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The Bucha Massacre - Russian Crimes in the Kyiv Region

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

From the first days of Russia’s latest aggression against Ukraine, it has been using terror against the civilian population as a strategy of pressure on the Ukrainian society and government. The crimes revealed at the beginning of April in towns near Kyiv, including in Bucha, are confirmation of this Russian policy. Once the evidence is gathered, the aim of the international community should be to bring those responsible to justice.

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Iran’s Attitude to Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Iran’s cautious approach towards Russia’s war with Ukraine, and its lack of condemnation, are a result of the “strategic partnership” between Russia and Iran, and of hostility to the United States. Iran will not actively support Russia, despite two decades of this partnership and both countries’ claims that the war is the fault of the U.S. and NATO. Regional concerns in the context of an anticipated reduction in Russia’s military presence in Syria and Armenia, and prospects of the removal of U.S. sanctions (with the possible renewal of nuclear deal conditions) are crucial influences on Iran’s attitude.

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Yemen President’s Resignation: An Opportunity for the Peace Process

Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English

On 7 April, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, the president of Yemen, a state mired in a civil war since 2014, resigned amid a fall in support for him among the anti-Houthi forces, the deteriorating living conditions in territories under his government’s control, and pressure from Gulf states. Hadi’s resignation may lead to increased coherence among the Houthis’ opponents in the short term, but strife between the factions will resume if the peace process does not progress quickly.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after Seven Weeks of Fighting

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Since the beginning of April, Russia has been focusing on operations mainly in the east and, to a lesser extent, the south of Ukraine, while it has withdrawn its forces from the north of the country, including the vicinity of Kyiv. This shows that the priorities of military action have changed and are now focused on the occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, including Mariupol, and maintaining their position in the south of Ukraine. Until it attains these goals and declares its operation a success, Russia will be unlikely to suspend the hostilities.

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Another U.S. Aid Package for Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 21 April, U.S. President Joe Biden announced further actions aimed at helping Ukraine. The U.S. is constantly pressing its allies to take similar steps, such as the transfer of armaments, including heavy weapons, as well as financial, economic, and humanitarian aid. The U.S. seeks to forge allied unity in order to maintain Russia’s international isolation, both through sanctions and by providing Ukraine with military equipment so it can effectively defend itself.

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Emmanuel Macron Re-elected as President of France

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Emmanuel Macron defeated the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election on April 24, 2022, obtaining 58.54% of the vote. While Macron's advantage is higher than expected, it was achieved with a lower turnout, which is evidence of a declining interest in political life in France, especially among young people. The newest challenges for the president will be to maintain the majority in the National Assembly after the June elections, and to continue reforms to increase the competitiveness of the French economy in the difficult macroeconomic conditions.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after Nine Weeks of Fighting

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Despite the formal launch of the second stage of the offensive against Ukraine on 19 April, Russia has failed so far to break through the Ukrainian defences in the east of the country. Intense fighting is taking place there but no significant change in the military situation should be expected in the near future. At the same time, it is increasingly important to supply Ukraine not only with defensive weapons but also other weapon systems such as tanks, artillery, and infantry fighting vehicles to allow it to maintain a defensive position and mount possible counterattacks. At a conference in Rammstein, Germany, on 26 April, Western countries agreed to increase and coordinate such support.

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Ukraine’s Great Need for Heavy Artillery

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 26 April, the U.S. initiated the Ukraine Contact Group, which will coordinate military equipment and weapons aid from at least 43 states to Ukraine. One of the group’s priorities will be to provide heavy artillery and ammunition, which are critical to Ukraine’s defence. With the focus of Russia’s operations on the east and south of Ukraine, the defenders are running out of artillery systems and munitions, which should be re-filled quickly. The role of artillery in Russia’s operational art and tactics also have implications for defence planning for the Eastern Flank of NATO.

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The Price of Neutrality - Israel’s Response to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israel’s stance on Russia’s latest aggression against Ukraine remains cautious. The Israeli government is providing political support to Ukraine, focusing on humanitarian aid and assistance for the Jewish population, but avoids directly condemning Russia. Israel’s neutral stance may allow it to play a mediating role but the effectiveness of these actions remains limited.

