From 1 June, there is a new way of protecting inventions in the EU. The unitary patent is intended to support inventors and improve protection of their inventions. For now, the unitary patent is in force on the basis of enhanced cooperation between 17 EU states, but it is already causing controversy among them, as well as with business. Reservations about the cost-effectiveness of the solution means that applicants for protection still often choose national patents.
On 16-17 June, the governments of Ukraine and Russia hosted high-ranking representatives of seven African countries in Kyiv and Saint Petersburg, respectively, including the presidents of South Africa, Zambia, Senegal, and the Comoros. The declared objective of the mission was to facilitate the circulation of food and fertilisers in order to mitigate the effects of the food crisis in Africa. The participants of the delegation also presented a 10-point peace plan, mostly favourable to Ukraine. However, the initiative had no chance of success. With the Ukrainian side now engaged in a counter-offensive, it rejected calls for “de-escalation” and for the Russian side to return to internationally recognised borders.
In the new right-wing coalition government formed on 20 June, the centre-right, economically liberal National Coalition Party (Kokoomus) of Prime Minister Petteri Orpo plays a leading role. He succeeded Sanna Marin of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who headed the centre-left cabinet. The entry of the nationalist Finns Party (PS) into the government will not reduce Finland’s commitment to help Ukraine. Furthermore, the new government will increase its activity in NATO. This aligns with Poland’s security policy goals, also in the Baltic Sea region.
EU Advances Engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean
Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Latin America; Caribbean; strategy; foreign policy; social development; economic development;
In its strategy towards Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), announced on 7 June, the European Union mainly proposes cooperation in defending the rules-based international order, enhancing economic ties, and promoting sustainable social development. Itis part of the EU’s drive to renew its strategic partnership with LAC to compete more effectively with China’s growing regional presence, among other reasons. The Union is therefore intensifying contacts at the highest level and engagement through the Global Gateway infrastructure investment programme.
Russia has stepped up attempts to intimidate NATO with nuclear weapons, mainly by preparing for their deployment in Belarus. Russia wants to coerce the Alliance’s members into limiting their support for Ukraine. NATO countries should demonstrate more strongly that they will not be intimidated, also to reduce the risk that Russia, if faced with a collapse of its forces, will opt for a nuclear strike against Ukraine. In addition to renewing their warnings to Russia, the Alliance’s members should start discussing how to expand NATO’s nuclear capabilities in Europe.
Despite failing to win a vote of confidence in mid-June, Ludovit Ódor’s technical government will run the state until early general elections in September. Its main task is to stabilise the political situation after the previous dismissal of Eduard Heger’s government, whose policy it is continuing. Despite friendly gestures and interests converging with Poland, including in the field of Eastern and energy policy, cooperation will be limited due to the legal restrictions of the government, which has a transitional character.
The Kingdom’s Dilemmas: Saudi Arabia Seeks Relationships with Both Israel and Palestine
Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: Saudi Arabia; Israel; Palestine; foreign policy;
Saudi Arabia is trying to find a new formula for its relations with Israel and the Palestinians. Although Saudi-Israeli relations are close on an unofficial level, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially the position of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, is holding back official normalisation. While the Saudis will seek to deepen relations with both Israel and the Palestinian side, this will be a process conditioned by, among other things, developments in Saudi relations with the U.S. and Iran.
Author(s): Wojciech Wojtasiewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Georgia; European perspective; candidate status;
Later this year, in December, the European Council (Council) will decide whether to grant Georgia candidate status for membership in the European Union. Unlike Ukraine and Moldova, Georgia did not receive it in June for stalling reforms, democratic regression, and an ambiguous attitude towards Russian aggression against Ukraine. A positive decision even in the context of Georgia’s failure to meet EU recommended reforms could influence a renewal of the country’s pro-Western foreign policy direction. At the same time, it could bolster the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party ahead of the 2024 elections, making it easier for the party to defeat its opposition.
Developing Countries on the Brink of a Debt Crisis
Author(s): Piotr Dzierżanowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: debt crisis; developing countries; monetary policy; global economy;
The end of expansionary monetary policies in developed countries, the decline in financing from China, and the economic turbulence resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine increase the risk of a major international debt crisis for developing countries. Such crises tend to spill over and the number of defaulting countries increases. While the threat of the destabilisation of the economies of developed countries remains low, the states may be affected by the consequences of the crisis, such as increased migration pressures.
