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Kosovo 2023: Is ‘Serbian resistance’ feasible in Kosovo?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Numerous multilateral meetings have convened to discuss the Kosovo situation. Recently, the European Political Community Summit took place in Granada. Kosovo was in focus, albeit only declaratively, as no substantive steps were taken to overcome the existing crisis and reduce tensions. The forthcoming Berlin Process Summit in Tirana is unlikely to yield a solution for Kosovo, as Germany is primarily part of the problem in Kosovo, rather than a part of the solution.

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From the Thessaloniki Declaration to the introduction of ETIAS

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The 20th anniversary of the signing of the Thessaloniki Declaration[2] was recently celebrated in Thessaloniki, followed by the Bled Strategic Forum (BSF), and the summit of the Brdo-Brioni process in Skopje, while the summit of the Berlin process will be held in October in Tirana. At the Bled Strategic Forum, Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, announced EU enlargement by 2030. However, this statement was promptly refuted by the spokesperson for Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, who emphasized that establishing a specific timeline for EU enlargement is still premature. In her recent annual State of the Union address before the European Parliament, von der Leyen once again broached the topic of enlargement, albeit in a more abstract rather than concrete context.

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Montenegro 2023: Is there an effort to establish an 'interim government' to enable the return of the DPS to power?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

On 30 August, Montenegro marked the three-year anniversary of the democratic elections that ousted Milo Djukanović's regime and the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). This event signified great democratic leap, as it brought an end to the longest-standing authoritarian regime in Europe after 30 years. After the parliamentary elections on 30 August, the 42nd government, known as the apostolic government due to the significant involvement of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) in its formation, was established. This government remained in office until the end of April 2022 when the 43rd government, led by Prime Minister Dritan Abazović (URA) and termed a minority government, came into existence, representing a rather unique event.

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2023 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Wagnerization of BiH Brčko District

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Milorad Dodik (SNSD) has launched a major offensive against Serbia and its leadership with the intent to try to force the Serbian leadership to leave aside all the numerous problems and challenges it is facing and completely focus on the defense of his “personality and works.” The Republika Srpska National Assembly (NSRS) adopted the Law on Modifications and Amendments to the Republika Srpska Criminal Code, which reintroduced after a period of 20 years criminalization of defamation and included defamation in the criminal legislation. The Law was poorly and unprofessionally developed. According to the adopted law the persecution is done by the office of the prosecutor you, as the other side is not an individual but the state (office of the prosecutor). Small media outlets, which are at the verge of survival, will disappear. Self-censorship by the media will occur. Provisions of the criminal legislation need to be unequivocal, as otherwise there will be confusing unpredictability in public space. The law has standards. International standards are against criminalization of defamation. BiH has no strong democratic institutions. Deterioration of defamation is a consequence of a broader trend of increase in populism in the region.

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2023 Kosovo: Debacle of International Community in Kosovo

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Crime in Kosovo has its roots in the period of Kosovo’s government-in-exile. The epicenter of crime includes the former commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK-OVK) and (para)intelligence services (ShIK), who acted in cooperation with political structures. Although the ShIK was officially dissolved in 2008 for the purposes of establishment of the official Kosovo Intelligence Agency, it still operates unofficially. There are strong connections between the current official and unofficial opposition political leaders and the enormous amounts of money, which has been collected through various funds. The Vendlindja thrret (Homeland Calling) fund was used to collect money in Europe and is controlled by the leaders of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). The Kosovo People’s Movement Levizja Popullore e Kosoves was established in 1997-98 and it collected money from the diaspora. In 1999 the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) was established from it. In 1991, the 3% Fund was created under the control of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). Dubious activities are affiliated with the closest family members of former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi (PDK). In fact, a member of his family had a special role in the Kosovo Insurance Bureau (BKS) and controlled the overall financial system through the Central Bank of Kosovo (BQK). Kurti’s government abolished the popularly called “Thaci’s tax.”

