A Fragile Vote for Europe - Pro-EU Coalition Wins Majority in Polarized Moldovan Elections
Author(s): Michal Šimečka / Language(s): English
Keywords: Moldova; election; EU; integration;
Moldova stays on course toward closer EU integration after Sunday's general election delivered a narrow parliamentary majority for the ruling coalition. In a poll framed as a choice between Europe and Russia, the three pro-EU parties - the centrist Liberal Democrats, left-leaning Democrats, and centre-right Liberals - captured 46 percent of the popular vote, and 55 seats in the 101-member Parliament. But as they prepare to form a new government, electoral momentum also rests with pro-Russian forces. The Kremlin-backed Socialist party, calling for Moldova to renege on the EU Association Agreement to join the Russian-led Customs Union, surged from obscurity to win the largest share of the popular vote with almost 21 percent. The slightly more moderate Communist party finished third with 17 percent. The upshot is a polarised political environment that will require a nuanced and inclusive approach by the new government and the EU.
All in the Same Boat - Visegrad Four Can Do More to Defend Free Movement in the EU
Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English
Keywords: Visegrad four; EU; free movement policy; foreign policy;
Central European states, notably Czech Republic and Poland, have been vocal defenders of the Schengen-zone and the free-movement it provides. The strong, public response in both countries to the UK’s recently proposed clampdown on free movement is a welcome continuation of this tradition that can help to mitigate the threat to a key EU principle. However, the Schengen zone, which is the most important manifestation of the EU’s commitment to free movement, is also under threat in other ways. Schengen countries, including the Visegrad Four (V4), need to do more to share the uneven burdens that come from participating in the Area of Freedom Justice and Security (AFSJ). Failure to create an effective common asylum policy and to adequately support the countries bearing the brunt of migratory flows risks the dismantling of a key European achievement and the end of one of the EU’s most popular policies. The V4 can, and should, do more to defend free movement, by sharing more of these burdens than they do currently.
Two weeks after Syriza's ascent to power, fears of another Eurozone debt spiral are echoed by concerns over implications for European security. Syriza's ties to Kremlin operatives and ideologues and the government's opposition to sanctions, have led Athens to be cast (ironically enough) as Vladimir Putin's Trojan horse in Europe. It did not help that Syriza chose the ‘Independent Greeks’ an overtly pro-Russian far-right grouping as its coalition partner. However, given the country's economic dislocation and urgent need for debt restructuring, Greece's Eurozone creditors will hold greater sway than Mr Putin over its security posture.
From Vicious to Virtuous: Transforming the Ukraine Crisis - The EU can create a lasting peace by sticking to its (lack of) guns
Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; war; EU; policy; peace;
Given the rising death toll in Eastern Ukraine, reports of a ceasefire deal in Minsk are a very welcome development. However, rather than merely halting the war, the EU, Ukraine and Russia need to create a lasting peace. Calls for the West to arm Ukraine – a misguided attempt to level the killing field – has overshadowed previous proposals from EU leaders to create a free trade area with Russia in the long-term. However, this is the approach that offers the greatest hope for a long-term solution that can transform the conflict, EU-Russia relations and even Russia itself. It would benefit all concerned – apart from the Putin regime – but it faces many obstacles, not least within the EU itself. The EU needs to assuage the concerns that some of its member states have about engaging with Russia and with the Putin regime. If this can be done, the EU can also begin to establish a foreign policy that adheres to its values and perhaps even begin to address its own internal crisis of confidence.
