The Forgotten Fifth Element: Support of Entrepreneurship in the Eastern Partnership Region
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English
Keywords: Eastern Partnership region; economic integration of the eastern partners with the Union; business environment reforms; economic policy; transformation process; support of entrepreneurship; private sector;
The private sector is an important driving force of the transformation process in the Eastern Partnership region. Still, the sector’s development is not a top priority for the EU. In order to speed up the economic integration of the eastern partners with the Union, the Commission should work out a new policy to boost entrepreneurship, including increased pressure on EaP governments to pursue business environment reforms and comprehensive funding mechanisms. In order to facilitate this process, Poland might help by offering its pre-accession experience.
NATO and the EU Should Urgently Strengthen Cyberdefence for Critical Infrastructure
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; European Union; cyberdefence; cyberattack against Sony; potential of cyberweapons; cybersecurity and defence standards; computer emergency response teams (CERTs); threats to critical infrastructure;
The cyberattack against Sony indicates the potential of cyberweapons, which could be used against critical infrastructure (CI) to undermine the stability of a country or even a whole region. To avoid such a scenario, governments and private companies have to advance coherent cybersecurity and defence standards. NATO and the EU should also take an important step towards interoperability by introducing standard operating procedures for computer emergency response teams (CERTs).
Time for Catharsis: More Reform in Greece in Return for Debt Reduction
Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Greece; economic crisis; recovery of Greek economy; debt reduction; government reforms; public debt;
Greece is still stuck in a deep economic crisis, and the chances of a fast recovery are slim. The blame for this lies with both the Greek government, for retarding the pace of reforms, and the “Troika,” for focusing too heavily on austerity measures. The optimal solution is to focus on strengthening the institutions of Greece and make supply-side reforms in exchange for the promise of debt relief.
Go Global: Towards a New Polish Strategy on Developing Countries
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Poland; non-European developing countries; Polish strategy on developing countries; foreign policy; economic cooperation with developing countries;
As the 2004 strategy towards non-European developing countries is becoming increasingly outdated, a new comprehensive vision is required to strengthen the global dimension of Polish foreign policy. The rising political significance and economic opportunities in the Global South call for crucial readjustments in Poland’s worldview. To make the best use of limited capabilities, a new strategy must focus on emerging economies and a few regional hubs in the developing world, and increase Poland’s presence there through an effective mix of available political, economic, and cultural instruments.
A Post-Pandemic Budget: The New Multiannual Financial Framework 2021–2027
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: European Union; European Commission; issuing bonds for financing the economic recovery; COVID-19 pandemic; EU budget; economic development; multiannual financial framework;
The European Commission (EC) wants to issue bonds to finance the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic without reducing the budgets of existing common policies. The axis of the larger EU budget will be the implementation of two key projects launched before the pandemic: the green and digital transitions. The Commission proposal has elements that are attractive for both sides of the debate about the EU budget and it is, therefore, likely that the final outcome of the negotiations will not be much different.
Surveillance in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: People’s Republic of China; COVID-19 pandemic; surveillance during the pandemic; surveillance as tool of power; surveillance of society;
Surveillance of society is one of the main tools of power in China. The COVID-19 pandemic gave the government an excuse to intensify oversight, including through the solutions previously used mainly against Uighurs in Xinjiang. The effectiveness of surveillance is important to the Chinese authorities because of possible unrest arising from economic problems connected with COVID-19. The importance of surveillance in managing the virus in China has also led to demand in democratic countries to introduce similar practices.
Surveillance and Control: Russia during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Author(s): Jakub Benedyczak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russian Federation; COVID-19 pandemic; surveillance and control; increased repressive measures; digital control of society; potential protests;
COVID-19 has become an opportunity for the Russian authorities to increase repressive measures and test Chinese solutions for digital control of society. Most of the solutions will probably be maintained after the pandemic eases, especially given the deepening economic crisis and potential of protests.
Latvia’s economic situation is gradually deteriorating due to its uneven development. One of the main reasons for this is that the metropolis of Riga accounts for as much as two-thirds of the country’s economic growth. Economic and social indicators for Latvia’s regions are sometimes several times lower than those for its capital. The non-metropolitan areas are struggling with numerous problems: high unemployment, an aging population, deteriorating living standards, insufficient medical care, or a shrinking network of educational institutions. Another important fact is that local governments often function like ‘appanage principalities’. If the current trends continue, the state will continue to fall behind its neighbours Estonia and Lithuania.
The undeclared war. A new phase of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict
Author(s): Wojciech Górecki,Krzysztof Strachota / Language(s): English
Keywords: Second Karabakh War; Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict; Nagorno-Karabakh conflict;
More than two years after the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020, the situation in the conflict area remains highly unstable. Despite declarations of a de facto solution to the problem, intensive peace talks and Armenia signalling significant concessions on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the region is once again becoming a flashpoint, as manifested by Azerbaijan’s blockade of it since December. In the process, the conflict has escalated to an open dispute between the two states. Azerbaijan has been provoking Armenia with military attacks along the line of the non-delimited state border (along which there was fierce fighting last September), and suggesting it might forcibly take over transportation routes (the so-called Zangezur corridor) on its neighbour’s territory.
