Likely Consequences of Council of Europe Concessions to Russia
Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; European Union; European Council; sanctions against Russia; Russia’s annexation of Crimea; violation Ukraine’s territorial integrity;
There is a growing view in the Council of Europe (CoE) to abandon the sanctions imposed on Russia for its violations of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. Since the objectives of the sanctions—especially Russia’s withdrawal from Crimea—have not been achieved, lifting them would jeopardise the credibility of the organisation and, with Russia having suspended payments to the CoE, could be interpreted as giving in to coercion.
Attempts to Weaken Romania’s Anti-Corruption Law: Implications for Internal and European Policy
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Romania; weakening anti-corruption law; internal policy; European policy; rule of law; corruption; change of government;
On 29 January, the third cabinet of Romania’s ruling coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) was established. Prime Minister Viorică Dăncila’s intention is to weaken the country’s anti-corruption laws. These changes are criticised by the U.S. and in the European Union as undermining the rule of law in Romania. This may strengthen EU supporters of the idea to connect structural fund payments to adherence to the rule of law.
EU Enlargement in the Balkans: New Prospects for Resolving Old Challenges
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; EU enlargement policy; Balkan states; EU’s policy towards Western Balkans;
On 6 February, the European Commission adopted the document titled, “A credible enlargement perspective for and enhanced EU engagement with the Western Balkans.” This special document, published outside the regular order, announces a return to the perception of enlargement as Union strategic policy. It is a response to the stagnation in the process and external threats, primarily from Russia. To strengthen Member State support of the Balkans on their path to the EU, Poland can complement its own actions with those based on the guidelines found in the new document.
NATO plans to expand its presence in Iraq. Despite the initially small scale, the mission may have much political significance, facilitating the Alliance’s adaptation to the Russian challenge. A significant increase in responsibilities for Iraq’s security could, however, strain the Alliance’s command structure, limiting its ability to carry out collective-defence tasks.
China’s Environmental Disaster: Social Problem and Business Opportunity
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; economic development; environmental pollution; health of Chinese inhabitants; climate policy; environmental protection; green economy;
China’s economic development model has led to significant environmental contamination. The scale of the damage endangers the life and health of China’s inhabitants. The authorities are aware that their lack of action in the past has undermined their credibility and harmed China’s image worldwide. In 2015, the Chinese government declared a “war on pollution” and signed up for commitments under the Paris climate agreement. Simultaneously, China aims to develop the green sector of its economy. Actions it’s taken so far include a reduction in smog in 2017, but a lasting improvement in the country’s environmental condition is slowed by the huge costs of it and the resistance of local authorities. China can be expected to be moderately engaged in the implementation of the Paris agreement.
Limitations of the Sanctions Policy towards North Korea
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: UN Security Council; North Korea; sanctions against North Korea; sanctions policy; denuclearisation;
Over the last two years, the UN Security Council (UNSC) has adopted five resolutions imposing a wide range of sanctions on North Korea to induce it to denuclearise, unsuccessfully. The reasons are the North’s determination to develop its nuclear and missile programmes and its ability to circumvent the sanctions. Other countries also have not fully complied with the provisions of the resolutions. The existing sanctions-based policy should be supplemented with multilateral diplomatic engagement aimed at achieving goals less ambitious than denuclearisation.
Keywords: Democratic Republic of Congo; Congo crisis; United Nations; Security Council; UN stabilisation forces; political situation; humanitarian crisis;
In March, the Security Council will decide on the future of MONUSCO, the UN stabilisation force in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The role of this UN contingent, its biggest and most expensive, is increasing with the evolution of the situation in Congo and Central Africa in general. The political deadlock caused by Congolese President Joseph Kabila’s reluctance to quit and the deepening humanitarian crisis in the country affect UN policies towards it. The humanitarian and political engagement of the UN in the region also need corrections.
The protests in Iran underscored both the requirement for deep economic reforms and the tensions in the Iranian ruling elite. President Hassan Rouhani’s reform proposals may generate further tensions, and the result of reforms may influence the shape of the Iranian political scene in the longer term. Although the protesters criticised Iran’s engagement in Middle Eastern conflicts, it is unlikely that the authorities will decide to limit it. Yet, the Iranian government will strengthen efforts to ensure an EU guarantee for the nuclear deal.
Italy’s Elections: Possible Results and Implications for the EU
Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Italy; European Union; Italian parliamentary elections; forming a new government; Italian political scene;
On 4 March, parliamentary elections will take place in Italy. According to polls, none of the political parties has a chance to stand alone. What’s more, the likely coalitions would not guarantee a majority sufficient to form a government. The uncertainty on the Italian political scene after these elections will be a challenge for the European Union. The results may delay the EU reform process inaugurated after the Brexit referendum, especially since Eurosceptic parties will play an important role in the Italian elections.
Keywords: United States; reductions in nuclear arms; nuclear weapons; security policy; nuclear deterrence;
The U.S. administration sees the current prospects for further reductions in nuclear arms as dim and has broken with efforts to decrease the role of nuclear weapons in American security policy. In turn, it has put more emphasis on deterrence. The U.S. plans to continue modernisation of its strategic forces but also to develop two additional capabilities to counter the potential of limited nuclear attacks. While it seeks strengthening of nuclear deterrence within NATO, changes in U.S. policy will complicate discussions on that matter.