Gesture Politics and the Symbolism of Compulsory Military Conscription - The Lithuanian Government sends signals to Russia and to its own public
Author(s): Markéta Wittichová / Language(s): English
Keywords: gesture politics; compulsory military conscription; Lithuania; government; Russia;
Since the end of the Cold War it has been a general trend in Europe to phase out mandatory military conscription. Only thirteen European countries – including some NATO members – nowadays still retain compulsory national service. If agreed by the parliament, Lithuania, which ended mandatory army service in 2008, will soon reinstate army conscription and join the ‘European thirteen’. Starting this September, for a period of five years, 3 500 men ages 19 to 27 should be enlisted yearly to Lithuanian national service. The Lithuanian president and senior military personnel claim that this move stems from the need to counter Russia's aggressive posture in the Baltic region. While portrayed by the Lithuanian authorities as a matter of national security, re-introducing conscription can also be interpreted as a symbolic gesture directed at Lithuanian as well as Russian audiences.
Ukrainian Mobility: An Opportunity Not a Threat to the EU
Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English
Keywords: Ukraine; mobility; EU; threat;
On April 01, it was reported that a group of MEPs, spanning the spectrum of political groupings in the European Parliament, had written to Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, recommending that the EU grant visa-free travel to Ukrainians. It can be hoped that this was not an April fool, as the proposal has the potential to transform the EUUkraine mobility regime from lose-lose to win-win. Visa liberalisation is one of the few concrete measures that the EU can take, which would be unambiguously positive for EU-Ukraine relations. Travelling more freely will help Ukrainians enact a key aspect of European belonging, allow them to see EU life for themselves and bring back and adapt the aspects that they like, without increasing risk or threat to the EU. Fears over increased threats from enhanced mobility are ill-founded and the EU should launch this policy at the forthcoming Eastern Partnership summit in Riga.
Keywords: UK; military policy; security; nuclear deterrent;
After lacklustre openings to the campaigns of the main parties, the British general election came to life last week with an ad hominem attack by Defence Secretary Michael Fallon on Labour leader Ed Miliband whom he claimed could not be trusted to renew Trident, the UK’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent. Fallon’s attack - that Miliband’s desperation for power would lead him to “stab Britain in the back” by forming a coalition with the anti-Trident Scottish National Party (SNP) - was widely condemned for its crassness, but it raised real issues that the next British government will need to address. These issues range from the cost and utility of replacing Trident to the morality of maintaining a nuclear deterrent in light of calls for disarmament, the effect of unilateral disarmament in an increasingly complex, multipolar world, and the efficacy of nuclear weapons in dealing with asymmetric threats. The nuclear issue is politically divisive in the UK, with different parties taking different views. However the parties – and the electorate – must also contend with the deeper questions they raise regarding the role that Britain wants to play in the world.
Libyan Civil War: Enabling Illicit Migration Flows, Threatening Libya’s Neighbors - Only by supporting a long-term political solution to the Libyan conflict can the EU address the migration crisis
It is no coincidence that the three boats that capsized in the Mediterranean in April 2015 causing deaths of hundreds of migrants all set sail from Libya. It is estimated that most of more than 36 000 people who tried to cross to Europe in 2015 embarked in Libya and used various routes across the central Mediterranean sea to Italy. Since the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 Libya has suffered from growing instability, factionalism and, since July 2014, increasingly chaotic civil war. The recent conflict has pitted two loose alliances against each other: the first is the internationally recognized government based in Tobruk in the east of the country and backed by the Libyan Army and various militias; the second is the rival administration formed by pro-Islamist forces in the capital Tripoli, which relies on a diverse coalition of armed groups. The situation is further complicated by the presence of various local armed factions and militant jihadists allied either to Islamic State, or Ansar al-Sharia. The failed post-Gaddafi transition and ensuing civil war have crippled state institutions and fragmented political authority. Combined with porous borders, this situation has allowed flourishing people smuggling networks to operate with impunity and created problems for Libya’s neighbours.
Offshoring Security: Protecting Migrants and the Schengen Zone - Externalising asylum processing accompanied by enhanced search and rescue efforts and border protection would benefit all concerned.
