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Climate ambivalence: Russia’s climate change policy

Author(s): Szymon Kardaś / Language(s): English

Although the importance of global climate challenges is systematically growing, the actions which the Russian authorities have undertaken in this area to date have been very limited. Moscow has not evaded international cooperation to combat climate change, but at the same time it has not undertaken any very ambitious commitments in this regard. The benchmark for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that Russia has agreed to is exceptionally favourable to it. Thus, the reduction goals which the Kremlin has announced do not require the authorities to make radical changes to the Russian economy. Individual Russian companies are showing greater interest in the climate agenda, but it is difficult to consider the results of their activities as significant, especially compared to the experience of international companies. The measures undertaken to change the Russian energy mix are also poor: renewable energy sources only account for a marginal share in electricity production in Russia (in total, about 0.4%). It is true that the Russian authorities have begun to notice the importance of climate challenges; this has been confirmed, among other things, by the latest editions of the strategic documents regarding the development of the state. However, these documents do not offer any ambitious climate policy measures. The authorities’ lack of determination and the interests of lobbying groups from the oil and gas sector may prove to be the most serious barrier to changes in this area in the coming years.

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More EU, less Russia. Transforming gas transmission rules in Central and South-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Agata Loskot-Strachota / Language(s): English

In recent months, the rules for gas transmission through the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe have been changing at an ever faster rate. There has been much talk about opening new routes for exporting Russian gas to the European Union along routes which would bypass this region, which has led to a decline in its transit importance. The ongoing expansion of the network of interconnectors and alternative connections is changing the routes of gas transmission on the Central European market. No less important, although still somewhat less noticeable, are the changing rules for the transport of gas from Russia to the EU. With the expiration of a succession of long-term transit contracts (Ukraine’s at the end of 2019, Poland’s in May 2020, and also those of Slovakia and Bulgaria over the next few years), it will be possible for all of the region’s gas transmission to operate on the basis of EU regulations, namely the Third Energy Package, including its network codes. As a result, there is an increase in transparency and competition, and access to the infrastructure is becoming more attractive, which encourages European companies to use it. At the same time, however, gas transmission from Russia is becoming more unpredictable. This is illustrated by the changes this year in the flow of gas through the Yamal gas pipeline, Ukraine’s main lines and the Trans-Balkan route. The future of gas transmission in the region will also depend on external factors: the processes taking place in Ukraine, the actual physical levels of Russian gas transit, and the situation in the European gas market.

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The Development of Offshore Wind Energy in the Baltic Sea

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Along with the development of renewable energy sources (RES), the interest in using the wind energy potential in the Baltic Sea is growing. Regional cooperation in this field will be conducive to the implementation of EU climate policy and, through the development of electricity connections, will contribute to the development of a more competitive electricity market in the Baltic Sea region. This creates opportunities for Poland, whose investments in offshore wind energy will not only help reduce emissions but also enable the dynamic development of innovation in the renewable energy industry. At the same time, the development of offshore wind farms requires cooperation, for example, between Poland and the countries of the region.

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The EU’s Plans to Reduce Methane Emissions in the Energy Sector

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Later this year, the European Commission (EC) will present draft legislation aimed at increasing the standards of monitoring, reporting, and leak detection of methane emissions. Although there is a consensus in the EU regarding the need to reduce emissions of this second-most harmful greenhouse gas after CO2, the implementation of the EC’s methane strategy and its expected costs are of concern to energy companies, including Polish ones. The EC will have to consider implementing a system of compensation and incentives to mitigate the effects of the proposed reforms.

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Russia’s Role in the European Gas Crisis

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Gas prices in the European Union have reached the highest levels in 13 years. In view of the tighter supplies, EU Member States have started to implement support mechanisms for the most vulnerable consumers. Gazprom, however, is trying to exacerbate the crisis to again increase Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. The effects of this manipulation will be felt across the entire EU economy and may adversely affect its energy transformation plans. Ukraine, though, will be affected most by this situation.

