INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN THE CAC40 AND THE DAX INDICES IN INTRADAY DATA

Author(s): Barbara Będowska-Sójka / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

This paper seeks to find out if shocks observed on the French and German markets are observed at the same moment or are transmitted among the markets within the very short time period. The bivariate GARCH model is estimated with variables standing for shocks in order to examine if there exists interdependence between the markets. The sample consists of 5-minute returns of the CAC40 and the DAX. Using high-frequency data and within the framework of the dynamic conditional correlation models, we show that volatility increases at the same time in the series. Within the nearest 5-minute interval, shocks observed in the DAX returns increase volatility of CAC40. Our results indicate co-movement in this pair of indices which suggests common exogenous sources of volatility shocks.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE COMPETENCES OF GYMNASIUM STUDENTS IN LOWER SILESIA DISTRICTS

Author(s): Alicja Grześkowiak,Anna Izabella Król,Anna Błaczkowska,Agnieszka Stanimir / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

The paper presents the analysis of students’ scores in compulsory examination administered in the last grade of the gymnasium. The conducted multivariate analyses allowed to determine spatial diversity and dynamics of the competences of students in the lower secondary level of education in Lower Silesia districts between 2002 and 2010. The following alarming conclusions are the result of this research: in most districts the gymnasium students are prepared for further stages of education and for applying the knowledge and skills in life only to a medium or weak degree; the number of districts in which the gymnasium students obtained good and very good results decreased in 2010; number of points scored in the competence areas where creativity and constructive thinking was significantly decreased.

FORECASTING OF THE INCOME TAX IN THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC

Author(s): Martin Pavlík / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

The author focuses on forecasting income tax in cases where the time series is short. He uses the methodology which was described in his previous papers and applied on the monthly basis. He applies the methodology on an annual quarterly basis.

HUMAN VALUES. CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS OF ATTITUDES OF YOUNG AND OLDER PEOPLE

Author(s): Agnieszka Stanimir / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

The main purpose of this article is to show the possibilities of the application of correspondence analysis in indicating differences between young and older people in attitudes to major life values. The respondents represent many countries and they differ where cultural, social, demographical and political systems are concerned. Different techniques of correspondence analysis were used to identify interactions between variables. Simple correspondence analysis indicated geographical differences in perception of the most important features within each age group. Introduction of the doubled ratings into the study allowed to identify not only the best, but also the lowest rated features. At the same time the use of concatenated contingency tables enabled identification of the most important features for both the younger and older inhabitants of selected countries.

DETERMINING CONSENSUS IN DISTRIBUTED COMPUTER DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

Author(s): Marcin Hernes,Jadwiga Sobieska-Karpińska / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

The problem of using consensus methods in solving knowledge conflict in distributed decision support system is presented in this article. The manner of decision representation behind assistance of multiattrib and multivalue structure, profile of decisions and the problem of knowledge conflicts are characterized. Next, the heuristics algorithm determining consensus for profile consisting of a set of decision structures was elaborated.

EMPIRICAL VERIFICATION OF THE MODEL OF THE KNOWLEDGE ORIENTATION OF A COMPANY

Author(s): Małgorzata Rószkiewicz,Dorota Węziak-Białowolska / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

The paper aims at empirical verification of the conceptual model of the knowledge orientation of a company. The model illustrates the relations among managers’ knowledge orientation, the company’s knowledge orientation and the economic performance of a company. The model is empirically verified using the structural equation modelling. The results obtained prove that the model needs modifications. Nevertheless, in our research it is proved that the managers’ knowledge orientation influences significantly and positively the knowledge orientation of a company and the latter is one of the determinants of the economic performance of a company.

AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS USED FOR FORECASTING THE PRICES OF ANIMALS FOR SLAUGHTER IN POLAND

Author(s): Agnieszka Tłuczak / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

The forecast of agricultural prices is one of the most important factors in making decision on production farms. The appropriate forecast allows for limiting the risk connected with one’s economic activity. In this study autoregressive models have been used, which helped to determine the price forecast for agricultural products in the purchasing centres in the three quarters of 2010. To determine the quality of forecast the average ex-post errors of the past forecasts have been used. The achieved results show that autoregressive models are an effective tool in forecasting the agricultural prices in Poland.

ANALYSIS OF JOB CHANGES IN POLAND USING THE BAYESIAN METHOD

Author(s): Wioletta Grzenda / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

The primary objective of the work is to identify demographic and socio-economic factors influencing occupational mobility in Poland in the years 1950–1988. The career mobility has been modelled using a Bayesian Poisson regression model. Analysis of employment periods has been performed for three age groups. Moreover, in spite of the small size of the third age group, the Bayesian approach enabled result comparison for all age groups. In modelling the number of employment periods, the following determinants have been considered: the place of residence, sex, education level, the intention to continue education within two years, the intention to change place of residence within two years, having a family, the number of children, socio-occupational group and the age of entering workforce.

