The global energy crisis has highlighted the weakness in the French energy sector. The nuclear branch, which was supposed to ensure the state’s independence, is struggling with technological problems, the state-owned EDF group is heavily indebted, and production from renewables remains below expectations. The initial government reaction has been aimed at preventing an uncontrolled increase in fuel and energy prices. Now, doubts have been raised about the French president’s ambitious plan for the structural recovery of the energy sector, presented on 10 February, over its financial and technical feasibility.
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Chile; new political opening; Gabriel Boric; presidential election; foreign policy; trading; climate; social policy;
Gabriel Boric from the left-wing coalition won the presidential election in Chile in December and will take over on 11 March. His government will have to tackle both high social expectations, including the expansion of social policy, and the fears of the private sector that these changes will be at its expense. The new authorities will emphasise multilateral cooperation in Latin America in climate policy, the promotion of democracy, and in other areas. They will maintain priority relations with China - Chile’s largest trading partner - and will engage the EU on the negotiations of a new Association Agreement, among other topics.
Changes in China’s Policy Towards Countries of Central Europe
Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English
Keywords: China; policy; Central Europe; foreign policy;
In 2021, China modified its policy towards the countries of Central Europe, differentiating between them in terms of their relations with Taiwan, the U.S., or influence on EU policy towards China. Some states viewed as friendly, including Hungary, Serbia, and Poland, are encouraged to cooperate through such means as investments, but against perceived opponents, such as Lithuania, Czechia, and Slovakia, China uses political and economic sanctions. Relations with the countries of the region are increasingly treated by China as an instrument of influence vis-à-vis Germany and institutions of the EU. It is in the interests of Central European countries to support the reduction of the EU’s economic dependence on China and to restrain political cooperation with it.
Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; gas; EU; energy policy; blackmail;
Russia has cut gas supplies to the EU to force concessions on the status of Donbas and the security architecture in Europe, leading to a deeper energy crisis in the EU. If these supplies are stopped, which is unlikely, LNG imports probably would be insufficient to meet the demand. With Germany halting certification of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline, Russia is likely to keep supply level slow, risking a more serious energy crisis in winter 2022/23 due to difficulties in building up sufficient gas stocks over the summer.
On 5 February, the President of Senegal Macky Sall took over the annual chairmanship of the African Union. The chair’s priorities will be to rebuild the continent’s economies after the pandemic, increase resilience to future crises, and strengthen regional institutions strained by the recent wave of military coups. Polish President Andrzej Duda’s planned visit to Senegal will be an opportunity to place bilateral cooperation in a wider, continental context.
On 10-20 February, Belarus hosted the active phase of the Belarusian-Russian manoeuvres Allied Resolve, after which Russian troops remained in the country. The drills preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February. The scenario was an extension of last year’s Zapad exercises and simulated actions against the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank and Ukraine. The manoeuvres showed Russia’s ability to deploy units over long distances (more than 10,000 km) and the high interoperability of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces. The growing military integration of Belarus and Russia, along with the decision to leave Russian military units in Belarus, is a challenge for NATO in the context of defending its Eastern Flank and its policy towards Ukraine.
Foreign Policy in the Presidential Campaign in South Korea
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: South Korea; presidential campaign; foreign policy; USA; China;
The presidential election in South Korea will be held on 9 March. The main candidates are representatives of the largest political parties: Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the opposition conservative People Power Party. A Lee victory would largely mean the continuation of the current government’s foreign policy - striving for dialogue with North Korea, maintaining a strong alliance with the U.S., and stable relations with China. If Yoon wins, it would increase the likelihood of stronger support of South Korea for the U.S. in its rivalry with China and increased tensions in relations with North Korea. Both candidates condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but draw different conclusions from the war.
The economic crisis caused by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have highlighted that agricultural policy is about ensuring both trade gains as well as sovereignty and food security. The strategic nature of agriculture and the agri-food industry, and the need for protectionist measures, are increasingly emphasised in the French public debate. The challenge for France will be to ensure food sovereignty while continuing the sector’s green transformation.
A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.
In March, the European Parliament (EP) once again opposed the practice of selling EU citizenship and residence rights in exchange for investment in Member States. It also targeted commercial naturalisation offered by third countries benefiting from a visa-free regime with the EU. In order to solve this issue, apart from the Commission’s (EC) legislative proposals, the cooperation of Member States that stop offering “golden” passports and visas, even if only in response to scandals or as part of sanctions such as those recently imposed on Russia and Belarus for their aggression against Ukraine, is indispensable.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a massive humanitarian crisis, both in that country and as the fastest exodus of refugees in Europe since World War II. The scale and dynamic of this migration pose a great challenge primarily to the neighbouring countries of Ukraine, which have little experience in accepting refugees and are not systemically prepared for it. To meet this challenge, they need both ad hoc and long-term support from the EU.
Significance of Syria’s Support for the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Syria; Russia; Ukraine; invasion; support significance;
Syria was one of only five countries that opposed the UN General Assembly (GA) resolution calling for an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Its vote was related to Russia’s support for the Syrian regime, without which itis unable to maintain control over Syrian territory. There also have been reports of recruiting Syrian fighters for a Russian operation in Ukraine. Thus, the Western pressure on Arab states not to return to full relations with the Syrian regime should become part of the efforts to isolate Russia.
Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.
North Korea’s Support for Russia’s Aggression against Ukraine
Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: North Korea; Russia; Ukraine; aggression; support; foreign policy;
North Korea was one of only five countries that voted against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The North Korean support for Russia results mainly from both countries’ hostility towards the U.S., their relatively close bilateral relations in recent years, and Russia’s stance for easing sanctions on North Korea. North Korea-Russia rapprochement may result in cooperation in circumventing sanctions. Russia’s likely veto on any further UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on North Korea may additionally induce the North to resume long-range ballistic missile and nuclear tests.