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The Dispute over Nord Stream 2 after the Navalny Poisoning

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

The assassination attempt on Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has sparked a heated debate within the EU on the rationale behind Nord Stream 2 (NS2) and the political implications of its construction. Despite the growing criticism (e.g., in Germany, a key partner of the project), it is almost certain that the German leaders will maintain their support for the 95%-completed pipeline. Therefore, U.S. sanctions remain the main threat to the project.

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Consequences of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 Gas Pipeline Explosions

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

On 26 September, the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) and Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipelines exploded. The circumstances indicate that sabotage may have taken place. The incident could lead to a further escalation of tensions between Russia and the West. Regardless of who was the perpetrator, NATO and EU countries must strengthen their capacity to protect critical infrastructure.

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Distrust Reigned at COP27

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

The COP27 climate summit, which took place on 6-20 November 2022 in Sharmel-Sheikh, Egypt, led to one important conclusion. The parties to the Conference approved the creation of a loss and damage fund for countries particularly vulnerable to climate change. However, the decision making process and the course of the negotiations make it difficult to talk about the success of the climate summit. The future implementation of the provisions of COP27 is also questionable, as countries that previously promised to provide funds for adaptation and mitigation have not yet fulfilled their obligations.

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The Global Oil Market and the Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had the knock-on effect of a sudden increase in oil prices on the world market and OPEC+ countries have not yet been willing to respond to increase supplies. In an effort to limit Russia’s budget revenues from the oil trade, Canada, the U.S. and, the United Kingdom have embargoed Russian crude. While the EU has not joined them, the effects of the rapid changes in the oil market, European consumers will see sharp increases in the prices of goods and services with the European economy potentially slipping into stagflation.

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The Russian Attack on Ukraine and Risks to Nuclear Infrastructure (As of 10:45 on 4 March 2022)

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion has increased the risks for civilian nuclear infrastructure in Ukraine. Russian troops so far have captured the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant complex and Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Enerhodar. The intense use of artillery, rockets, and bombs may become a direct threat to various nuclear sector centres in Ukraine. However, the probability for contamination is low. Nevertheless, in case of such a scenario, its impact on Ukraine and its neighbours would be serious, and in an extreme case, catastrophic.

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The OPEC Dispute and the Arab-Saudi Rivalry

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

The OPEC+ talks planned for 5 July regarding oil-extraction policy have been cancelled because of the SaudiEmirati dispute. The authorities of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have rejected a proposal to extend production limits until the end of 2022. This is another event in the escalating rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which will increase the volatility of oil prices.

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Identifying the Missing Links in the Energy Transition

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Marianna Skoczek-Wojciechowska / Language(s): English

Achieving the goals of the European Green Deal (EGD) requires increasing renewables deployment. Meanwhile, as the share of unstable renewable energy sources increases, so does the problem of ensuring the flexibility of power grids. The key challenge for the European energy system is therefore to expand electricity grids, both national and interstate, and invest in the development of energy storage to ensure a balance of demand and supply.

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WAR BY OTHER MEANS. Kremlin’s Energy Policy as a Channel of Influence - A comparative assessment and case studies from Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Romania and Hungary

Author(s): Ana Otilia Nuțu,Sorin Ioniță / Language(s): English

The EU has been increasingly caught up in its own internal struggles over the past years - migration, populism, Brexit - and is facing fundamental challenges to its core principles and values from problematic member states such as Poland, Hungary or Romania. Russia stands only to benefit from such internal divisions. As usual, Moscow has its instruments to exert significant political influence in its “near abroad”, but also to expand it in the formerly communist Central Europe and further towards the West. As the prospects to finalize Kremlin’s pet energy projects Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream loom ever closer, this report is meant to ring the alarm bells: excessive reliance on Russian energy is a real threat, not only to energy security of Central and Eastern Europe, but also for the broader, fundamental objective of improving governance across the region, as many of the Eastern Partnership countries can testify. The five case studies we present in this report cover a broad range of problems and very different situations.

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