Re-Writing the US-EU Relationship

Re-Writing the US-EU Relationship

Author(s): Daniel Korski,Ulrike Guerot,Mark Leonard / Language(s): English

In 2005, as the dust settled on one of the most fractious periods in transatlantic relations, the then German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder called for a debate about new transatlantic institutions in a speech at the Munich Security Conference. He argued that NATO could no longer be the central institution in a relationship that spanned everything from climate change and genetically modified (GM) foods to joint actions in Afghanistan and the Balkans. The thrust of his message was undeniably correct, but the timing was not ideal. Just two years after the invasion of Iraq, Europeans and Americans were willing to work together again at an operational level, but political divisions were still raw. And there were still great differences, at the level of analysis and solutions, on some of the biggest global issues, such as international terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, climate change, and the International Criminal Court.

The controversial US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and its international consequences

The controversial US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and its international consequences

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Iran; JCPOA; Donald Trump; Israel; US Threats; nuclear weapons;

On May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump went through with his threat and, this time, has not submitted his certification of the implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement to the US Congress for approval. According to Trump, the document is the “worst deal” of Obama Democratic administration. He made his negative decision despite Iranʼs positive performance in the inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Two important summits of President Trump and nuclear disarmament expectations

Two important summits of President Trump and nuclear disarmament expectations

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Donald Trump; Security policy; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Russia; Nuclear arms; Kim Jong-un; denuclearization; Vladimir Putin; American-Soviet treaty INF;

Somewhat surprisingly, in a relatively short time interval, approximately over the course of one month in the middle of this year, two important meetings of the American President Donald Trump were held with the highest representatives of two countries which pose long-term security problems to the USA: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (hereinafter the DPRK) and the Russian Federation (hereinafter the RF). The meeting with the North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was held on June 12, 2018 in Singapore, and that with the Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 16, 2018 in Helsinki.

Is There a Threat of a Repeated Deployment of Nuclear “Eurorockets” From the Cold War Period in Europe?

Is There a Threat of a Repeated Deployment of Nuclear “Eurorockets” From the Cold War Period in Europe?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Cold War history; INF Treaty; security; USA; Russia;

Will the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the American-Soviet INF Treaty of 1987 become a possible reality? The Treaty prohibits ground-launched shorter and the middle-range missiles (500–5,500 kms) with nuclear or conventional warheads. The Treaty´s security significance and its main parameters, the legal framework of the withdrawal and the reasons of both parties for accusing each other of violating the Treaty, are discussed in the article as well. In its conclusion the article, among other things, explains the context of the possible termination of the Treaty, and its consequences for the U.S.-Russia arms-control architecture.

Free Willy! Japan Resumes Commercial Whale Hunting

Free Willy! Japan Resumes Commercial Whale Hunting

Author(s): Veronika Bílková / Language(s): English

Keywords: Commercial Whale Hunting; Japan; protection of whales; international law;

In late 2018, Japan announced that it would withdraw from the International Convention on the Regulation of Whaling and leave the International Whaling Commission. It did so due to its disapproval of the ban on commercial whaling, which has been in force for the Parties of the Convention since 1986, and to its decision to resume whale hunt since the summer of 2019. This reflection first gives an overview of the evolution and the structure of the international legal regime related to whaling and of the history of Japan’s relationship with this regime. It then shows that the Japan’s attempt to justify the resumption of commercial whaling by the principle of sustainable use of living marine resources cannot be successful for both practical and normative reasons.

