Meeting Medvedev: The Politics of the Putin Succession

Meeting Medvedev: The Politics of the Putin Succession

Author(s): Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

Keywords: governance of Russia; Dmitry Medvedev;

Dmitry Medvedev’s election on 2 March 2008 offers EU leaders a new chance to overcome their disunity and put their uncertain Russia policy on a better foundation. Whatever his personal inclinations, Medvedev will be unable to behave like a democrat in his first years in office. EU leaders should cautiously welcome the new president’s election, but must wait and see whether Medvedev proves a willing interlocutor who can deliver. They should refrain from the foolish enthusiasm they displayed when the sober and coherent Putin succeeded the ailing Yeltsin in 2000. Instead they should test Medvedev with specific demands over energy policy, Kosovo, and Iran.Medvedev, a lawyer by training, has often been depicted as a “liberal”. Considering the alternatives and his own record, he may well be one of the better options to succeed Vladimir Putin, the outgoing autocratic president. Yet Putin will be looking over Medvedev’s shoulder as prime minister. In the cut-throat world of Russia’s clan politics, Medvedev needs Putin to “protect” him from the “siloviki” -- past and present members of the KGB/FSB. The new president starts in a position of weakness, as he lacks a strong clan of his own. // A Putin-Medvedev double act would not be Russia’s first “cohabitation”. A similar deal was done when power passed from Yeltsin to Putin in 2000. Putin eventually broke free and became his own man when the siloviki triumphed over the former Yeltsinites during the Yukos affair in 2003. In time, Medvedev may do the same. Russia’s real power transition is likely to happen sometime after the election, if and when the new president puts his mark on the system. The time to assess Medvedev will be then.

Can the EU win the Peace in Georgia?

Can the EU win the Peace in Georgia?

Author(s): Nicu Popescu,Mark Leonard,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia-Georgia-Conflict;

The EU has established itself as the main diplomatic broker in the conflict between Russia and Georgia. It should use this position to help forge a positive peace from a war which threatens the foundations of the European security order. Russia has used its conflict with Georgia to display its military power, reclaim a sphere of influence and frighten its neighbours. Rather than looking for punitive measures, the EU should respond to Russia’s demonstration of force with much stronger engagement for democracy, prosperity and security in the broader region - keeping tough measures towards Moscow on the table if Russia resists.This war was caused in part by the dysfunctionality of the previous ‘peace-keeping’ process in Georgia. The EU must work hard towards ensuring that any new arrangements are not unilateral and do not merely legitimate Russia’s de facto control. The EU should promote an international peace-keeping mission and offer to deploy a civilian reconstruction mission dealing with development, building confidence and security between both sides, and tackling wider political issues. It should also encourage the United Nations to set up a commission of enquiry to help establish the truth on the causes and conduct of the war.Instead of focusing on short-term sanctions against Russia, the EU should move quickly to raise its profile in the Eastern Neighbourhood and to help stabilise other conflict regions - paying attention both to old ‘frozen’ conflicts and potential new flashpoints. The EU should also make a special commitment to Ukraine: It should recognise its right to EU membership in the future, agree to a more liberal visa regime, offer a solidarity clause backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and move to integrate Ukraine into the EU’s energy market.

Shaping Europe’s Afghan Surge

Shaping Europe’s Afghan Surge

Author(s): Daniel Korski / Language(s): English

Keywords: ISAF; NATO;

Unnoticed by many, the last few years have seen something of a European military surge in Afghanistan. Since late 2006, 18 of the 25 EU countries participating in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), NATO’s Afghan mission, have increased their troop contributions, and as a result EU member states now account for 43% of ISAF’s total deployment. This military surge has been accompanied by a steady growth in European efforts to contribute to Afghanistan’s reconstruction, from development aid to police training – although not every EU member state is pulling its weight. // These measures have made the EU a major stakeholder in Afghanistan. Yet the EU’s real impact on the country has been limited. In the face of a likely request from the Obama administration to do more, European governments should now formulate a hard-headed political strategy as a complement to the coming US military surge. // The overall aim of this strategy should be to begin systematic outreach to Afghanistan’s insurgency groups. To prepare the ground, the 2009 presidential elections will have to be safeguarded from insurgent attack and fraud. After the election, EU governments should push for the twin processes of reconciliation and constitutional change. But European governments cannot revert to a purely civilian role. They should continue improving their training of the Afghan army and police, and assist US and local forces in emphasising “human security” in military operations. This should be backed up by well-funded and long-term aid commitments, the launch of a European provincial reconstruction team in Kabul, a developmentbased approach to counter-narcotics, and a revived Pakistan strategy.

