The growing antagonism between the United States, the EU, its partners on the one side and Russia and China on the other limits the space for independent foreign policy, which for President Emmanuel Macron was to be a way of increasing the role of France in the world. In the event of his re-election, Macron will continue to call for the construction of the EU as a “superpower” so that the Community can contribute to the shaping of a new model of multilateralism and avoid a return to the Cold War logic of a clash between two blocs. The limit of Macron’s ambitions will, however, be to maintain the unity of the EU, France’s membership of NATO, and its alliance with the United States.
Russia’s war against Ukraine limited the availability of wheat and other food products and fertilisers from both countries in Africa. In the short term, the crisis pushed several countries to ban food exports and seek alternative sources of supply. In the long run, it will make increasing production for domestic needs the highest priority on the African continent. The Nigerian solutions can be a good example in this regard.
In visits to Ukraine and Russia, Chancellor Karl Nehammer emphasised the neutral status of Austria, which is engaged in dialogue with the warring sides. The Austrian government’s status explains its lack of arms supplies to Ukraine, while Austria’s high level of dependence on energy resources from Russia explains its reluctance to impose the EU embargo on them. This position may change if the embargo is backed by other EU countries that are also reluctant to impose it.
Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska / Language(s): English
Keywords: Le Pen; foreign policy; France; USA: NATO;
A Marine Le Pen victory in this month’s presidential election would bring a definite shift in French foreign policy. The vision of the National Rally (RN) candidate assumes revising European integration and the development of the European Union (EU) towards the idea of a Europe of nations and revision of EU treaties. Le Pen aims to reconstruct relations with the U.S. and NATO, limit cooperation with Germany, and seek closer ties with the UK and Russia. A Le Pen presidency could threaten European unity, undermine France’s allied credibility, and lead to its gradual isolation in the international arena.
Romania supported the European Union's independence from Russian energy resources. The cut-off from Russian supplies would not be particularly severe for the Romanian economy, which is highly self-sufficient thanks to gas extraction and nuclear energy. Therefore, by supporting the EU's climate policy, Romania was simultaneously part of a coalition of states that persuaded the EU to include nuclear energy in its energy taxonomy. Maintaining Romania's independence will depend on resolving problems with the development of the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant and the extraction of gasfrom the Black Sea fields.
Estonia shows an uncompromising attitude towards Russia after its aggression against Ukraine. Its rearming of the Ukrainian military is significant and is seen as a necessary element of NATO support. Estonia also supports the sanctions policy on Russia, including isolation of the country and withdrawal from imports of energy resources from it. Estonia underlines that the Alliance should strengthen its deterrence and defence capabilities towards Russia, and in particular increase the presence of allied troops on the Eastern Flank.
Moldova supports Ukraine and unofficially respects the Western sanctions against Russia. Provocations in April and May 2022 in the separatist Transnistria, declared in 1990 in eastern Moldova as a de facto Russian protectorate, have increased fears of an attack from that territory on the Odesa Oblast of Ukraine or Moldovan areas controlled by the constitutional authorities in Chişinău. This scenario remains unlikely before a Russian siege of Odesa. Poland and its allies from the EU may discourage Russia from intervening in Moldova by supporting the latter’s self-defence capabilities.
The development of Turkey’s defence industry makes it more convenient for the country to conduct independent military operations against PKK fighters in northern Iraq and Syria, and to achieve independence from foreign arms supplies. Turkey’s arms exports are a platform for strengthening political and economic relations. Moreover, it is a tool used by the ruling party to mobilise the conservative nationalist electorate. An improvement in Turkey’s relations with Italy and France could contribute to restoring talks on a partnership in the SAMP-T air defence missile system.
Prospects for Russia’s Exclusion from International Structures
Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; sanctions; international organizations; exclusion;
In response to the attack on Ukraine, most international organisations have condemned Russia’s actions. Suspension of the aggressor’s rights or expulsion has been less frequent because of how the organisations make decisions or the arrangement of political forces, among other reasons. Deprivation of membership also poses a risk of being interpreted by Russia as exemption from some international obligations. An alternative to the suspension of membership rights is to use other forms of limiting cooperation with an aggressor, which may be a solution that may be promoted by Poland.