The Regional Format 16+1: Early Rusting, Still Alive and Expanding Into 17+1

The Regional Format 16+1: Early Rusting, Still Alive and Expanding Into 17+1

Author(s): Rudolf Fürst / Language(s): English

Keywords: 16+1 format; 17+1; EU-China competitive tension; USA; CEE;

The sub-regional multilateral format of China and 16 post-communist states (16+1) proved that it could last seven years and that it has the potential to absorb new members. Consequently, the European Union is increasingly concerned about its potentially divisive effects on the EU’s unity. The expected economic benefits of 16+1 for the European partners have been scarcely relevant; still, the European states exploit the 16+1 format for strengthening their bilateral agendas with China. Amidst the trade war with China, the US regards China’s rising influence in Central Europe as a political issue. Beijing’s priority in Europe is to calm down the tension with the EU, Germany, and France over the 16+1 platform. However, the accession of Greece to the enlarged format of 17+1 in the recent 16+1 summit in Dubrovnik and the gaining of support for the Belt and Road Initiative in Italy enable China to establish its foothold on the European South’s doorstep in connection with the 17+1 regional platform.

The Syrian Safe Zone and International Law

The Syrian Safe Zone and International Law

Author(s): Bríd Ní Ghráinne / Language(s): English

Keywords: International law; Safe-zone; Turkey; Syria; returning refugees;

On Wednesday 9 October 2019, Turkey launched a cross-border operation in Northern Syria. Turkey justified its actions as a response to an ‘imminent terrorist threat’ from Kurdish-led forces. Its operation was directed at pushing back these groups from its border and creating a ‘safe zone’ in Syria where up to two million Syrian refugees can be resettled. This reflection aims to assess (i) whether the Turkish operation to establish the safe zone was lawful; and (ii) whether the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the safe zone is in conformity with international law.

Common Fears, Common Opportunities? Czechia and Norway in the Changing International Context

Common Fears, Common Opportunities? Czechia and Norway in the Changing International Context

Author(s): Kristin Haugevik,Benjamin Tallis,MORTEN S. ANDERSEN,Mark Galeotti,Jakub Godzimirski,Jan Mazač,ØYVIND SVENDSEN,Elena ZHIRUKHINA / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czechia; Norway; disorder; institutional fear; security; NATO; energy security;

“Every change of scene requires new expositions, descriptions, explanations,” Milan Kundera once observed. With long-dominant structures in flux, European states – and perhaps smaller ones in particular – are now forced to rethink their foreign policy approaches and practices. While the changing international context has generally created anxiety and uncertainty, fear can also have productive effects. It can create opportunities – and incentives – for re-assessing as well as for diversifying and intensifying support networks and reaching out to new partners.

Better Protection of the Rule of Law – Or of European Taxpayers’ Money

Better Protection of the Rule of Law – Or of European Taxpayers’ Money

Author(s): Tamás Lattmann / Language(s): English

Keywords: Rule of law; EU law; member states’ taxpayers’ money; Treaty on the Euro-pean Union (TEU);

The European Parliament has made a first decision about a new regulation, aiming for better protecting the rule of law in member states, by possibly employing financial sanctions in case of short-comings. This reflection explains the difference between the pro-posed procedure and already existing mechanisms, sheds light on the background of the new legislation and addresses some of the questions it may raise related to EU law, member state sovereignty and its possible effects.

Will outer space be weaponized?

Will outer space be weaponized?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: use of space; Earth’s orbit; weaponization of outer space; Missle Defense Review; International law;

This essay discusses the main elements of the American security document called the Missile Defense Review 2019, which was presented by the US Ministry of Defense in January 2019. It covers the possible reasons for the postponed publication of the document and informs about the main legal documents dealing with the peaceful use of space. It compares the current document with the similar one from 2010, which was published by the Obama administration. It also focuses on the possibility of the deployment of US space-based interceptors in the Earth’s orbit. In this context it analyses the possible negative consequences of such a development, especially that it could lead to the beginning of a phase of a high risk weaponizations of outer space and the start of an arms race in that domain.

Will the validity of the last US-Russia arms-control treaty, the new start treaty, be extended?

Will the validity of the last US-Russia arms-control treaty, the new start treaty, be extended?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: US-Russia arms-control treaty; START Treaty; US missile defense;

The official title of the New START Treaty is the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. The ten-year validity of the Treaty with expire on February 5, 2021, though there is the possibility of its extension for a further five years. The key question is whether both participating countries will agree with the mentioned extension. If not, more than 90% of the nuclear weapons in their possession (out of the total number of ca. 13,900 weapons) will not be subject to any arms-control limitation for the first time since 1972.

