Roles of Europe and NATO in the New U.S. National Security Strategy
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: United States; NATO; US National Security Strategy; new threats from Russia; Islamic State; US military presence in Europe;
The U.S. updated its National Security Strategy to reflect new threats from Russia and the so-called Islamic State. In response to Russia’s recent aggressive actions, the U.S is ready to increase its rotational military presence in Europe. However, in the long term, it will rely on the increased capacity of NATO to deal with the threats from different directions. To advance its security interests, Poland will have to strengthen the cohesion of NATO and make the most of the defence modernisation programme to further enhance its position in the Alliance and on the bilateral level with the U.S.
EU Security Sector Reform Requires Revision to Achieve and Maintain Its Goals
Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; security sector reform; army; police; intelligence services; preventing violence and terrorism;
In recent years, the European Union has been increasingly active in promoting the idea of security sector reform. To date, the EU has launched a number of operations within the CSDP framework that have been devoted entirely to the implementation of it, mostly in African countries. Among the tasks of these missions has been to implement good governance rules, reconstruct the country’s security institutions (army, police, intelligence services and the like) and create mechanisms to prevent violence towards the most vulnerable groups. Despite the EU’s institutional and financial efforts, the achievements of these missions are rather modest and have little or no influence on the capabilities of these countries to protect their citizens from violence.
The Modernisation of the Russian Army: Too Ambitious for the Local Defence Industry
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; Russian army; modernization of army; local defence industry; lack of qualified engineers; investments in military research and development; Russian rearming programme;
Problems with the implementation of the Russian rearming programme were caused primarily by the failure of the local defence industry. The main challenges that Russia is facing in this area are not only connected with the breaking of cooperation with the Ukrainian defence industry, or with Western sanctions, but also with internal problems such as a lack of qualified young engineers and investment in research and development. Overcoming these difficulties will take time (at least a few years), and will need significant funding from the state budget.
Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; Russian demography; outflow of capital from Russia; political and economic crisis; economic uncertainty; citizens moving out form Russia; migration; decrease of human capital; social policy; population growth;
The record high outflow of capital from Russia in 2014 is the most obvious consequence of the Kremlin’s military intrusion into Ukraine. But it is not only investors who resent the regional security crisis and economic uncertainty. Preliminary data for 2014 and early 2015 show that Russian citizens are leaving the country in greater numbers, while Russia does not attract as many migrants as before. Shrinking human capital, coupled with a massive cash exodus will, if they continue for a long period, weaken the Russian economy and might shatter its power position in the post-Soviet neighbourhood.
Corruption Out, Schengen In: Time for a Fair Discussion on Romania
Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English
Keywords: Romania; Schengen area; Romania’s accession to Schengen; Cooperation and Verification Mechanism; fight against corruption; improving rule of law in Romania;
Although there is no technical link between Romania’s Schengen accession and the conclusion of the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM) in the fight against corruption, politically the two issues have been tied. This kind of conditionality is neither credible nor efficient. It is thus high time to decouple CVM from Schengen: continue the first, finding alternative incentives for Romania to improve the rule of law, and at the same time launch a frank discussion on the prospects of Schengen enlargement.
The Slavkov Triangle: A Rival to the Visegrad Group?
Author(s): Dariusz Kałan / Language(s): English
Keywords: Visegrad Group V4; Slavkov Triangle; Austria the Czech Republic and Slovakia; local platform for energy and infrastructure improvement;
The format and objectives of the so-called Slavkov Triangle, which was established at the end of January, have not yet been clearly defined by the signatory states, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The initiative could evolve in the direction of a local platform aimed at improving energy and infrastructure relations, a project for the implementation of leftist economic doctrine in the EU, or a pro-Russian avant-garde. Regardless of the final alignment of the triangle, its creation is troublesome for the Visegrad Group. Its declared range of activities, including the idea consultations before the European Council, is so wide that it could duplicate some of the V4 projects.