Lithuania: Ukraine’s Advocate in the International Arena
Author(s): Kinga Raś,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Lithuania; support to Ukraine; international relations; reform process in Ukraine; bilateral relations;
Lithuania consistently supports Ukraine in the international arena while other European countries’ maintenance of ties with the Ukrainian authorities is gradually decreasing, in part because of the slow pace of reform. Both countries have intensified cooperation in the political, military and energy spheres, facilitated by the lack of contentious issues in bilateral relations. The Lithuanian authorities also expect their commitment to Ukraine will strengthen their country’s international position.
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: World Trade Organisation; XI WTO Ministerial Conference; regulation of subsidies for agriculture and fisheries; rules for e-commerce;
The XI WTO Ministerial Conference held on 10–13 December 2017 in Buenos Aires confirmed that the World Trade Organisation is in crisis. Representatives of its 164 members did not agree on any of the issues discussed, including the regulation of subsidies for agriculture and fisheries or rules for e-commerce. Some participants, however, announced the creation of working groups on selected issues, including the latter. These groups are to develop solutions that could then be adopted by other members. This could increase the chances of unblocking WTO functions in specific areas.
Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; reforms in gas sector; Nord Stream 2 gas pipe line; national oil and gas company Naftohaz; restructuring of Naftohaz;
Ukraine has started reforming its gas sector simultaneous with its struggle against Russian aggression and trying to prevent the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would deprive the country of most of its current gas transit revenues. However, further reforms are hampered by the lack of political will among Ukrainian authorities. The slow pace of the reforms and a dispute between the government and management of Naftohaz have negatively affected Ukraine’s international image. These factors could lead to a situation in which gas transit via Ukraine no longer is considered a viable alternative to the new Gazprom pipelines, which would seriously undermine Poland’s diplomatic efforts in support of Ukraine’s opposition to Nord Stream 2.
Denmark Increases Its Contribution to the Deterrence of Russia
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Denmark; NATO collective defence and deterrence; security of the Nordic-Baltic region; Poland’s security cooperation with Denmark;
Denmark has announced a significant increase in its combat capabilities for NATO collective defence and deterrence. The Danes’ importance to the security of the Nordic-Baltic region may increase further with the construction of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline, which could limit Central Europe’s dependence on Russian energy resources. This creates new opportunities for Poland to deepen security cooperation with Denmark.
The Political and Military Consequences of Russia’s Involvement in Syria
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; Syria; Russia’s involvement in Syria; withdrawal of the Russian armed forces; peace process;
In December 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the withdrawal of most of the Russian armed forces in Syria, declaring Russia had achieved its main two political and military goals—keeping Bashar al-Assad in power and defeating the Islamic State group. However, because the situation in Syria remains unstable, this decision means only a reduction of the Russian contingent. At the same time, Russian diplomacy will engage in the peace process and activities associated with it, such as the Congress of Syrian National Dialogue in Sochi on 29–30 January.
Hungary’s Post-2020 EU Budget Negotiations Strategy
Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Hungary; Multiannual Financial Framework; negotiations for the budget; EU budget; European asylum system;
Hungary’s main goal during negotiations of the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), which are to start in May 2018, will be to maintain structural funds at the current level. Poland and other Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have a similar position. To accomplish this, Hungary has begun building its negotiating position as a pro-EU country, one that respects the rule of law and is ready to increase its contributions to the EU budget and participate in the future European asylum system.
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; Trump administration; US space strategy; government-run space programmes; space technology development; US space programme partners;
The Trump administration has modified U.S. space strategy to more widely include the private sector in government-run space programmes, which could result in an acceleration of technological development and revival of the industry. If successful, the U.S. would strengthen its position as the leader of space services, especially in the face of China’s similar ambitions.
Changes in the Main Assumptions of the U.S. National Defense Strategy
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; US National Defense Strategy; US National Security Strategy; armed forces; international military cooperation;
The U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS) expands on the main conclusions of the National Security Strategy (NSS) approved at the end of 2017, which recognised that America’s most important threats come from China and Russia, not from international terrorism. The unclassified summary of the NDS signals the beginning of changes in U.S. strategic and operational plans, as well as in the structures and equipment of its armed forces. Together with other Trump administration documents, it reveals the U.S. priorities and its growing expectations of its allies.
Germany’s Energiewende: No Abandonment, Just Revision
Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany, Energiewende; energy transformation policy; reducing greenhouse gas emissions; climate policy; energy policy;
The coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD on the creation of a new government confirmed that Germany has a problem with implementation of its energy transformation policy. However, this fact neither means a departure from Energiewende, nor a change in its assumptions. The new government will revise the strategy and focus on the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. In the European Union, Germany will remain the promoter of ambitious climate and energy policy.
Ukraine’s Law on the Occupied Territories in Donbas
Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions; law on occupied territories; conflict with Russia; Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory; state security;
A new law in Ukraine concerning the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbas) regions is mainly declarative and constitutes an attempt by the country’s authorities to work out a modus vivendi for these areas. The law’s adoption will not affect the prospects of ending the conflict. It is, however, part of Ukraine’s activities aimed at increasing the political cost to Russia over the occupation of Ukrainian territory.
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