The conference on the establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

The conference on the establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction; security crisis;

The historically first session of the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction was held on 18–22 November 2019 at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, pursuant to General Assembly decision 73/546. Twenty three Middle Eastern states, four observer states (Chína, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom), three relevant international organizations (the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the Biological Weapons Convention Implementation Support Unit) and some other international organzations e.g. the LAS, the OIC and the EU, participated in the session, which was presided over by Jordanian Ambassador Sima Bahous. At the open sessions, non-governmental organizations took part as well. The United States and Israel declined the invitation to take part. In the conclusion of the conference, the participating states consensually approved the seven-point Political Declaration, which has a general and proclamatory character, and is an appendix to the Final Report (A/CONF.236/6).

Can the Possible Non-extension of the New START Treaty Influence the Strategic Stability in the Use of the Outer Space Domain?

Can the Possible Non-extension of the New START Treaty Influence the Strategic Stability in the Use of the Outer Space Domain?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: New START Treaty; The Outer Space Treaty; security situation; US-Russia security relations;

If Trump’s administration refuses the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to extend the validity of the last US-Russian arms-control treaty – the New START Treaty – it could have many negative consequences. A lot of arms-control experts, including the former US and Russian Ministers of Foreign Affairs Madeleine Albright and Igor Ivanov, as mentioned in their February declaration, stressed their support of the Treaty’s extension. The New START Treaty, which restricts the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons, will expire in February 2021 but its wording enables its extension for five years more. Concerns related to the negative consequences of non-extension of the Treaty include, among others, that there could be a suppression of the strategic stability in the use of the space domain as a result of the end of the Treaty’s complex and intrusive verification system. The potential demise of the Treaty would have various negative impacts; besides the end of notifications, the exchange of telemetric and information data, on-site inspections etc., in connection with this the Treaty’s non-extension would especially have an effect on the binding principle of mutual non-interference with the national technical means (NTMs) of verification of the other party.

Biden's Administration and Its Security Policy as Regards Nuclear Weapons

Biden's Administration and Its Security Policy as Regards Nuclear Weapons

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Joseph Biden; security policy; nuclear weapons; New START Treaty; Open Skies Treaty;

The reflection deals with possibilities of finding at solution to the main nuclear arms control and nonproliferation issues in the wider international context from the point of view of President Joe Biden's Democratic administration's declared new approach as regards security policy. The closing part pays attention to some matters which could complicate and/or halt the implementation of the planned steps. There is a certain hope that the new administration will assume a more cooperative stance as regards the reduction and elimination of nuclear weapons and other security matters. The process of the extension of the ten-year validity of the last arms control treaty, the US-Russia New START Treaty, for five more years has been launched successfully. The international community also expects, besides the continuation of the US-Russia arms control talks, the renewal of the US participation in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) and the continuation of the dialog on denuclearization with the DPRK. The Biden administration's position as regards the historically important the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which entered into force at the beginning of this year, will be in the centre of attention due to the US intention to renew its leading position in the arms control and nonproliferation process. The supporters of the international measures to strengthen the trust and security within the Euro-Atlantic space would particularly welcome the renewal of the USA's membership in the international Open Skies Treaty (OST).

The Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Waiting

The Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Waiting

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Security policy; USA; Russia; Nuclear arms control; Jo Biden; North Korean nuclear and missile program; Iranian nuclear program;

The reflection deals with the current state of the nuclear arms control and disarmament process with a stressing on the role of the Biden administrationʼs security policy. The policy follows the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) of March 2021 till the summaries of the new relevant security documents, i.e. the National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), will be published early next year. The reflection deals also with the US-Russia strategic dialogue, the current development in the effort to reach the Korean Peninsulaʼs denuclearization and the restoration of the US participation in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA). The final part of the reflection pays attention to some of the main factors of the USʼs internal and international policy that could influence the implementation of the declared intentions of the above mentioned security documents.