Corporate Cultural Responsibility and the Promotion of Polish Business Abroad
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: corporate social responsibility; corporate cultural responsibility; Polish companies abroad; culture as marketing and bending tool; global market; creating a positive brand;
Culture can be a powerful marketing and branding tool for corporations and states alike. As Polish companies strengthen the Corporate Social Responsibility model while competing on global markets, they should also pay special attention to supporting culture. The stronger engagement of business in cultural diplomacy would bring extra resources and create a synergy between the efforts of the private and public sectors to build Poland as a positive brand. To facilitate this cooperation, the government can create new mechanisms and regulations that will attract greater business involvement in such promotion.
Ukraine: Local Government Reform Accelerates, but Slowly
Author(s): Adriana Skorupska,Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; local government reform; EU assistance; training programmes for officials; Ukrainian government; decentralisation of power;
Local government reform was supposed to be one of the priorities of the Ukrainian government. Despite declarations by political parties and the newly elected president and international support, the pace of change is slow. It is essential that the declarations are followed by more decisive action on the part of the Ukrainian authorities. EU assistance in the form of outside expert help should place a greater emphasis on the preparation of local authorities and communities for reform and include training programmes for officials and local activists.
NATO Spearhead Needs a Shield on the Eastern Flank
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; strengthening the NATO’s rapid-response capabilities; eastern flank; training facilities; defence policy;
NATO defence ministers have agreed to strengthen the Alliance’s rapid-response capabilities. Immediate reaction forces supported by headquarters cells deployed in six bloc border states will strengthen the defences on its eastern flank. The so-called spearhead, however, should be complemented with a “shield” of credible deterrence and permanent training facilities.
A New President in Croatia: No Internal Changes, Tougher Relations with Serbia
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Croatia; presidential elections; President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović; Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ); foreign policy; Croatian-Serbian relations; Croatian neighbourhood policy;
On 15 February, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, from the right-wing Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), will replace social democrat Ivo Josipović, who has been in office for five years, as president of Croatia. The expectations of society relate primarily to an improvement in Croatia’s economic situation, but due to limited powers, the change of president will not cause any fundamental shifts. However, it can be expected that there will be implications for policy concerning neighbouring states, especially Serbia. The change in president is also a sign that the people of Croatia will broadly support the opposition in the parliamentary elections scheduled for later this year.
From a Follower to a Rule-Shaper: Augmenting China’s FTA Policy
Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; active economic diplomacy; free trade agreements; China-EU economic cooperation;
In Xi Jinping’s term, China has pursued active economic diplomacy. One of its manifestations has been free trade agreements. Apart from economic rationales—trade and investment creation effects— political considerations have played a role as well. FTAs build China’s leadership and establish its status as a rule-maker. Beijing’s concerns about two key trade agreements, TPP and TTIP, which will introduce new norms to the global economy, might be incentives for China to step up with ambitious agreements to avoid being bypassed. As China–EU FTA talks are not on the table, the Union should concentrate on an investment treaty with Beijing and engage China in multilateral WTO negotiations to address the EU’s demands.
The UK’s Counterterrorism Policy in Its Relations with the EU
Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English
Keywords: United Kingdom; European Union; UK’s counterterrorism policy; terrorist networks; rising terrorist threats; foreign fighters returning from Islamic State;
The United Kingdom plays a special role in countering terrorism in the EU, as it is one of the most threatened Member States, and a territory that is often used by terrorist networks to recruit new members and prepare new attacks. Due to this, the “Brexit” scenario, improbable as it is for now, means that other Member States, with less developed counterterrorist policies, must strengthen their cooperation with their British partners, especially in the light of the rising terrorist threat emanating from foreign fighters returning from the Islamic State.
Keywords: Turkey; Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK); Turkey-PKK peace negotiations; threat of ISIS on the Turkish border; fight against ISIS; territorial integrity of the region;
The peace negotiations between Turkey and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) will enter a critical moment prior to Turkey’s general elections on 7 June 2015. Despite a mutual commitment to a political solution, the peace process is at risk of failure because it is vulnerable to several factors, including potential rifts within the PKK leadership, the threat of ISIS on the Turkish border and the upcoming elections, which the government wants to go ahead undisturbed. While cooperating in the fight against ISIS, the EU and the U.S. should support the peace process while also emphasising to Kurdish forces their commitment to the territorial integrity of the region.