Dealing with Yanukovych’s Ukraine

Dealing with Yanukovych’s Ukraine

Author(s): Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Yuliya Tymoshenko; Viktor Yanukovych;

Over the last few years, the European Union’s relationship with Ukraine has been undermined by a split on both sides. On the European side, some wanted a reform-minded, western-leaning Ukraine, either as a good thing in itself, or in order to eventually transform or at least contain Russia. Others, meanwhile, were quite happy to allow Ukraine to stagnate in order to keep the thorny question of enlargement off the table. On the Ukrainian side, some saw their future lying in Europe, while others wanted to move closer to Russia. This double split has left Ukraine adrift. However, the election of Viktor Yanukovych as president in 2010 creates a new situation. The political crisis of recent years may not be over – even after the replacement of his rival, Yuliya Tymoshenko, as prime minister, Yanukovych doesn’t yet fully control the government, let alone Ukraine’s powerful ‘oligarchs’ – but his return to power may represent a real opportunity for Europe.

BEYOND WAIT-AND-SEE: The Way forward for EU Balkan Policy

BEYOND WAIT-AND-SEE: The Way forward for EU Balkan Policy

Author(s): Heather Grabbe,Gerald Knaus,Daniel Korski / Language(s): English

Keywords: 2008 Economic Crisis; EU and the Balkans;

In the midst of a huge economic crisis, European Union leaders may be tempted to put off any further decisions on enlargement. However, now that some of the Western Balkan countries have tested the EU’s commitment by formally applying for membership, the wait-and-see approach is unsustainable. The EU has kept six of the countries of the Western Balkans – Albania, BosniaHerzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia – waiting for a decade. The EU has asked them to take on difficult and ambitious reforms to prepare them for membership.However, Balkan leaders are no longer even sure that the EU members really want them in the club. As a result, the EU’s credibility is fading in the region. If it continues to hesitate about the next step, its leverage could fade too. The EU should respond to these membership applications in a positive way while reinforcing ist accession conditionality. The most realistic way to do this is to employ the EU’s existing tools more fully and more effectively, and to better sequence the next steps towards accession. This would support reformers in the region without imposing any additional costs on the EU. The aim is to set out a clear, realistic and motivational programme to help the Balkan countries to get in shape for membership – which could take many years to achieve. This will strengthen governance and provide political momentum to help the region get through the current economic crisis and ist political fallout.

The EU and Belarus after the Election

The EU and Belarus after the Election

Author(s): Balázs Jarábik,Jana Kobzova,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus and EU;

The crackdown that followed the presidential election in Belarus on 19 December 2010 reversed pre-election signals that had promised a relatively liberal atmosphere. After a rigged election result that gave President Alyaksandr Lukashenka an implausible 79 percent of the vote, more than 600 Belarusian citizens were arrested, including eight of Lukashenka’s nine opponents in the election. However, although he was able to survive the election, Lukashenka now faces economic pressures and a forthcoming struggle over the privatisation of state assets, which will be the most important test of his ability to keep both the elite and society under control. In that context, the post-election crackdown was a sign not of the regime’s strength but of its internal weakness. As the country’s internal struggles intensify, it would be a bad time for the European Union to isolate Belarus. // At the same time, however, the EU must react in order to regain credibility in its neighbourhood. In the past, the EU and the United States tried both isolating and engaging the regime. Although neither policy was a complete failure, neither was particularly effective. In addition to expressing solidarity with those still in prison, the EU must now devise a proactive strategy that changes Lukashenka’s options. Lukashenka is a great survivor who has shown skill in balancing between Russia and the West, but his position has been weakened. While Russia is also increasingly frustrated with its ally, the interruption of EU dialogue with Minsk increases the chances that Moscow will gain control of its neighbour’s economy. The EU now has an opportunity to regain the initiative in its relationship with Belarus. It should raise the stakes for both the regime and Russia through a combination of targeted and ‘smart’ isolation, selective sanctions and engagement.