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2023 Montenegro: Spajić's dual citizenship a serious problem for NATO?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Early parliamentary elections in Montenegro were held on 11 June 2023. However, the official election results were publicized only on 14 July 2023. The parties that won the largest number of votes from the voters for the Parliament of Montenegro, which has 81 representatives, include the Europe Now Movement /Pokret Evropa sad/ which won 25.53% of votes (24 representatives), the Together Coalition /Zajedno/ (DPS, SD, LP, DUA) 23.22% (21 representatives), the For the Future of Montenegro coalition /Za budućnost Crne Gore/ (NSD, DNP, RP) 14.74% (13 representatives), the Bravery Counts coalition /Hrabro se broji/ (Democrats and URA) 12.48% (11 representatives), Bosniak Party 7.08% (6 representatives), Albanian Forum 1.91% (2 representatives), the For You coalition /Za tebe/ (SNP and Demos) 3.13% (2 representatives), the Croat minority list On the Right Side of the World /Na pravoj strani svijeta –HGI/ 0.74% (1 representative) and the Albanian minority Albanian Alliance coalition /Albanska alijansa/ 1.49% (1 representative).

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2023 Ukraine Crisis: Has the “Great Game” between the West and China already begun?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Historians and geopolitical experts usually seek major shifts to understand and explain the developments in the world, believing they will find answers in any major militarypolitical development. The shifts in the last century included a number of major events, each of which was considered a “milestone” towards a new phase in international relations. Maybe the most prominent of all the events were the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 on the United States of America, which constituted the first foreign attack on US soil since the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (US port on Hawaii’s island of Oahu). The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, with major human losses, followed. However, they did not inform the geopolitical situation in the world in the 21st century, which remained the same as we knew it since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early nineties of the 20th century- dominance of the West in the decision making processes at the global level, despite the Russian and Chinese opposition to certain issues. Namely, it was only limited opposition, as seen in the case of the war in Iraq.

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Hindered: a frozen conflict in Ukraine

Author(s): Masahiro Matsumura / Language(s): English

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam on June 6 has evoked strong moral loathing against Russia, the alleged perpetrator according to major Western international media, and considerably diminished momentum toward a frozen conflict in Ukraine. The incident has spoiled the common understanding in the making across major Western countries that, given the prospect for further conflict protraction, a cessation of hostilities there is prerequisite to an eventual political settlement or at least a formal cease-fire.

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2023 Local Elections in Albania: Choice between Drug Cartels and/or Parliamentary Republic?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In the Republic of Albania the next local elections are scheduled to take place on 14 May 2023. The last local elections, which were held on 30 June 2019, were boycotted by the opposition, while the turnout at the elections was only 21.6%. As a result, all positions in local self-governance authorities were occupied by the candidates of the Socialist Party (PS) headed by Edi Rama. The last local elections in Albania were conducted in an atmosphere of tensions, after the Albanian opposition had withdrawn from the work of the Parliament and organized political activities on the streets of Tirana at which it requested the resignation of Prime Minister Rama, establishment of an interim government and holding of general elections.

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The Russia-Ukraine warfare as the final stage of U.S.-Russia proxy war in Donbas (2014-2022)

Author(s): Masahiro Matsumura / Language(s): English

After thirteen months since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine warfare, neither country will likely be able to achieve absolute victory[2], while confronting the daunting possibility of war protraction. Thus, now is high time to identify its root cause in search for an end to the warfare. True, Russian’s aggression against Ukraine is evident, but it is a result, rather than a cause, of the circumstances, as in the common saying “there is no smoke without fire”. Given that Ukraine neither made an armed attack nor deliberated an imminent attack against Russia, its armed invasion seems to constitute a quintessential case of one nation-state’s unprovoked aggression against another according to basic international law. Yet, Russian President Vladimir Putin has justified the invasion by invoking “the responsibility to protect”, another international law principle. It is often applied to an ethnic conflict in an independent state that involves mass atrocity crimes, such as genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, allowing another state (or states) to militarily intervene for stopping these acts in the name of international community. Putin has claimed that the invasion forces are carrying a special military operation aimed to demilitarize and de-Nazifying Ukraine and to stop Ukraine’s armed forces from committing mass atrocities in the Donbas[3]. Now that Russia has recognized the independence of two former Donbas oblasts[4] and concluded security treaties with them, the legal status of the armed conflict has arguably been changed from an internal to an inter-state one. After that, Putin may also justify an intervention by invoking the right of collective self-defense under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter.

