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HELSINŠKE SVESKE №13: The Past as a challenge to the law

Author(s): Vladimir V. Vodinelić / Language(s): English

Societies in whose present time the authoritarian past is still a socially relevant thing may be placed in two opposing manners in front of this morally, politically and legally compromising past: there is a distinct difference between the policy of coping with the past and the policy of non coping with the past. In German, the only language with a specific expression for the complex phenomenon of the former, for ‘cope with’ the past (Vergangenheitsbewältigung), one can also use the synonym Vergangenheitsaufarbeitung. However, ‘to cope with’ is a bet-ter expression. The expression, as well as ‘to prevail over’ the past and ‘to get control over’ the past – indicates more clearly that at issue is a process by which the past is dealt with: to im- pose over, to get control over the past that imposed over us, and it would impose over us again, if we do not impose over it. The extreme patterns of the reactions to the authoritarian past by which it cannot be prevailed are on one side retaliation and pure vendetta and on the other side the 'as-if-nothing-has-happened' pattern: closing your eyes before the authoritarian past. By neither method, it must be emphasized, can the past be prevailed over. Retaliation is an authoritarian fight with the authoritarian past, but not the prevailing over it. Fire cannot be fought with fire here. The authoritarian fight with the past, even if it was authoritarian, is just a repetition, but with the opposite roles.

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Evaluating the Multilateral Framework of the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Petr Kratochvíl / Language(s): English

While the Eastern Partnership (EaP) only deepens the bilateral relations of the EU with its Eastern neighbors, its main contribution is the new multilateral framework designed exclusively for the ENP´s Eastern dimension. • It is the EU who has been enthusiastic about the multilateral approach. The partner countries are more restrained, citing two factors for their skepticism: (1) the fear that the EaP might gradually become an alternative arrangement to full membership and (2) the worry that multilateralism could decrease the so far prevalent country‐specific differentiation and thus slow down the quickest reformers. • The EaP´s multilateral framework has several major strengths: (1) the relatively simple and flexible “operational structure”, (2) the focus on regulatory reforms, (3) the introduction of the so‐called flagship initiatives, and (4) the increased involvement of civil society. • Among the potential problems, the most important are: (1) the launch of the EaP amidst growing political and economic instability across Eastern Europe, and (2) the financial resources which will not be sufficient in the long term given the ambitious work programme. • Regarding the four thematic platforms, they cover most issues on the agenda. But while some topics discussed are truly multilateral (e.g. energy cooperation), others are predominantly bilateral and their inclusion in the multilateral framework is largely artificial (e.g. judiciary and public administration reforms). • Some of the platforms with a strong agenda (such as energy security) are growing softer, hence limiting their relevance for both member and partner countries. • The flagship initiatives, although generally sound and beneficial, are not of equal standing in terms of their importance (cf. the integrated border management and the support for small enterprises on the one hand, and the underfinanced reponsiveness to disasters on the other). In addition, one important originally proposed initiative – the Southern Corridor – entirely disappeared from the agenda. • Two additional unresolved questions pertain respectively to the EaP´s relation to the other regional initiatives (BSS) and the participation of third countries. • The EaP has been doing well so far. Its long term success will be, however, dependent on four factors: (1) the continuous high‐level political support for the project in both the EU and the partner countries, (2) whether there will be an unwavering focus on regulatory reforms that will prevent the EaP´s multilateral framework from turning into an irrelevant talking club, (3) achievement of some visible successes in areas like energy security, border management or institution building (CIB), (4) the increase in funding available for the EaP after 2013.

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Credință, sănătate și politică în vremea pandemiei de COVID-19: 11-15 aprilie 2020

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted between April 11-15, 2020 on a sample of 1008 people selected from 116 urban and rural localities in all counties of Romania. He measured people’s religious beliefs (in God, Hell, the Last Judgment, icons, reincarnation), self-perception (lucky, happy, hardworking, patriotic), self-assessment of the health of certain organs or problems (heart, brain, bones, teeth, infections), the perception of the involvement of the authorities in the management of the COVID crisis, the trust in the political leaders, the voting intentions.