Author(s): Markéta Wittichová,Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English
On April 15 and April 20 crowded migrant boats heading from Libya to Europe sank in the Mediterranean resulting in the deaths of more than 1000 migrants. The death toll this year is now more than 1500, which according to the International Organization for Migration is “roughly 30 times higher than the equivalent figure from 2014, which was itself a record”. In the face of this humanitarian crisis, European leaders agreed on measures to be taken in order to deal with the influx of migrants crossing the Mediterranean. However, it has been claimed that these measures do not go far enough and there have been calls for the establishment of offshore processing centres to allow migrants to lodge asylum application without having to make the dangerous journey to EU member states by sea. Offshoring aspects of migration control could simultaneously protect both migrants and the integrity of the Schengen zone’s borders. However, it would need to be combined with longer-term actions to address the causes of the crisis, and carefully managed to ensure that the EU and Member states live up to their stated values and legal commitments – something that offshoring strategies elsewhere have failed to achieve.
EU Response to the Migration Crisis: Too Little, But Not Too Late - As it faces mounting criticism over its lacklustre response to the migration emergency in the Mediterranean, the EU needs a plan to address causes as well as symptoms of the crisis
Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English
Keywords: migration; crisis; Mediterranean; EU;
The causes of the migration crisis in the Mediterranean are multiple and complex. Rather than just attempting to alleviate its symptoms, the EU must address them to protect migrants, safeguard the Schengen zone and act as a force for good in the world. Large flows of refugees and economic migrants who are unable to enter the EU through regular routes seek the help of people smugglers to enter the EU. Smugglers have been able to operate with impunity in the wake of Libyan state collapse and operate dangerous routes and dangerous practices of travel. Incoherent EU policies on Schengen solidarity and refugee resettlement have lead to a muddled and ineffective response, which is informed by xenophobic discourse and is an insult to the EU’s history and values. Failure to establish offshore asylum-processing and inadequate Search and Rescue (SAR) efforts have compounded the situation. After a disappointing first response, the EU needs to formulate short, medium and long term plans to address the causes of the crisis.
Responding to Sousse: Tunisia Needs Sustainable Economic Development Not a Security Crackdown - It is time for the EU to support initiatives tackling the economic stagnation, unreformed security system and marginalization of peripheries that feed rad
While Tunisia was widely praised for the progress it has made since the 2011 revolution, two recent terrorist attacks have reminded the world of the challenges that the country faces. Both the attack in the Bardo museum on 18 March 2015 and the shooting in Sousse on 26 June 2015 were committed by young Tunisians with links to Libyan jihadist groups and targeted mainly foreign tourists. The Tunisian government, led by the secularist party Nidaa Tounes, has responded by cracking down on radical Islamist networks and adopting a new counter-terrorism law that has been criticised by human rights groups as granting too many unchecked powers to the authorities. The nascent Tunisian democracy thus has to navigate an increasingly difficult road marked by internal challenges in the form of economic and demographic pressures, militant Islamist opposition and stalling reforms. Instability in the whole North Africa and the Sahel only exacerbate internal issues. It will be very difficult for the Tunisian government to overcome all these challenges alone and it is time for the EU to help preserve the stability of the country.
NATO's Eastern Promises? - Demands for permanent deployment of NATO troops on the Alliance’s Eastern Flank risk divisions at a time when political unity is at a premium
Ahead of the June 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw, Poland and other new Member States are stepping up calls for the Alliance to expand its presence on their territories. The military logic is straight-forward: permanently stationed NATO troops would dispel any doubts about the credibility of NATO's Article 5, and decrease the likelihood of Russia's provocation or outright aggression. However, in the absence of a broad political agreement on such a sensitive move in the Alliance, the initiative could prove self-defeating, driving a wedge between Western and Eastern member states and undercutting NATO's fragile consensus on Russia.