The Russian armed forces involved in the war against Ukraine are supported by separatist forces, Chechen Rosgvardia units, and mercenaries from the Wagner Group. Before the invasion, Russia used these proxy forces to destabilise Ukraine, while denying direct involvement in the conflict. The irregular forces are now carrying out operational tasks supporting and securing Russian regular troops. The West has limited options to counter Russia’s use of such formations but can activate legal instruments to strengthen international criticism of the Russian government.
Czech presidential election: change on the horizon
Author(s): Krzysztof Dębiec / Language(s): English
Keywords: Czech presidential election; Czech political life; Petr Pavel; Andrej Babiš; Danuše Nerudová;
Miloš Zeman will complete his second presidential term in March 2023. He will be replaced by one of eight candidates who will face off in the January elections. The first round of voting will take place on 13–14 January, with a second round on 27–28 January very likely. Among the contenders, three favourites stand out: two figures from outside politics will face ex-Prime Minister Andrej Babiš (ANO) – General Petr Pavel, the former chairman of the NATO Military Committee; and Danuše Nerudová, the former rector of the Mendel University in Brno and a professor of public finance. Recent polls rule out the possibility of any candidate winning in the first round. If Nerudová’s campaign does not regain momentum, the second round will almost certainly feature Pavel and Babiš, the latter of whom has a disciplined group of voters. However, the former prime minister has limited chances of success there due to his large negative electorate.
On the verge of blackout: Ukraine facing attacks on its electricity generation system
Author(s): Sławomir Matuszak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine's power plants; electricity grid; Missile attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine; Ukraine’s GDP; blackouts;
Ukraine’s power plants and electricity grid have been subjected to regular, massive shelling campaigns using ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones for the past three months. Although they have not so far brought about a permanent nationwide blackout, on several occasions they resulted in significant destabilisation of the grid’s operation. Increasingly frequent power outages (both planned and unplanned, usually lasting many hours) have become daily occurrences in almost all regions of Ukraine. In response to this, Kyiv has prepared measures to secure the state’s continued operation in situations of prolonged power outages. At the end of December 2022, a network of nearly 1500 banking outlets was established to provide banking services regardless of the situation. To ensure that other sectors of the economy can continue operating uninterrupted, filling station and mobile network operators have also taken similar measures. While it is impossible to predict whether Russia will attain its goal, namely to cause a complete and prolonged blackout of Ukraine, the attacks carried out so far have already had a very negative impact on the country’s economy. At the same time, there are no indications that the problems with electricity supplies will break the resistance of Ukrainian society or significantly boost migration.
Netanyahu for the sixth time: the new Israeli government
Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English
Keywords: Benjamin Netanyahu; Israel; Government; Knesset; Likut; government’s foreign policy;
A new Israeli government was sworn in on 29 December 2022, as Benjamin Netanyahu took the helm as prime minister for the sixth time in his career, after a year and a half in opposition. Negotiations on forming a government coalition had been ongoing since early November, when parliamentary elections were held for the fifth time in four years. The new coalition holds 64 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, and consists of six parties: two are ultra-religious, three combine religious and national radicalism, while the largest of them, Likud, is a secular nationalist party. The make-up of the coalition, the views of individual members of the government and its first moves indicate that the new cabinet is Israel’s most religiously conservative and nationalist in its history. We should expect its policies to institute significant changes in many areas of public life. This applies primarily to domestic affairs, but also to some extent to Israel’s relations with the US and Russia, as well as the war in Ukraine.
‘Europe’s engine’ seizing up. French-German relations during the polycrisis
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik,Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: French-German relations; EU’s economic policy; global economy; energy policies; Security;
The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the differences in interests between Paris and Berlin, and caused tension to accumulate in their bilateral relations. The significance of this tension goes beyond the purely bilateral dimension: policy alignment between the EU’s two most important members has always played a key role in the integration mechanism in Europe. However, the current disputes will not necessarily bring an end to this coordination. They are deeply embedded in the patterns of the traditionally divergent approaches which Germany and France have to economic, security, and integration issues, which is why they have not come as any surprise to the ruling elites in these states. Nevertheless, both countries will benefit from overcoming them in the long-term. Efforts to define Franco--German cooperation in an enlarged and more diverse EU will pose an even greater challenge to Paris and Berlin. Flexible coalitions between states and other cooperation formats which arise ad hoc will likely compete with these two leaders.
Safe skies? Air defence on NATO’s northern, eastern and south-eastern flank
Author(s): Jacek Tarociński,Justyna Gotkowska / Language(s): English
Keywords: NATO; Air defence in the Baltic states; Russia; Ukraine; Visegrad Group countries;
The Russian aggression against Ukraine has highlighted the crucial role of air and missile defence in modern full-scale conflicts. A multi-layered, adequately saturated and integrated system is necessary to provide cover for troops, and also to protect the critical infrastructure and major population centres of the countries on NATO’s northern, eastern and south-eastern flank. These countries, along with Sweden and Finland, have varying levels of air defence protection, but none of them are currently sufficient in themselves, and the ongoing efforts to build multi-layered air defences leave much to be desired. Only some of these countries are in the advanced process of modernising and building up their capabilities. There are also some whose systems provide only rudimentary protection, and which have no plans to develop them adequately or are unable to do so for financial reasons. This poses a problem more broadly for the Alliance as a whole, as the critical infrastructure in these countries – which will be used for military purposes in case of a NATO operation – is insufficiently protected.
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