Coalition of Distrust: Breaking the Political Clinch in Bulgaria
Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Bulgaria; politics; political clinch; coalition;
On 6 June, the Bulgarian parliament approved the government and thus dismissed the prospect of another early election (which would have been the fifth in two years). The cabinet is formed by the centre-right Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party and a reluctant partner, the alliance of the centre-left We Continue the Change (PP) and the liberal Democratic Bulgaria (DB). The coalition is expected to govern for at least a year and a half, with a rotation of the prime minister after nine months. Its sustainability is favoured by the converging Euro-Atlantic orientation of its partners. It also offers opportunities for Bulgaria’s entry into the Schengen and euro areas, and for intensifying support to Ukraine.
China seeks to maintain differences within the EU, particularly regarding transatlantic cooperation towards China. Some EU countries and institutions do not perceive China as a threat and look cautiously at the reduction of economic ties with it. Others regard transatlantic cooperation, including vis-à-vis China, as an important element in strengthening European security. These differing approaches limit the ability of the EU and the U.S. to interact in areas related both to Sino-Russian cooperation and China’s escalation in the Indo-Pacific.
The EU’s Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas
Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Russia; gas; energy; policy;
The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.
The Hungarian government opposes the imposition of EU sanctions on the import of energy resources - especially gas - from Russia. The authorities explain this decision with Hungary’s high level of dependence on these resources and lack of alternative sources that are not more expensive. In fact, this stance is a consequence of Hungary’s long-standing policy towards Russia of closer political relations and energy cooperation since 2010, and the related lack of investment in the diversification of energy sources. Even if there is political will, which the authorities have not shown so far, it will be difficult for Hungary to free itself from Russian gas in the short term. The possibilities of giving up Russian oil are higher, but Hungary is unlikely to support an embargo on it this year.
The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. Big agricultural producers are advocating a revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition. Environmentalist organisations urge a speed up, as they emphasise the downsides of agriculture’s dependence on imported fertilisers, fuel, and feed. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.
Author(s): Aleksandra Kozioł / Language(s): English
Keywords: UK; space; strategy; policy;
The development of a comprehensive space strategy that encompasses civil and military aspects is in line with the British global strategy adopted last year. Its main goal is to strengthen the domestic space sector in the face of increasing competition on world markets and to make the United Kingdom one of the leaders in this field. The implementation of the strategy will be supported by increased funding, but without setting investment priorities and establishing closer cooperation with allies, including European countries, it will be difficult to achieve the objectives.
The Digital Services Act agreed in April between the Parliament, the Commission, and the Council of the EU is the first regulation in the world to set the rules for removing illegal online content, increasing the transparency of the functioning of websites, and improving the safety of network users. The implementation of the act in the European Union will be a challenge due to its wide scope, requiring increased involvement of the EU administration in the ongoing control of platforms. At the same time, the EU hopes that the act will become a model for similar laws in other parts of the world.
The EU considers the Chinese political support for the Russian aggression against Ukraine as the main obstacle to the development of cooperation with China. At the EU-China summit on 1 April, the EU warned of sanctions on China if it helped Russia wage war. However, the EU is focused more on implementing mechanisms to protect the common market against economic threats from China. The Chinese authorities are trying to normalise relations with the EU to limit its cooperation with the U.S. in the rivalry with China. To this end, the Chinese also aim to take advantage of the differences between EU members’ stances with regard to relations with China and the U.S.
The Relevance of BRICS after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English
Keywords: BRICS; Russia; Ukraine; invasion;
The upcoming 14th BRICS Summit, held during the Chinese presidency of the group, will be an opportunity for China to promote its vision of the international order and for Russia to show that it is not internationally isolated. The BRICS will not, however, become a counterweight to the West, mainly due to the disparity of potentials between China and the rest of the group and especially the tensions between it and India. Among other things, the EU and the U.S. should counteract BRICS members’ disinformation about the war in Ukraine and attempts to blame the global food crisis on the countries imposing sanctions on Russia.
Problems and Capability Gaps in Military Aid for Ukraine
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; war; military aid; problems;
International support for Ukraine has played an important role in preserving its independence, but is still not enough to stop the Russian offensive in Donbas. With the current high-intensity conflict, military supplies to Ukraine are not at the necessary level and not arriving on time. Many political, administrative, and technical issues are slowing down necessary military aid. Western partners might turn to much better, already available options to replace Ukraine’s damaged and lost heavy weapons, while also supporting the countries of Central Europe.
Although Romania is among the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank most fearful of Russian aggression, it pursues a policy of wait and see on the war in Ukraine. It supports the latter politically but has given only symbolic military aid. It is in Poland’s interest to persuade Romania to increase its support for Ukraine to help it fight off the Russian aggression, which could also contribute to a lasting increase in trust between Poland and Romania that in turn could foster post-war cooperation in the region.
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