European Re-Engagement in UN Peacekeeping? - The small and medium European states need to face the unexpected challenges to be effectively involved in UN peacekeeping missions
Author(s): Jan Daniel,Markéta Wittichová / Language(s): English
Keywords: UN; Europe; peacekeeping; challenges;
The pledges made by many European nations at the World Leaders' Summit on Peacekeeping in September 2015 and large number of European troops in United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) both mark an important trend – the return of the European NATO armies to UN peacekeeping. With a few exceptions (UNIFIL in Lebanon and smaller units in Cyprus and the Golan Heights) European troops have been largely absent from UN operations since the termination of the missions in the former Yugoslavia. The recent withdrawal from Afghanistan and developments in European southern neighborhood have again made UN missions an attractive option for European nations both for security and capacity reasons. The European nations have decided to strengthen their presence in the Sahel region, through EU missions (particularly training and assistance missions) but also by responding to UN calls for greater contributions. This trend has culminated in the significant contributions of small and medium sized European armies to MINUSMA, which represents an important learning process for both the UN and European nations as well as paving the way for future operations.
Fortress Britain vs. Liberal Britain: Responding Effectively to Terrorism - With troops on the streets after the Manchester attack, liberal Britain is threatened by harsh (and ineffective) responses to terror
Author(s): Benjamin Tallis / Language(s): English
Keywords: Fortress Britain; Liberal Britain; terrorism; response;
The attack on concert-goers and their families in Manchester has provoked heartfelt outpourings of grief and sympathy as well as widespread and vehement condemnation. Politicians and citizens alike have pledged not to let this affect the cohesion of the diverse Mancunian community or to let it change liberal ways of British life.
Zapad 2017: How should the West respond? - Russia’s next wargames do not mean war is coming
Author(s): Nicolò Fasola / Language(s): English
Keywords: West; East; foreign policy; international relations; security; war;
Russia has always conducted military drills more numerous and larger in scale than NATO’s. Zapad (“West” in Russian) is the exercise sequence that generates most concerns for NATO, not only because of its proximity but also because of memories linked with the huge 1981 iteration, the largest exercises the USSR had ever held, which showcased in all its might the power of its new operational manoeuvre groups. Zapad 2017 will be held in September and is perceived as a potential threat to the security of the region, especially by the Baltic Republics, not least because both the invasion of Georgia and that of Ukraine were preceded by major military exercises. Is the threat credible, and is the fear of an opportunistically expansionist Russia justified in this context?
G5 Sahel Joint Force: European Strategy Should Go Beyond Counter-terrorism - Mali and the wider Sahel region should be provided with more support, but is the new counter-terrorist force what is needed?
Author(s): Jan Daniel / Language(s): English
Keywords: Sahel; G5; Europe; support; military;
On the 2 July 2017 the leaders of five Sahelian nations, joined the French president Macron, officially inaugurated a new regional military operation. The latest initiative is supposed to bring stability to the region struggling with the aftermath of the collapse of Malian state in 2012. The 5000 troops of the G5 Sahel joint force (JF-G5S) are to be composed primarily from the nations of the G5 Sahel bloc (Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger) supported with funds, training and equipment provided by the EU, France and potentially other Western states. The force will be tasked with enhancing government control of the border areas in Sahel, strengthening the authority of the respective states and facilitating humanitarian and development operations. The first deployment (of a planned three) is expected to take place in the triborder region of central Mali, western Niger and eastern Burkina Faso, where Jihadist and criminal armed groups recently stepped up their activities. The creation of the new counter-terrorist operation provides an opportunity to curb the activity of non-state actors in the sensitive border regions, yet it needs international support and wider perspective on the roots of the local conflicts to ensure sustainable stabilization.
The Disappearance of the Battlefield in the War on Terror - The Global War on Terror’s policy of targeted killing is transforming the character of war and undercutting the means to regulate it.