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Putin’s War, ramifications for China

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Thirteen months into the war in Ukraine and it is effectively stalemate, although there remains bitter confrontation around the town of Bakhmut as well as an almost daily arrival of missiles or armed drones, although most of these are shot down before they cause harm. Four people were killed in the last foray in the Kyiv surrounds. Putin cannot win the war in this way, which he knows. He has just had a visit from President Xi Jinping of China to show that he still enjoys Xi’s support, except in the form of direct military assistance, which he needs. China is ostensibly trying to broker a peace deal. They are embarrassed by this war; it is affecting China’s trade, not just with Ukraine, but other countries as well, particularly if these nations have sympathy for Ukraine. However, a peace deal usually would require a measure of compromise on behalf of the warring parties. And Ukraine has, with some justification, says that Russia has to withdraw entirely from any Ukrainian lands they have taken. Russia would therefore have no land-take as a result for all the trouble and damage, never mind acts of genocide that some of their troops have perpetrated.

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2023 Kosovo 2023: Serb community could permanently cut ties with authorities in Pristina?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In Kosovo, extraordinary local elections will be held on 23 April 2023 in four predominantly Serb municipalities in the north of Kosovo (Severna Mitrovica, Leposavić, Zubin Potok and Zvečan) to elect the municipal mayors as well as councilors for the municipal councils in Leposavić and Zvečan. The extraordinary local elections will be held after the mayors and municipal councilors from the Srpska lista /Serb List/ party had left the Kosovo institutions in four municipalities in the north of Kosovo as a protest against the decision of the Kosovo Government on mandatory reregistration of vehicles from former Serbian (KM) to RKS registration plates. The elections were to be held on 18 December 2022, but due to unfavorable security situation have been postponed for 23 April 2023. The official election campaign will take place from 4 April to 21 April 2023.

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2023 Türkiye: Most Important Elections on the 100th Anniversary of Establishment of the Republic of Türkiye - Country at a Turning Point

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Türkiye is preparing to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May 2023, after Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of the Republic of Türkiye, had announced that the date of the elections will be moved from the previously scheduled 18 June to 14 May 2023. These elections in Türkiye have been described as “the most important in the history of the country”[2]since the inception of the Republic. In addition to a plethora of parties and presidential candidates, there is also a consensus both within and outside Turkey that this time the elections will be a turning point for the future of the country. The importance of these twenty eighth presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye is derived from the fact that they are taking place 100 years after the establishment of the modern Republic of Türkiye by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and the Republic is entering the second century of its existence under very complex global circumstances.

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Ukrainian Crisis – View from Tunisia

Author(s): Ali Goutali / Language(s): English

In view of the dangerous escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the alarming turn for the worse it took as well as the hysterical war mongering campaign that accompanies it, I deemed it useful to bring some clarifications and personal views concerning this conflict – in addition to the frequent writings on the topic on the pages of the IFIMES International Institute. I served for several years as Ambassador of Tunisia to both Russia and Ukraine. Hence, I hold in high esteem the peoples of either of the two. That is why, my point of view is meant to be objective and I am inclined to call earnestly for a rapid diplomatic settlement of this conflict with far-reaching and immeasurable consequences, if it is not quickly contained.

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2023 to mark the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye: Will Türkiye Organize Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Turkish officials, headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, assure the public that there will be no early elections and that the elections will be organized as planned in June 2023. Furthermore, the Turkish Minister of Justice Bekir Bozdağ stated on 19 August 2022 that the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held as envisaged by the Turkish Constitution, that is on 18 June 2023. In Türkiye, there are suspicions that Erdoğan could surprise the opposition and call early general and presidential elections.