TURNING PRESENCE INTO POWER: Lessons from the Eastern Neighbourhood

TURNING PRESENCE INTO POWER: Lessons from the Eastern Neighbourhood

Author(s): Nicu Popescu,Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Neighbourhood Policy;

Since the launch of its European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in 2003, the European Union has become the biggest trading partner of most of the states in the region, embarked on association and free-trade talks, deployed crisis management operations, and offered visa facilitation and visa-free dialogues. But the EU has not succeeded in turning this presence into power. In fact, as the EU has become more involved in the eastern neighbourhood, its ability to influence political developments in the region has stagnated at best. With the exception of Moldova, all of the EU’s eastern neighbours have gone in the wrong direction in the last few years. // Behind the EU’s failure to turn presence into power in the eastern neighbourhood lie three structural trends: the increasingly authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes in most of the neighbourhood states; the emergence of a multi-polar world that allows countries in the eastern neighbourhood to play “neo-Titoist” games of balancing between external actors; and the EU’s own limited commitment to the ENP. The EU should continue to increase its own visibility and outreach with the public, business interests and state institutions in the eastern neighbourhood. However, it should not rely on soft power alone. Instead, it should also aim to develop a more transactional relationship with its eastern neighbours – in other words, to decide what its interests are, be less diplomatic with interlocutors and set tough conditions on issues such as visa liberalisation.

EGYPT’S HYBRID REVOLUTION: A bolder EU Approach

EGYPT’S HYBRID REVOLUTION: A bolder EU Approach

Author(s): Anthony Dworkin,Daniel Korski,Nick Witney / Language(s): English

Keywords: Egypt Revolution, Arab Spring;

The success or failure of Egypt’s transition to democracy will have huge consequences for the Middle East and for Europe. If the country overcomes the obstacles to political reform, it would set a powerful example for the region. But although the ruling Military Council appears committed to hand over power, it is governing in an opaque way and has resorted to summary justice to deal with protest and criticism. Some liberals also worry that the quick timetable for elections will favour the remnants of the old regime and the Muslim Brotherhood. The revolution has also exacerbated the precarious state of the country’s economy. // Despite Egypt’s importance, however, the EU has struggled to achieve influence in the country. In March Ashton and Barroso proposed a new policy framework, which is a good start but should be strengthened, for example by cancelling Egyptian debt. In the longer term, the EU should take a more political approach and behave more like a regional power. For example, Europeans should say clearly that military leaders who resort to summary justice to deal with protest and criticism are violating fundamental political rights. EU officials must also be ready to engage with all Egypt’s political groups, including former NDP members and the Muslim Brotherhood. Europe needs to move beyond fear about migration to see the potential for longer-term economic benefits for both sides of the Mediterranean.

THE END OF THE PUTIN CONSENSUS

THE END OF THE PUTIN CONSENSUS

Author(s): Ben Judah / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU and Russia; Vladimir Putin;

The “Putin consensus” of the 2000s is over. Although Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is certain to win a hollow victory in the Russian presidential elections in March, the current electoral cycle has weakened his authority and shown the fragility of his regime. Russia is undergoing a process of re-politicisation and is entering a phase of “late Putinism” that is likely to be characterised by elite divisions, continued protests and a gradual ebbing away of popular support. The protest movement that erupted after the falsified vote in the parliamentary election in December has not yet challenged Putin’s grip on power but is nevertheless a symptom of an increasingly unstable Russia. The European Union should see the current crisis as a clear signal that the Putin system will not last forever. Since December, the Kremlin has already faked counter-demonstrations, harassed the media, indulged in ritualistic but corrosive anti-Westernism, and splurged on social spending to try to re-consolidate support. Putin has also talked of reform, but his weakness will more likely make him more dependent on his oligarchic allies. The EU should begin a long-term dialogue with the Russian opposition focusing on improving anti-corruption practices inside the EU and take measures such as passing a pan-EU “Magnitsky List” to threaten those involved in egregious human rights abuses and corruption with visa bans and asset freezes.