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Barometru politic național: 27 noiembrie - 5 decembrie 2018

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

Survey conducted between November 27 and December 5, 2018 on a sample of 1087 people. He measured issues such as: union with the Republic of Moldova, special pensions, electronic voting, expectations from the European Union and MEPs, the perception of Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă, confidence in political leaders, voting intentions, evaluation of the last four presidents of Romania.

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Barometrul politic al Municipiului Râmnicu Vâlcea

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted between December 6-9, 2019 on a sample of 802 adults living in the city. He measured how the population perceives the involvement of the mayor’s office in various administrative issues, trust in local political leaders, voting intentions in local elections, the perception of local party organizations.

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Barometrul politic al Municipiului Craiova

Author(s): Bruno Stefan,Călin Roșu / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted between December 6-11, 2019 on a sample of 1102 adults living in the city. He measured how the population perceives the involvement of the mayor’s office in various administrative issues, trust in local political leaders, voting intentions in local elections, the perception of local party organizations.

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Barometrul politic al Municipiului Slatina

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted between December 6-9, 2019 on a sample of 840 adults living in the city. He measured how the population perceives the involvement of the mayor’s office in various administrative issues, trust in local political leaders, voting intentions in local elections, the perception of local party organizations.

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Barometrul politic al Municipiului Brăila. 12 -19 octombrie 2019

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted between October 12-19, 2019 on a sample of 1100 adults living in the city. He measured how the population perceives the involvement of the mayor’s office in various administrative issues, trust in local political leaders, voting intentions in local elections, the perception of local party organizations.

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Barometrul politic al municipiului Alba Iulia

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted between September 22-29, 2019 on a sample of 758 adults living in the city. He measured how the population perceives the involvement of the mayor’s office in various administrative issues, trust in local political leaders, voting intentions in local elections, the perception of local party organizations.

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Barometrul preelectoral al municipiului Țăndărei

Author(s): Bruno Stefan / Language(s): Romanian

The survey was conducted on May 13, 2017 on a sample of 217 adults living in the city. He measured how the population perceives the involvement of the mayor’s office in various administrative issues, trust in local political leaders, voting intentions in local elections, the perception of local party organizations.

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Ruska konjica

Author(s): Viktor Ivančić / Language(s): Croatian

Je li Vlada Republike Hrvatske jedina od europskih administracija koja, unatoč pridruživanju međunarodnim sankcijama i službenoj osudi vojne agresije na Ukrajinu, potajno uspostavlja veze i ostvaruje suradnju s krvavim režimom Vladimira Putina? Što ako teatralno ugošćavanje ukrajinskih izbjeglica, leksički prelazak s Harkova na Harkiv ili skidanje Čajkovskog s programa Zagrebačke filharmonije predstavljaju tek paravan kojim se zakriva mračna tajna vladajuće hrvatske politike?

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EAP Think Bridge - № 2020-16 - Eastern Partnership vs. Coronavirus: Test for Democracy

Author(s): Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Natalia Stercul,Lasha Tughushi,Vadim Mojeiko,Richard Giragosian,Zohrab Ismayil / Language(s): English

After a short break, the EaP Think Bridge, the network uniting Eastern Partnership think tanks resumes its work. Each month, experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine prepare reviews of the most important developments in the domestic and foreign policy, as well as the economy of the region. In addition, we will devote each issue to the analysis of significant events and processes. Of course, the topic of this issue is the response of the Eastern Partnership states to the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Coronavirus has become a serious test not only for the healthcare systems of the countries of the region, but also for societies and economy. Epidemic also caused an irresistible temptation for politicians to use restrictive measures for their own benefit and the crackdown against the opposition. We analyzed the responses of the authorities and civil society. Which tactitcs are the most effective? The project benefits from support through the EaP Civil Society Forum Re-granting Scheme (FSTP) and is funded by the European Union as part of its support to civil society in the region. Within its Re-granting Scheme, the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum (EaP CSF) supports projects of its members that contribute to achieving the mission and objectives of the Forum. //// CONTENT: Analytica: Eastern Partnership vs. Coronavirus: test for democracy // Azerbaijan: Snap Elections and New Opposition Accusations // Armenia: Constitutional Court as the key battleground // Belarus: Perfect storm in Belarusian economy // Georgia: Clouds Gather over Georgian Dream // Moldova: Point of Return or Going Round in Circles // Ukraine: In the Shadow of Disasters and Dark Forecasts // Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum News: EaP CSF Re-granting Cycle 2020