The Course of Cooperation between Russia and its Latin American Partners
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; Latin America; partners; foreign policy;
For the past several years, Russia has been strengthening ties with the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and has developed cooperation with other Latin American countries as an investor in the energy sector, a supplier of weapons and Sputnik-V COVID-19 vaccine, and in other areas. Most Latin American governments have condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but they have not imposed sanctions on Russia. It is in the EU’s interest to persuade its Latin American partners of the validity of the restrictions and to work together to mitigate the negative economic effects of the war.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine has provoked a debate in Germany about the mistakes of the previous government’s eastern policy. Russia is perceived now by German public opinion as more of a threat than before. The government’s stance towards Russia is evolving, and the fastest shifts are being made in energy policy. Business circles are hitting the “brakes” on sanctions, while Germany’s limited scope of military aid for Ukraine stems from fears in the public that the war will spread to NATO countries and is justified by German pacifism.
Conference on the Future of Europe: Conclusions and Prospects for Implementation
Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English
Keywords: Europe; future; conference;
Pleas made through the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE) are in line with the European Commission’s (EC) vision of European Union development focused on the green transition and strengthening the Community’s economic potential and self-sufficiency. The conference proposals support closer integration, but the Member States and EU institutions differ in their views on the optimal ways for implementing citizens’ wishes. The European Parliament (EP) urges treaty change, while a dozen states from Northern, Central, and Eastern Europe do not consider it necessary.
Since the coup d'étatin May 2021, Mali’smilitary authorities have been making unfriendly gestures towards France and pushing for its troops to leave the country as soon as possible. The situation has been exacerbated by Russia, which is supporting the Malian junta through private military companies and inspiring actions that are harmful to France. The rise of anti-French and anti-Western sentiment in the region is hampering France’s efforts to involve its European partners in the operation. Instead of focusing on the fight against terror, France is falling into conflicts with countries in the region and yielding to Russian influence.
On 5 May, local elections were held in Scotland, Wales, and parts of England, as well as assembly elections in Northern Ireland. While the results in England, Scotland, and Wales confirmed the stability of the power systemin Britain, the first victory of the republican party and the lack of unionist support for the post-Brexit border solutions perpetuate the crisis in Northern Ireland. As a result, the risk of the UK unilaterally suspending the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland has increased in the absence of a breakthrough in the months-long talks between Boris Johnson’s government and the European Commission (EC).
EU Aid For Ukraine Reconstruction - Assumptions and Challenges
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; aid; Ukraine; EC; challenges;
On 18 May, the European Commission (EC) proposed a new financial instrument for the reconstruction of Ukraine and a mechanism for planning and coordinating international aid. The challenges will be to obtain sufficient funds and ensure an effective system for their use. Topping up the fund by confiscating Russia’s reserves frozen in the EU remains an open issue. Poland may encourage the EC to increase the role of local governments and organisations in aid implementation and promote the country’s experience in this field.
In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine and international sanctions, Russia is increasing the extraction and export of gold from friendly African countries. This will help it offset the cost of the sanctions. Despite the rising toll of the war, Russia does not intend to give up its activity in African countries or withdraw the Wagner Group’s mercenaries.
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014 broadened the political dimension of Israeli-Ukrainian relations. However, Israel’s cautious attitude towards Russia remains a burden for mutual relations with Ukraine. Since the renewed Russian aggression in February, Ukraine has diplomatically engaged Israel, but the limited nature of the latter’s support has led to criticism from Ukraine. The scale of the current assistance and pledged aid for the reconstruction of Ukraine, as well as Israel’s policy towards further tightening of sanctions against Russia, will be key to future relations.
President Emmanuel Macron’s party’s majority in the National Assembly (NA) is at stake in France’s upcoming parliamentary elections. In the background, however, is a growing conviction that the current electoral law does not reflect the real support for the political parties and that parliament does not have sufficient powers to control the government. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the left-wing coalition NUPES, proposes institutional reform and aspires to take the office of prime minister. The survival of the traditional parties on the political scene - the Republicans and the Socialist Party - is also at stake, especially in the context of the election alliances, particularly on the left.
Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
With negotiations likely to start later this year, a treaty supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is expected to make it possible to tackle the problem of plastic waste pollution, a transnational problem requiring international cooperation. The challenge will not be its adoption as much as its implementation, as it requires legislative action and investment by countries and business. However, it will benefit especially the environment, biodiversity, and human health. It is in Poland’s interest to negotiate flexible solutions and identify directions for national action.
Please note that there is a planned full infrastructure maintenance and database upgrade of the CEEOL repository.
The search is temporarily unavailable.
We apologize in advance for the inconvenience and thank you for your kind understanding.
There are validation problems in the fields. Please check the fields again and enter the correct data. (The fields with a red outline are required. The fields with correct data are with a green outline and "" symbol, fields with incorrect data are with a red outline and "" symbol. Pointing at the question mark "" placed at the end of fields displays additional information for the correct way of completing.)