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Slovakia’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

In the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Slovakia has supported its neighbour diplomatically with humanitarian aid and military resources. The war in the country next door, particularly the inflow of refugees, is a logistical challenge for the Slovak authorities as well as politically because of ongoing internal disputes. However, it represents another political and social breakthrough in terms of defining Slovakia’s national security and the perception of Russia in the country.

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The Global Oil Market and the Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had the knock-on effect of a sudden increase in oil prices on the world market and OPEC+ countries have not yet been willing to respond to increase supplies. In an effort to limit Russia’s budget revenues from the oil trade, Canada, the U.S. and, the United Kingdom have embargoed Russian crude. While the EU has not joined them, the effects of the rapid changes in the oil market, European consumers will see sharp increases in the prices of goods and services with the European economy potentially slipping into stagflation.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Military operations in Ukraine continued in four directions - two in the south of the country, one in the east, and one in the north. In all these regions, especially in encircled cities, such as Mariupol and Kharkiv, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating. Despite suffering significant losses, Russia still has the ability to support its fighting units, although it still has difficulties, especially with logistics.

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Sweden on the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused Sweden to further tighten its relations with the U.S. and deepen cooperation with NATO. It is in tandem with Finland, with which it closely coordinates next steps to strengthen defence in the Nordic-Baltic region. In Sweden, however, the political debate on membership in the Alliance is less advanced.

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Bulgaria’s Reaction to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

The Bulgarian authorities - despite the strong pro-Russia sentiments of part of the society and some political groups - condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They also have accepted war refugees. However, given its energy dependence on Russia, Bulgaria is avoiding demands for a radical tightening of sanctions, especially on Russian gas and oil. At the same time, because of its traditional policy of balancing between Russia and Turkey, it is reluctant to strengthen NATO’s presence on its territory.

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Russia’s Nuclear Threats During the Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

From the beginning of the invasion, Russia has been trying to deter Western countries from supporting Ukraine. It did not threaten an immediate nuclear attack, but has been signalling that further escalation might lead to it. This was met with a measured response from NATO nuclear-armed countries and has not prevented arms deliveries to Ukraine nor the imposition of sanctions on Russia. The fear of nuclear war with Russia, however, did influence the NATO decision to exclude direct involvement in the conflict and resistance of some allies to actions that, in their opinion, could be interpreted by Russia as joining the hostilities.

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Cluster Munitions and Thermobaric Weapons in Russia’s Military Tactics in Ukraine

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Despite the relative progress of its offensive in southern Ukraine, Russia is far from achieving the main political goal of regime change or capitulation of the government in Ukraine. Russia might now adapt its forces’ tactics and capabilities for siege and urban warfare in the main cities and capital of Ukraine. Elements of this adaptation might be a much bigger role for cluster munitions and thermobaric weapons, which are especially dangerous for both the defenders and civilians of Ukraine.

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ASEAN Countries’ Reactions to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The approach of individual members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to the Russian aggression varies and is reflected in the indecisiveness of the entire organisation. In the context of ASEAN’s underlying principles, including sovereignty and territorial integrity, such a stance could damage its reputation as a defender of the rules-based international order. The conflict in Ukraine may also affect ASEAN countries, for example, through turbulence in the world economy.

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Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine and the Threat to Cultural Heritage

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English

The shelling and bombing of Ukrainian cities threaten the cultural heritage of Ukraine, including the most important sites inscribed on the UNESCO list. International law provides for the protection of cultural property, and the provisions of the relevant conventions are applicable during this war. Given the scale of the Russian attacks, the international community should join Ukraine’s efforts to preserve endangered assets.

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Lithuania on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Lithuania actively supports Ukraine in the political and military dimensions. It argues that the NATO partners should provide the besieged country with all available means. Moreover, it perceives the Russian aggression as a threat to its own security and that of the other Baltic States. That is why it is striving to strengthen NATO’s Eastern Flank, which was the subject of talks on 7 March between the Lithuanian government and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Vilnius.

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Canada’s Reaction to the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

During his trip to Europe on 6-11 March, which included a visit to Warsaw, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tightened cooperation with NATO allies (Germany, Latvia, and the UK) on support for Ukraine. Following Russia’s attack, Trudeau announced subsequent shipments of military equipment for Ukraine, including lethal weapons. The goal of his trip also was to coordinate economic sanctions and humanitarian aid for refugees. Closer cooperation with Poland on issues of delivering humanitarian help and evacuating Ukrainian refugees from Poland and Central European countries to Canada will be crucial.

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