A ‘key state’: India is gaining significance as a political and economic partner for Germany
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło,Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: India; Germany; economic cooperation; political dialogue; Indo-German relations; low labour costs;
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to India in February this year was unlike his other foreign trips. This visit was important not only politically but also economically: the German chancellor was accompanied by managers of companies such as Siemens, ThyssenKrupp, Deutsche Post and SAP. This once again proves Germany’s growing interest in building stronger relations with India. In June 2022, Scholz invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a G7 meeting at Schloss Elmau. Only two months earlier, Modi had paid an official visit to Berlin during the sixth bilateral intergovernmental consultations. In February this year, in addition to the chancellor himself, Christian Lindner (FDP) and Annalena Baerbock (Greens) visited India. Their visits were part of meetings of the finance and foreign affairs ministers of the G20 group.
The EU’s Global Gateway Strategy: Opportunities and Challenges
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Global Gateway; economic policy; EaP region; China;
The Global Gateway (GG) strategy aims to increase the EU’s infrastructure connections on a global scale. The strategy might lead to improving the Union’s image, for example, in its immediate vicinity, and increasing the participation of Member State entities in the implementation of EU projects. The challenge is how to effectively coordinate the strategy amongst EU institutions and get private sector cooperation. For Poland, it will be important to accelerate investments in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region and to diversify transport corridors from the EU to China.
“Europe as a Task”: the Czech Presidency of the EU Council
Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; EU Council; Europe; Czech Republic; presidency;
The Czech presidency of the EU Council, which began on 1 July, is to be dominated by actions aimed at helping Ukraine, gaining trade and energy independence from Russia, strengthening the security and economic resilience of the Union, and protecting democratic values. These goals are in line with the policy priorities of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government, which will likely work earnestly towards their implementation. This is a favourable circumstance for Poland, as these assumptions generally coincide with its objectives, in particular with regard to Ukraine, security, and energy.
Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: Belarus; Armed Forces; military policy; upgrade; foreign policy;
On 26 May, Alexander Lukashenka announced the creation of a third operational command – South - of the Belarusian Armed Forces. He also announced plans to speed up rearming of the army, arguing that the threat posed by Ukraine and NATO countries is growing. However, given the country’s budgetary constraints, the proposed reform will not mean a significant increase in the potential of the Belarusian army in the near future. The change most likely stems from the needs of the Russian Armed Forces related to the war in Ukraine and other reasons. It also shows that the Belarusian authorities have become completely dependent on Russia in their security and defence policy.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine has intensified Taiwan’s preparations for a possible military attack by China, for which the annexation of the island remains a strategic goal. In the short term, aggression by China is unlikely, but according to the Taiwanese authorities, an invasion scenario is realistic within a few years. At the same time, the public’s faith in U.S. support in the event of a conflict is diminishing. In this situation, the EU should strengthen cooperation with the island, as well as prepare plans to respond to a possible attack on it by China.
NATO Madrid Summit: a Response to Russia’s Revisionism
Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; NATO; Madrid Summit; security;
NATO’s new strategy identifies Russia as the main military threat to the Alliance, which declares the strengthening of defence and deterrence. It is in Poland’s interest to implement the plans to establish NATO brigade structures on the Eastern Flank as soon as possible and to develop a new model of reinforcement forces. Poland should also continue its efforts to secure the permanent combat presence of U.S. troops on its territory. It will play a crucial role in the further adaptation of the Alliance to the long-term threats from Russia and China.
Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; society;
Social mobilisation in Ukraine in the face of the Russian aggression remains high. The majority of the population actively supports the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces and the authorities, and there are relatively few cases of collaboration with enemy forces in the occupied territories. However, the lack of prospects for a quick end to the war may weaking the determination to resist. That is why it is important to provide support directly to Ukrainian society, including humanitarian aid.
The EU’s Difficulties with Increasing Gas Imports from Arab States
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Arab States; Gas; import; trade; energy;
In mid-June, the EU signed an agreement with Egypt and Israel as part of an effort to increase gas imports from the Middle East and North Africa. However, among the obstacles to replacing Russian supplies with gas from this region are the limited infrastructure and the high demands of exporting countries. To increase the chances of success in this area, the EU may propose to combine gas purchase contracts with investments in the development of local renewable energy sources and new technologies.
During the European Council summit on 23 June, Georgia was not granted EU candidate status, unlike Ukraine and Moldova, and received only the prospect of EU accession. Georgia is the most pro-European state in the South Caucasus. The effectiveness of its Euro-Atlantic foreign policy course is hampered by internal political polarisation and Russia’s policies towards the region. Georgia’s continued cooperation with the EU and NATO will depend primarily on its willingness to implement reforms and the development of an internal consensus between the government and opposition.
According to the strategy adopted by NATO in Madrid, preventing and responding to security crises in the Alliance neighbourhood remains one of its tasks. However, the experience of nearly three decades of missions outside the treaty area, especially Afghanistan, has contributed to a change in NATO’s approach to one that intends to engage more in prevention rather than direct intervention. Capacity-building and enhancing the resilience of NATO partners, including civilian crisis management, will become increasingly important.
According to polls, the Turkish opposition candidate has a chance to defeat Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in next year’s presidential elections. Although the opposition parties’ vision of foreign policy is not consistent, as evidenced by public divergences in, for example, the approach to the EU or the war in Ukraine, they remain consistent with the need to improve Türkiye’s relations with the West.
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