Never-ending Story: Scenarios for Further Nuclear Negotiations with Iran
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Nuclear negotiations; Iran; quality of Tehran’s uranium enrichment; political agreement; sanctions against Iran; nuclear dispute;
The latest round of nuclear negotiations with Iran has been recognised as having made limited progress without bringing a compromise on the essential issues of the scale and quality of Tehran’s uranium enrichment any closer. Prolonged talks may yet end in either fiasco or success, however the development of a framework political agreement to bring forward the deadline for an agreement on technical details to July 2015 would be the optimal result. Only with the conclusion of these agreements would the possibility that the EU may gradually phase out its sanctions and more opportunities for bilateral contacts with Iran emerge.
Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Greece; parliamentary elections; leaving eurozone; European Monetary Union; Greek withdrawal from EMU; Greek debt crisis; financial restructuring;
With the Greek parliamentary elections approaching, the possibility the country may leave the eurozone is gaining momentum. An analysis of the various legal, political and economic implications of EMU withdrawal indicates that the best option for the EU would be to solve the Greek debt crisis as it stands, with the second option being a two-tier euro arrangement for countries undergoing financial restructuring.
EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: Opportunities and Challenges for European Businesses
Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; Vietnam; free trade agreement; economic cooperation; reduction of customs and administrative barriers; EU companies on Vietnamese market;
The Free Trade Agreement currently under negotiation between the EU and Vietnam can reduce customs and administrative barriers in access to both markets and thus contribute to closer bilateral trade and investment cooperation. It could be also an incentive for European companies to enhance their presence in a prospective yet poorly saturated Vietnamese market. EU Member States should intensify efforts to support European entrepreneurs to seize business opportunities emerging from the implementation of the agreement.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; Russian armed forces; modernization of military; nuclear forces; developing military industry;
In the coming years, regardless of the economic crisis, Russia will be aiming to renew its armed forces. The modernisation of its conventional forces, which have to be better prepared to respond to asymmetric threats, especially in its neighbourhood, and of its nuclear forces, which remain a pillar of the country’s strategic deterrence component, will continue. According to the latest version of the country’s military doctrine, the strategic importance of the Arctic and Black seas will also increase. An increase in investment in the modernisation of the country’s military-industrial complex to fulfil these upgrade plans should also be expected.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; Islamic State; Islamic state as threat to Europe and Russia; spreading Islamic ideology; American and European policies in the Middle East; anti-terrorism; military operations in the Middle East;
The Islamic State’s military offensive constitutes not only a threat to other states of the region, Europe and the United States, but also to Russia. This is down to the potency of the spread of Islamist ideology within the borders of the Caucasus entities of the Russian Federation, and also the latter’s international environment. For this reason, while criticising the American and European policies in the Middle East, Russia is simultaneously in favour of armed activities aimed at the Islamic State, and the Russian authorities are proposing the formation of a new, anti-terrorism coalition under the auspices of the United Nations. Poland should join it only if the U.S. and EU Member States are also going to participate.
Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka,Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Latvia; European Union; Latvian EU presidency; economic reforms; digitization; policy towards Russia; Energy Union;
Despite the formal limitations on the role of the EU presidency, it can still be an important political tool for countries holding it. Latvia, which has just assumed the presidency of the EU Council, will try to use it to push reforms important from its point of view in economic governance and digitisation. From the Polish perspective, it is important that the Latvian presidency effectively handles less convenient topics such as policy towards Russia and the Energy Union.
Serbia’s Gas Supply Dilemma (and Others) in Its Relations with Russia
Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English
Keywords: Serbia; South Stream gas pipeline; Serbia’s gas supply; gas supply routes; diversification of gas sources; energy strategy; Serbian-Russian relations;
The declaration made in December by Russian President Vladimir Putin cancelled the plans to build the South Stream gas pipeline, controversial among most of the EU countries. For Serbia, it means both the necessity to look for new ways to change the gas supply routes and a chance to consider the diversification of sources. For the EU, it opens the prospect of closer cooperation with Belgrade as Serbia, a country that will probably become a member of the Union within a decade, develops its new energy strategy.
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