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EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-13 - President Zelenskyy: 100 days on the Way to FullPower?

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseniy Sivitsky,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Sterkul,Sergiy Gerasymchuk / Language(s): English

A complete reboot of power in Ukraine and Moldova is not only a chance for changes, the request for which has grown dramatically in the societies of both countries. It is also a test for democracy. It is too early to say whether the new leaders have passed this test, but the summer has already shown some important trends. For the first time during its independence, all the power in Ukraine is concentrated in the hands of one political force. Whether President Zelenskyy and his party will withstand the temptations of monopoly rule and justify the high as ever confidence of the people, Sergey Gerasimchuk analyzed. The controversial coalition of pro-Russian socialists and the pro-European bloc ACUM seemed to be the only chance for Moldova to overthrow the regime of oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. How long this unexpected alliance will last and whether the allies will cope with other tasks facing the country, Natalia Stercul searched for answers. Rapid, albeit difficult, changes are on in Armenia, where the prime minister set ambitious development goals for 2050 already. Meanwhile, Belarus decided on the dates of the parliamentary and presidential elections, although neither the change of power, nor the reform of the system are in question. The summer was hot in Georgia: mass protests with victims took place in Tbilisi, and relations with Russia were aggravated once again. Azerbaijan faced yet another harassment of a journalist - new charges were brought against the former director of Radio Liber ty in Baku, Khadija Ismailova. These and other summer developments analyzed in our country reviews by the experts from the Eastern Partnership. //// CONTENT: Armenia’s difficult reforms // Azerbaijan: Human rights never a priority // Belarus: Rhetoric changes, the system doesn’t // Georgia: Freedom with barbed wire // What political changes bring for Moldova // Ukraine’s hot political summer // Analytica: President Zelenskyy: 100 days on the way to full power? // New government in Moldova: Test by compromise

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EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-12 - Sad Anniversary of the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Sevinç Aliyeva,Lasha Tughushi,Natalia Sterkul,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Hennadiy Maksak,Richard Giragosian,Yuri Tsarik / Language(s): English

May was the month of conclusions and careful forecasts for the Eastern Partnership. The decade of the policy was celebrated in the EU in a full sway and with fanfare, but without serious decisions on a political agenda, without a summit, without a general declaration and without a clear vision for new horizons. What this means for the region and what kind of misty contours are outlined for the cooperation in European institutions and partner countries, Hennady Maksak analyzed. Meanwhile, the Eastern Partnership is far from being calm. In Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan again called on supporters to take the streets, forgetting, probably, that he is now the leader of the state, not the opposition and the methods for the belated justice reform will have to be divergent from revolutionary. The old tensions over the border escalated in Georgia and Azerbaijan. After a short conflict, the common demarcation commission resumed its work in the disputed area. Belarus again felt the political and economic pressure of Russia in May, but it seems that Minsk took into account past mistakes and changed tactics when discussing integration issues. The political crisis in Moldova reached its apogee: the newly elected parliament has not yet been able to agree on the coalition. Democrats and socialists took the last chance to come to an agreement, otherwise extraordinary elections cannot be avoided. Ukraine, meanwhile, is preparing for dramatic changes. The newly elected president dissolved parliament and called on the Cabinet of Ministers to resign. As events develop in the Eastern Partnership, we are following in our analysts’ reviews from each of the countries of the region. //// CONTENT: Armenia: Crisis within the government // Richard Giragosian, Regional Studies Center // Azerbaijan: Tensions with Georgia over the borderline // Belarus: The planned elections and an unplanned crisis // Georgia: Political perspective through a prism of elections in one district // Moldova: A new round of political games // Ukraine before “a perfect storm” // Analytica: The sad anniversary of Eastern Partnership // Armenia’s revolution continues