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Putin’s War – cont’d

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Winter in Ukraine and Russia has brought cold and snow as usual, and the protagonists in this war, started by the Russian president 300 days ago, has altered accordingly. For the past month or so, the Russian belligerents have changed tactics, apart from fierce fighting at the frontline city of Bakhmut, acknowledging they were not making any ground, in fact being pushed back, albeit slowly. Both sides were and still are putting up defences, and meantime, mostly the Russians, are continuing the war from long range. There is a regrouping, especially around Kherson, before another push early next year. It would seem that Putin’s visit to see President Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus was to discuss his next moves on Ukraine, possibly with Belarus support. His eyes are also on Moldova with its ethnic Russian population to the east of the country. It is interesting to note that Kazakhstan, part of the former southern Asian states related to Moscow, has turned down a request to give assistance to Russia in its war with Ukraine.

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Europe of the West: Imperialism of Imagination, Geopolitics of Peter Pan

Author(s): Anis H. Bajrektarević / Language(s): English

Economic downturn; recession of plans and initiatives; systematically ignored calls for a fiscal and monetary justice for all; €-crisis; Brexit and irredentism in the UK, Spain, Belgium, France, Denmark and Italy; lasting instability in the Euro-Med theatre (debt crisis of the Europe’s south – countries scrutinized and ridiculed under the nickname PIGS, coupled with the failed states all over the MENA); terrorism; historic low with Moscow culminating in the unprecedented opened armed conflict of West with Russia on the territory of yet another Slavic useful idiot, ill-fated Ukraine, all this combined with a confrontational but in fact frightened and disoriented Washington administration; influx of predominantly Muslim refugees from Levant in numbers and configurations unprecedented since the WWII exoduses (with an institutionalized racism in the Western migration policy while giving to fleeing Ukrainians diametrically different treatment); consequential growth of far-right parties who – by peddling reductive messages and comparisons – are exploiting fears of otherness, that are now amplified with already urging health labour and social justice concerns; generational unemployment and sociocultural anxieties, in ricochet of sanctions; long-ago ‘prophesised’ than doctored health, post-C-19 and energy ‘crises’, oil anti-diplomacy, as well as the Sino-US trade wars, while rifting in dilemma to either letting Bolivarism or supporting Monroeism…

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A View over Putin’s War in Ukraine

Author(s): George Vadim Tiugea / Language(s): English

Since the most distant times, wars have represented the main tool of regulating interhuman relations. As stated by English philosopher Thomas Hobbes, man in his initial state was a rather violent animal (homo homini lupus) and, for this reason, the rule of war reigned in relations with his peers, within which the strongest managed to impose his interests on the weakest. Based on the principle of natural selection, this framework was closer to the animal kingdom than to a society in the true sense of the word.

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2022 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Christian Schmidt vs. High Representative (OHR)?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

After the Russian invasion on Ukraine, which begun on 24 February 2022, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and the Western Balkans region as a whole, once again became a focus of international attention. There is almost no relevant report or discussions at which Bosnia and Herzegovina is not identified as a location of possible conflict.After the Russian invasion on Ukraine, which begun on 24 February 2022, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and the Western Balkans region as a whole, once again became a focus of international attention. There is almost no relevant report or discussions at which Bosnia and Herzegovina is not identified as a location of possible conflict. For more than a decade the US administration has left Bosnia and Herzegovina in the care of the European Union (EU), which has more than evidently missed the historic opportunity to make important steps forward towards a prosperous BiH. Not just that such steps have not been made but the EU has created in BiH a situation identical to that in Ukraine in the eve of the Russian invasion. The sequence of moves by EU officials towards BiH indicates a high risk of corruption, just as in the case of the possible imposition of the BiH Election Law.

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2022 Serbia: Strengthening of foreign policy and affirmation of international status

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The Nonalignment Movement (NAM) summit organized from 11 October to 12 October in Belgrade, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of establishment of the Movement was the largest multilateral event in Europe and one of the largest events in the world in 2021. The group of Nonalignment Movement member countries is the most numerous group within the framework of the UN General Assembly in New York. The Movement is important for Serbia because many of its member countries have not recognized Kosovo. Over the past two decades superpowers have frequently tried through different ways to bypass the key role of the UN in the world and pursued the path of unilateralism while ignoring the UN. On the other side, the NAM advocates multilateralism, territorial integrity of the states and inviolability of borders.

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