Author(s): Antoine Bousquet / Language(s): English
Keywords: war; terror; battlefield;
The classical image of the battlefield evokes a bounded physical space in which massed armies clash for a day in search of a decisive resolution. Such battles feature prominently throughout recorded history and continue to inform contemporary conceptions of the battlefield. Yet this traditional image of the battlefield was already a fading reality in the twentieth century. Over the course of two world wars, the zones of offensive operations expanded across continents and civilian populations became targets of intense aerial bombardment under the doctrine of total war. The Cold War took place against the ever-present backdrop of a possible nuclear conflagration of apocalyptic proportions, with the antagonism between the superpowers consequently displaced into a persistent state of worldwide struggle, ranging from proxy wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan to competition in the space race and the arts. The bounded, unitary battlefield is, however, facing perhaps its greatest challenge today in the context of the on-going War on Terror. Indeed, global military campaigns of targeted killing threaten to undermine the laws of war devised to regulate and constrain the use of armed force.
The Russian Su-57 and the ‘Fifth-Generation’ Challenge - Moscow’s new ‘fifth-generation’ fighter project is an over-priced and under-competitive counterpart to US and Chinese designs, but it raises policy questions for Europe.
Author(s): Michael Eric Lambert / Language(s): English
Fifth-generation aircraft – characterised by being stealthy, manoeuvrable, and multi-role and possessing advanced avionics and data processing capacities – are both expensive and difficult to build, but promise massive operational advantages over previous versions. The US Air Force has been the only one with such capabilities until recently. Its F-22 Raptor is about to be replaced by the F-35, while numerous competitors are appearing, such as the Chinese Chengdu J20 and the Russian Su-57 (known as the T-50 Su-57). None of the three main European aircraft companies (Eurofighter, Sweden’s Saab and France’s Dassault) are currently able to match the theoretical capabilities of the US, Chinese, and Russian jets, and arguably there is no immediate demand to do so – but at the same time, there is the risk that European defence capabilities may be degraded and that European defence industries may lose out.
The current state of EU-Turkey relations and implications for Czech foreign policy
Author(s): Pelin Ayan Musil / Language(s): English
Keywords: EU-Turkey relations; Czech foreign policy; global human rights sanctions regime; immigration; climate change;
The Czech Republic should approach the EU-Turkey relationship from the perspective of how to bring back the EU’s democratizing influence over Turkey because the decline of democracy in the country is conducive to its unilateral and disruptive foreign policy in areas that are of strategic importance to the EU. The EU has recently adopted a global human rights sanctions regime that targets autocratizing regimes responsible for human rights violations, which can potentially include Turkey. Yet, some softer mechanisms contributing to democratization, such as the strengthening of the linkage between autonomous civil society organizations (CSOs) in Turkey and their European counterparts, are also worth considering as a foreign policy tool. The Czech Republic’s concern about the decline of democracy and rule of law worldwide makes it ideal that its foreign policy should employ such a soft strategy toward Turkey. It can motivate its own CSOs to increase their linkages with the CSOs that have managed to remain autonomous within Turkey’s polarized domestic setting. To this end, the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs can consider including Turkey as one of the priority countries in its Transition Promotion Program. The potential transnational cooperation between the Czech CSOs and the autonomous CSOs in Turkey can focus on less controversial issues for Turkey that still, however, constitute urgent challenges for both the Czech Republic and Turkey. Immigration and climate change are two such exemplary issues.
Author(s): Bríd Ní Ghráinne / Language(s): English
Keywords: Covid-19; International law; pandemic; border issues; refugees;
Covid-19 pays no heed to borders. Globalisation has carried the virus from a market in Wuhan, China, to almost every country in the world. In response to the virus, some governments have closed their borders to refugees and/or have pushed back refugees from their territories, even though they are well-aware of the dire circumstances that have caused these people to flee their homes. This reflection sets out the compatibility of such practices with international refugee and human rights law. It argues that while states may put in place measures to restrict the spread of the virus (such as health screening, testing, and/or quarantine) vis a vis refugees, such measures may not result in refoulement or in denying them an effective opportunity to seek asylum.
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