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EAP Think Bridge - № 2019-10 - Visa-Free Whip. Prospects of Preserving a visa-free Regime for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Lasha Tughushi,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Kateryna Kulchytksa,Yuri Tsarik / Language(s): English

In the Ukrainian presidential race the possible abolition of the visa-free regime with the EU in case of the victory of a “wrong” candidate became a hot topic. The dividing line was no longer on the voters’ preferences of Russia or the West, as none of the openly pro-Russian candidates had any real chances of winning. However, visa-free issue is still used in the campaigns after the first round, despite the fact that both leaders declare a course towards the West. Under what conditions can a visa free regime be, in fact, suspended not only for Ukraine, but also for the other Eastern Partnership countries? And who really walks on the edge - Kyiv, Tbilisi or Chisinau? Ekaterina Kulchitskaya analyzes. In the meantime, Belarus is only preparing for elections. The president is carrying out personnel changes and strengthening the rears in the regions. Another important step in this process was the adoption of the Information Security Concept. Neither the rights of citizens nor union obligations to Russia, but the supremacy of the state in the information space is placed first in the document. What is so unusual about this Concept and why it is needed at all, Yuri Tsarik tells. Moldova already shares out main posts after the elections. Although only three parties passed to the new parliament, they haven’t been able to reach an agreement yet. The same is the situation with the judicial reform in Georgian parliament. Since the negotiations were at an impasse, the opposition appealed to the Venice Commission for help. And the Armenian not numerous but vocal opposition strives to reduce the powers of the prime minister with no luck so far. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan saw an unprecedented amnesty, when 51 political prisoners were released. Is this a sign of the regime liberalization or the result of pressure? //// CONTENT: Mistakes & missteps: Armenian government begins to falter // Azerbaijan: Political prisoners released in mass pardon // Belarus: In the grip of the negative and seeking the positive // Georgia: the Venice Commission is to get involved in the judicial reform // Moldova: Where the three fight, the fourth wins // Ukraine elects, EU values progress, Russia persecutes crimean tatars // Analytica: The concept of Belarus information security and its long-term consequences // Visa-free whip. Prospects of preserving a visa-free regime for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

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EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-06 - Kerch Strait incident and its implications for regional security

Author(s): Ashot Azazian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Sorin Sclearuc,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Hanna Shelest,Yauheni Preiherman / Language(s): English

The incident in the Kerch Strait is a game changer in the Kremlin’s “hybrid” war. For the first time Russia openly attacked Ukraine, not hiding behind “polite green men” or “local protesters”. And this escalation is dangerous not only for Ukraine. Whether the security of the Eastern Partnership countries is threatened, which legal and political implications have been already caused by the aggression and which are still getting underway, Hanna Shelest analyzed. Western politicians and world leading experts are already concerned about the security in the region. Thus, it is no coincidence that, first time ever, the Munich Security Conference, the most authoritative international forum, held a meeting of the Core Group in Eastern Europe. Whatthey discussed and, most importantly, what they failed to agree upon in Minsk, Yauheni Preiherman shared. And in the meantime Belarus itself arranged military cooperation and the supply of weapons to Azerbaijan. Concurrently, the rest of the region is still absorbed in the electoral process and has pushed security issues to the background. In Armenia, revolution leader Nikol Pashinyan is preparing to get a majority in parliament and return to the prime minister’s seat. At the same time, because of the scandal and the criminal case against representatives of the former government, the country may lose its Secretary General post in the CSTO. Georgia elected the first female president. After her odious statements regarding the 2008 Russian-Georgian war, the question remains as to what position the president-elect Salome Zurabishvili will take towards the Russian Federation. And Moldova’s European partners moved from warnings to actions and froze economic assistance to the country until the parliamentary elections. What else happened in the Eastern Partnership in November, find out in the latest issue of the Digest. //// CONTENT: Armenia lost its CSTO Secretary General post? // Azerbaijan: Military cooperation with Belarus // Belarus “tightens the screws” before the election // Georgia: New president with new problems // Moldova: Facing European ultimatums // Ukraine: Heading into elections in the context of war // Analytica: Kerch Strait incident and its implications for regional security // Munich in Minsk: Stating the big regional problem