Can Anonymous Be Prosecuted? A Reflection Under International Law in the Framework of the Current Armed Conflict in Ukraine

Can Anonymous Be Prosecuted? A Reflection Under International Law in the Framework of the Current Armed Conflict in Ukraine

Author(s): Federica Cristani / Language(s): English

Keywords: International law; Armed conflict in Ukraine; Cyber-criminal law; Anonymous;

This reflection offers a concise analysis under national and international law of the cyber-operations carried out by Anonymous in the context of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. It is highlighted that each one of the individuals acting as Anonymous is subject to the relevant national (cyber-criminal) law jurisdictions. Moreover, in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, they can be subject to the law of armed conflict. If their cyber-conduct amounts to “direct participation in hostilities”, they can even become targetable according to international humanitarian law. Also, when Anonymous directly participates in hostilities from a state that is not party to the armed conflict, the neutrality of non-belligerent countries can be challenged.

The present development in the nuclear arms control

The present development in the nuclear arms control

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: nuclear arms control; security crisis; States-Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW); USA; Russia; Ukraine; New START;

The reflection highlights the need to increase the international nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control efforts, particularly in the wake of the security crisis development triggered by the war in Ukraine and Russian threats to use nuclear weapons. In this context, it examines the courses and results of two important conferences dealing with nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, that were organized this year. These conferences were the first Meeting of the States-Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna in June and the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which took place in August at the UN Headquarters in New York. The conclusions contain some expected courses of action to reduce the risk of a nuclear war and a nuclear arms race.

International law with Chinese characteristics. The South China Sea Territorial Dispute

International law with Chinese characteristics. The South China Sea Territorial Dispute

Author(s): Sardor ALLAYAROV / Language(s): English

Keywords: South China Sea Territorial Dispute; International law; China; Geopolitics;

China actively participated in the drafting of the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and ratified it in 1996. The domestic legal system of China also contains a set of laws such as the Law on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone (1992), and the Law on the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the Continental Shelf (1998).

The crucial and fateful nuclear-arms dilemma

The crucial and fateful nuclear-arms dilemma

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nuclear arms dilemma; AI and nuclear weapons; USA; Russia; Chinese nuclear capacity;

Nuclear weapons are an existential threat to humanity, as are the increasingly intense manifestation of climate change. The Reflection describes more broadly the main risk factors of this threat, including artificial intelligence (AI). In this context, it highlights the impasse which the US-Russian arms control process and strategic dialogue have reached as a result of their strained relations and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It also analyses the expected developments in the nuclear weapon field, taking into account the US Pentagon’s warning about the possible growth of China’s nuclear arsenal. In particular, it concludes by noting the main dilemmas for further development in this area: either the initiation of arms control and risk reduction negotiations by the major nuclear powers or the growing spiral of a costly and security-risk-laden nuclear arms race. The possibility of an ethical and moral commitment by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the so-called P5 (the US, Russia, China, France and the UK), to “responsible nuclear behaviour“, which is promoted by the US administration, appears as a temporary solution to this security crisis.

World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mitchell Belfer,Mats Braun,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Nik Hynek,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Lucia Najšlová,Vít Střítecký,Tomáš Weiss / Language(s): English

Keywords: Fiscal policy; Germany; Central Europe; EU; Turkey; Cyprus; China; USA; Iran; Bahrain; Afghanistan; Asia-Pacific Area; Russia; Presidential elections; Geopolitics;

Scenario building was first introduced in the U.S. security community in the 1950s. In RAND projects, “scenarios” (with the term consciously borrowed from the Holywood film industry to emphasize their storytelling character) evolved into a sophisticated auxiliary means of political decision-making. The method was thus born from the spirit of the Cold War, yet soon it found its way into the private sector, where it has served to manage corporate risk. More recently, scenarios witnessed a rise in popularity also in the think tank community as outcomes relevant for policy makers due to their potential to bridge theoretical knowledge with the needs of political practice (early warning potential) and as a means of broadening and deepening the space for public debate about global politics.