On 5 February, the International Criminal Court (ICC) ruled that Palestine is a state within the meaning of its statute. As a consequence, the court has jurisdiction over Palestinian territory, comprised of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem. The decision allows ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda to investigate possible crimes committed within these territories on 3 March. The decision is a political success for the Palestinian Authority. Israel strongly opposes it and will conduct diplomatic activities against the ICC, attempting to involve its foreign partners in them.
ECB to the Rescue, Again: Ideas on Debt Relief in the Euro Area
Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English
Keywords: ECB; banking; pandemic; Euro area; COVID-19;
The pandemic has exacerbated the dispute over public debt in the euro area. The supporters of restructuring propose to redeem or extend the maturity of the bonds purchased by the European Central Bank (ECB) in recent years. Opponents of this idea point to legal problems and economic threats. This is another edition - after negotiations on the reconstruction fund - of the discussion on the future of the monetary union and the limits of financial solidarity between the Member States.
Since 2017, there has been an impasse in Romanian-Ukrainian relations caused by a bill limiting the language rights of national minorities in Ukraine, including Romanians. However, due to the fear of Russia’s aggressive policy in the Black Sea basin and despite negligible political contacts, the countries are developing defence and energy cooperation. Poland’s interest is in strengthening relations between Romania and Ukraine because it would have a positive impact on regional cooperation and the development of the Eastern Partnership.
Main Assumptions of the New U.S. Administration’s National Security and Foreign Policies
Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; security; national security; foreign policy;
On 3 March, the White House published the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG). It presents the main assumptions of administration policy ahead of the publication of the next U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS). The release of the INSSG was accompanied with a speech by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on foreign policy during Joe Biden’s presidency. The document and speech stress a clear departure from Donald Trump’s “America First” line, stressing protection of democratic values and signalling the most important strategic issues for U.S. allies, partners, and rivals.
“Great Green Wall” in Africa Closer to Implementation
Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English
Keywords: Africa; Great Green Wall; Implementation; environment; policy; migration; economy;
During an environment summit in Paris on 11 January, donors pledged $14.3 billion for the creation in Africa by 2030 of a “Great Green Wall”. This 8,000 km strip of vegetation is to extend from Senegal to Djibouti to prevent desertification of areas south of the Sahara. The programme also may stimulate employment and sustainable economic development in a region suffering from security crises and mass emigration.
Germany is the country most strongly involved in the transition of Ukraine’s energy sector. It is promoting its Energiewende concept in Ukraine, which involves a shift from coal and nuclear power to renewable energy sources (RES) in order to create a market for German companies in this sector. Germany may use its engagement in Ukraine in negotiations with the U.S. over lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2 (NS2). Poland, together with the U.S., can promote an alternative, cheaper model of energy transition in Ukraine based on the simultaneous development of nuclear energy, natural gas, and RES.
Late Start and a Slow Pace: Vaccinations Against COVID-19 in Ukraine
Author(s): Maria Piechowska,Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English
Keywords: COVID-19; Ukraine; vaccination; pace;
Ukraine’s problems with obtaining vaccines have made it one of the last countries in Central and Eastern Europe to start vaccinating its citizens. Delays in deliveries and logistical problems will make this process slower than in most European countries. As a result, Ukraine will have one of the lowest vaccination rates in Europe for a long time. This will force the Ukrainian authorities to maintain economic restrictions for longer than in other countries in the region, which may result in a decrease in support for President Volodymyr Zelensky and the ruling party in the coming months.
India is becoming a leader in so-called vaccine diplomacy in the world. The extensive distribution of vaccines as grants and commercially to other countries, combined with the reduction of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, will increase India’s prestige and influence. The possible build-up of its production capacity will be important to the success of the global vaccination campaign, including the implementation of the COVAX programme. This should lead the EU to strengthen cooperation with India in the fight against the pandemic and other global health threats, which will become an important area of their strategic partnership.
The Future of the Conflict in Yemen after the Change of U.S. Administration
Author(s): Sara Nowacka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Yemen; conflict; USA; predictions;
At the beginning of February, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. will end support for the coalition in Yemen led by Saudi Arabia and removed its foe, Ansar Allah, from the list of recognised Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTO). Attempts to persuade the Arab coalition to withdraw from Yemen, together with the promise of maintaining the partnership with Saudi Arabia in other respects, may contribute to the signing of an effective ceasefire in Yemen and strengthen the peace process.