USING OPTIMIZATION MODELS TO DETERMINE THE INVENTORY LEVEL IN THE PRODUCTION PROCESS

Author(s): Agnieszka Tubis,Natalia Szozda / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

Growing requirements from customers concerning not only product quality but also time handling combined with pressure, cause managers to increasingly seek solutions that will allow them to optimize drawn up production plans. Logistic support to the production process ceases therefore to be only connected with coordinating various activities and to guarantee proper movement, but is extended by the elements optimizing the production level of inventories in the course of production. This article presents an example of a company that has faced such a challenge. A comparative study has been carried out of the various types of planning, which has led to attempting to use an optimization model to minimize the inventory and the production costs for one of the departments that has been studied.

SUM OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE RESPONSES AS A SUPPLEMENT OF BALANCE IN QUALITATIVE SURVEY DATA

Author(s): Grzegorz Kowalewski / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

In most business tendency surveys, respondents usually have three options of choice, such as up, same and down. The balance is then calculated by subtracting the up percentage from the down percentage. When analysing balances only, the full information about the answers structure is rejected. To avoid this, it is appropriate to supplement the balances with additional rate: the percentage sum of positive and negative answers. In the paper the use of this indicator will be talked over and exemplified by GUS (Central Statistical Office) questionnaire data.

DIFFERENTIATION OF EXPENDITURES ON ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION INVESTMENTS IN RURAL AREAS OF LOWER SILESIA

Author(s): Agnieszka Skowronek-Grądziel / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

The main aim of the study was to identify the trends concerning expenditures on environmental protection in rural areas of Lower Silesia in the years 2000–2008. The general level, rate of growth, participation in GDP as well as the structure of finances annually invested in the protection of rural environment were analysed. A ranking of voivodships with regard to the fulfilment of environmental protection and water management investments in rural areas calculated per one inhabitant was prepared. Structures of expenditures in various voivodships were compared. An attempt was made to identify the direction and scope of changes in the structure of expenditures in the analysed period. The results were used to define the position of Lower Silesia among all regions of Poland.

RISK PREMIUM ON THE SHORT RATE MARKET – COMPARISON OF THE POLISH AND EUROPEAN MARKETS BEHAVIOUR DURING THE CRISIS

Author(s): Piotr Płuciennik,Agata Kliber / Language(s): English Issue: 31/2011

In the paper we investigate the risk premium on the Polish and European interbank markets based upon the LIBOR and OIS data. We compare the dynamics of the risk premia during the crisis period. The results of our analysis show that the risk premia on both markets reacted to the monetary policy movements. However, the results obtained for Poland clearly suggest the immaturity of the OIS market.

Crossed out Windows – A Series of Paintings by Zsigmond Károlyi

Author(s): András Lányi / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2013

Quickly and without Mercy

Author(s): Tibor Pethő / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2013

In late 1956 and early 1957, in the wake of the suppressed Revolution a series of retaliatory mass shootings took place throughout Hungary, organised by the Soviet backed new Kádár government.

The Europeans Before and After the Cold War

Author(s): Norman Stone / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2013

Sometimes I am asked: why history? In so many places, history is a sort of primary-school nationalist propaganda, and serious people do something else. One of the best lines in Robert Skidelsky’s life of John Maynard Keynes is a remark made to Lytton Strachey in Florence, when he was writing one of those doctoral theses that make sense to historians and nobody else. Keynes said, he supposed that it needed to be done, but not by him. Faced with this problem in south-western Germany Max Weber said that a new subject altogether needed to be invented, and he came up with Politikwissenschaft, political science. In due course, history had its revenge: political science utterly failed to do what any science should do, predict. In this case, predicting the fall of Communism. Right to the end, the political scientists, or Sovietologists, simply did not see what was happening under their noses. The splendid Susan Sontag remarked, beating her chest, that if you had wanted to know what Communism was about, your best guide was The Reader’s Digest, a periodical that goes back to the days of Joe McCarthy.

The Endangered Danube – BALÁZS MEDGYESY in interview with NICK THORPE

Author(s): Nick Thorpe,Balázs Medgyesy / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2013

Hungary’s “Opening to the East” and Turkey

Author(s): Boris Kálnoky / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2013

There is huge potential in the East, but fantasy remains more exciting than reality. There will not be any buying of Hungarian bonds by Turkey, Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan. Growth in trade volumes stagnated this year. Most of Hungary’s exports to the East come from multinationals based in Hungary. In order to facilitate market access for small and medium companies, Hungarian diplomacy invests considerable effort. Some projects with Turkey promise rich rewards. The government also wants to attract more Turkish investment to Hungary. One vision is to attract Turkish tourists to southern Hungary. Five star hotels, airport renovations and private hospitals for wealthy Muslim patients are being discussed. But the plan hinges on finding the lost grave (türbe) of Suleiman the Magnificent near Szigetvár.

The Biography of a Woman

Author(s): Ferenc Juhász / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2013

Road to Lincoln – From My Grandfather’s Hayloft

Author(s): Árpád Kadarkay / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2013

Russia’s Energy Weapon

Author(s): Ágnes Gereben / Language(s): English Issue: 01/2013

In 2011 and 2012 Vladimir Putin said on more than one occasion that Russia had managed to avoid the world economic and financial crisis thanks to the policies of the Kremlin. In several respects, this was true – but not so much in the energy sector, so vital to Russian interests and the country’s budget. From the second half of 2011, Gazprom, in previous years so dominant in the “blue fuel” sector from extraction to sales to supply, began having to fight open battles rather than the behind-the-scenes ones as before.