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EAP Think Bridge - № 2018-05 - Georgia: The last “people’s” president

Author(s): Richard Giragosian,Sevinç Aliyeva,Arseni Sivitski,Lasha Tughushi,Sorin Sclearuc,Sergiy Gerasymchuk,Hennadiy Maksak / Language(s): English

The Eastern Partnership region is captured by electoral issues. Election campaigns completely eclipsed everything else on domestic and foreign policy agenda of the partner-states. In the very spotlight is the last direct election of the President of Georgia. Although this post effectively performs a merely ceremonial function in the parliamentary republic, serious battles flared up, not a single political force is ready to give up. For the first time in Georgia’s history a presidential vote has gone to a second round. Why it is important not only for Georgia, but also for the whole region, Lasha Tugushi elaborated. Neighboring Armenia activated complicated constitutional steps to dissolve the parliament and move toward a snap parliamentary election. In Belarus the entire country is being used to polish up Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s image and prepare him for the upcoming election. Brutal policies and primitive means used to enforce them are the evidence of close parliamentary election in Moldova. While in Ukraine, topics and slogans popular among voters prevail in the domestic narratives, language, faith and the fight against corruption being most noticeable. Meanwhile in Luxembourg, at a meeting of Foreign Ministers of the EU and the Eastern Partnership member-states the progress in achieving the 20 EaP Deliverables for 2020 was discussed. Hennadiy Maksak representing the EaP Civil Society Forum at the ministerial shares his conclusions and recommendations for the near future of the region. //// CONTENT: Armenia moves to special pre-term elections // Azerbaijan invests big in Turkey // Belarus: All about Lukashenka’s image // Georgia: Lugar Labs in Putin’s sights // Moldova: Between democracy and authoritarianism // Ukraine: The closer to elections, the farther from Moscow // Analytica: Georgia: The last “people’s” president // Ukraine: 20 EaP Deliverables progress report

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Izvini Bajaga iliti nadrialiti

Author(s): Nadežda Milenković / Language(s): Serbian

Vlast koja najbolje zna koliko verujemo medijima (zato ih i zaptiva da iz njih ne curne ništa nepoželjno) odlučila je da se pravi mrtva. Ko veli, pored toliko mrtvih, nju niko neće ni primetiti.

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Samo sklopi okice

Author(s): Dejan Ilić / Language(s): Serbian

Pre otprilike mesec dana, ministar prosvete najavio je da će nova školska godina krenuti na „regularan“ način kao pre epidemije. To će biti tako, bio je onda uveren ministar, zato što je vakcinacija protiv korona virusa u našoj zemlji dala „pozitivne rezultate“. Dakle, tako je govorio ministar pre četiri-pet nedelja. A juče? Šta je juče, četiri-pet nedelja kasnije imao da kaže ministar o novoj školskoj godini i vakcinaciji?

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Sedam tajni 2020. godine

Author(s): Yanis Varoufakis / Language(s): Serbian

Kula od karata. Gomila laži na koje smo nepromišljeno pristali. Tako u periodima duboke krize izgledaju stvari za koje smo nekada verovali da su sigurne i izvesne. Šok događaja primorava nas da shvatimo koliko su naše osnovne prihvaćene pretpostavke nesigurne. Zato je ova godina izgledala kao nagla oseka koja nas je naterala da se suočimo sa istinama otkrivenim povlačenjem mora.

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