Prospects for Turkey’s Policy Towards the South Caucasus
Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English
Keywords: Turkey; South Caucasus; foreign policy; prospects;
Turkey’s increased involvement in the South Caucasus strengthens its position vis-à-vis Russia and the EU, and increases the means of political pressure on Iran. It is also intended to help Turkey play the role of an economic bridge between Europe and Asia. To achieve these goals, Turkey uses military instruments and develops cooperation in the energy sector. Turkey has become a country without which stabilisation of the region is impossible, therefore the state of EU-Turkish relations will be one of the main factors determining the effectiveness of the EU’s policy in the Caucasus.
A lost presidency, the loss of the Senate majority, Trump’s attempts to challenge the election results, and his role in the Capitol riots on 6 January seem not to have dimmed the cooperation between the Republican Party and the former president. As a party, Republicans mostly rely on Trump and the pillars of his policy - “Trumpism”. Trump will strive to cement his position as the obvious candidate in the 2024 primaries, which may make Trumpism not a temporary phenomenon but one with a long-lasting impact on the Republican agenda, including in U.S. foreign and security policy.
No other neighbour is as closely connected to Austria as Germany. For years, bilateral relations have been based on deep economic connection and mutual understanding of interests. However, Austria under Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is more and more often and more decisively able to express a different opinion from Germany on important issues in European politics.
The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) constitutes the core of the Next Generation EU recovery fund. It is to provide a financial impulse for stimulating growth and at the same time become a catalyst for economic transformation. Should these objectives be achieved, it could pave the way for financing larger EU undertakings through common debt more often. Implementation of the instrument will, however, be complicated by divergences between Member States concerning the adequate balance between fiscal support of the economy and reforms oriented at reducing spending.
The announcement of the European Green Deal (EGD) by the head of the European Commission (EC), Ursula von der Leyen, came just before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the global crisis not only affected the Commission’s plans but gave additional impetus to the European climate transformation. In 2021, the EC is expected to move from strategic thinking on the EGD to ambitious action. Success will depend on the Commission’s capacity to reconcile the interests of all Member States, including those for whom the implementation of the EGD constitutes a challenge in the short term.
Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Russia; internet; future; sovereignty;
So-called “sovereign internets”, which are networks cut off from the global internet, is attractive to authoritarian regimes such as Russia, China, and Iran. Russia declares that it has achieved the technical capacity to implement it, which would allow the Russian authorities more control over society but could cause problems for business. The Russian authorities therefore will limit its use to a preventive measure at key moments and for blocking foreign networks and communicators inside Russia to try to control public moods in the country.
Keywords: EU; digital decade; economy; digitization; economic policy;
The “2030 Digital Compass” sets the goals of the broadly understood digitisation of the EU economy. Their implementation is to increase the technological potential of the Union and prepare citizens and companies for socio-economic changes. Financial resources for it will come from the long-term budget negotiated last year and from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The challenge will be effective use of the EU funds and achieving planned goals across the Union.
The Phantom of the Opposition: The German Christian Democrats before the Federal Elections
Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English
Keywords: Germany; Christian democrats; politics; federal elections; opposition;
The defeat of the CDU in the elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate and the party’s decline in ratings at the federal level indicate that the Christian Democrats may lose in the upcoming Bundestag elections, possibly even with the worst result in its history. The weakening of the party strengthens the Greens as a potential coalition partner in the new federal government and increases the chances of a cabinet without the CDU/CSU.
Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English
Keywords: USA; Belarus; relations; foreign policy; human rights;
The development of U.S.-Belarus relations has been hampered by the events following the Belarusian presidential election in August 2020. In response to the Lukashenka regime’s violation of human rights, the U.S. extended a set of sanctions against the country and will most likely reinstate suspended economic restrictions. At the same time, the Biden administration will expand support for civil society, which creates a point of cooperation with Poland and the EU to coordinate aid activities and build international support for democratic changes in Belarus.
The EU’s New Agenda for the Mediterranean: Towards a Digital and Green Economy
Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU; Mediterranean; Digital economy; Green Economy;
The revision of EU policy towards its southern neighbourhood focuses on supporting green and digital transformations in order to boost the economic development of this region. However, the proposed solutions may bring limited results due to structural problems and the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. To increase the effectiveness of this policy, the EU can strengthen local actors. Poland can promote the good practices of the Eastern Partnership in this regard.
Since the Federal Constitutional Court suspended the ratification of the decision to increase the EU’s own resources, the launch of the reconstruction fund could be delayed. Facing the risk of prolonging the pandemic-induced economic crisis, Germany and the EU must consider additional scenarios, from changing the German constitution, financing expenses from national bonds, or even transferring the recovery programme to the intergovernmental level.
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