DON’T CLOSE BORDERS, MANAGE THEM: How to improve EU Policy on Migration through Libya

DON’T CLOSE BORDERS, MANAGE THEM: How to improve EU Policy on Migration through Libya

Author(s): Mattia Toaldo / Language(s): English

Keywords: migration Africa-Europe;

Two years after the start of the refugee cri s i s , migrat ion flows via Libya to Europe are increasing, while deaths in the Mediterranean have skyrocketed. Current policies have failed to reduce the number of migrants reaching Europe’s shores. // The EU and its member states need to rethink their basic assumptions about migration and break popular taboos about the movement of people if they are going to reduce flows. The first step is to cast away the idea that borders can be completely closed to economic migrants. // The EU and its member states need to manage flows, rather than aiming to cut them to zero. To do this, legal migration channels should be opened so that illegal channels can be shut via a series of readmission agreements. // Through a coalition of the willing, EU member states can implement this policy, which should also involve establishing safe and quick procedures to guarantee asylum to refugees; reinforcing the Libyan economy and its local communities; building respect for the rule of law and human rights; and finally, broadening the scope of the EU Border Assistance Mission to Libya.

Spain after the Elections: The “Germany of the South”?

Spain after the Elections: The “Germany of the South”?

Author(s): José Ignacio Torreblanca,Mark Leonard / Language(s): English

As Spain votes, it finds itself at the centre of the two major crises with which the European Union (EU) is currently struggling: the euro crisis and the Arab Spring. Should it fail to resolve the euro crisis, the European project will be politically and economically paralysed for a long time. Should Europe fail to support the Arab revolutions, on the other hand, the EU will be faced with a series of drifting countries on its southern rim. Yet the collapse of the eurozone and failure on the Mediterranean are not inevitable. Spain could play an important role in solving both crises – if the rest of Europe helps it to do so. // First, through Mariano Rajoy’s plan to turn Spain into the “Germany of the South”, Spain can help to heal the divisions between northern and southern Europe. This will in turn give Spain credibility to make sure that, as Germany and others take necessary steps towards political union, they do so in a way that is open and fair and benefits the whole of Europe. Second, by taking the lead on European foreign policy in the Mediterranean and by associating itself with the Weimar Triangle’s defence agenda, Spain can make a contribution to European foreign policy. Such a proactive strategy would be good for both the EU and Spain.

Ukraine after the Tymoshenko Verdict

Ukraine after the Tymoshenko Verdict

Author(s): Andrew Wilson / Language(s): English

Keywords: Yuliya Tymoshenko;

The trial and sentencing of the former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko in 2011 is a double challenge to the European Union – testing both its credibility and the transformative capacity of its soft power. Kiev ignored clear warnings from Brussels and key member states, and then failed to deliver on promises of compromise. // The EU-Ukraine summit on Monday 19th December offers the chance to stop the rot in relations with Kyiv. // In a new policy memo published by ECFR, ‘Ukraine after the Tymoshenko verdict’, Andrew Wilson argues that instead of lecturing Ukraine on human rights the EU needs to show that it means business.

Re-Writing the US-EU Relationship

Re-Writing the US-EU Relationship

Author(s): Daniel Korski,Ulrike Guerot,Mark Leonard / Language(s): English

In 2005, as the dust settled on one of the most fractious periods in transatlantic relations, the then German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder called for a debate about new transatlantic institutions in a speech at the Munich Security Conference. He argued that NATO could no longer be the central institution in a relationship that spanned everything from climate change and genetically modified (GM) foods to joint actions in Afghanistan and the Balkans. The thrust of his message was undeniably correct, but the timing was not ideal. Just two years after the invasion of Iraq, Europeans and Americans were willing to work together again at an operational level, but political divisions were still raw. And there were still great differences, at the level of analysis and solutions, on some of the biggest global issues, such as international terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, climate change, and the International Criminal Court.

Can the Possible Non-extension of the New START Treaty Influence the Strategic Stability in the Use of the Outer Space Domain?

Can the Possible Non-extension of the New START Treaty Influence the Strategic Stability in the Use of the Outer Space Domain?

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: New START Treaty; The Outer Space Treaty; security situation; US-Russia security relations;

If Trump’s administration refuses the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to extend the validity of the last US-Russian arms-control treaty – the New START Treaty – it could have many negative consequences. A lot of arms-control experts, including the former US and Russian Ministers of Foreign Affairs Madeleine Albright and Igor Ivanov, as mentioned in their February declaration, stressed their support of the Treaty’s extension. The New START Treaty, which restricts the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons, will expire in February 2021 but its wording enables its extension for five years more. Concerns related to the negative consequences of non-extension of the Treaty include, among others, that there could be a suppression of the strategic stability in the use of the space domain as a result of the end of the Treaty’s complex and intrusive verification system. The potential demise of the Treaty would have various negative impacts; besides the end of notifications, the exchange of telemetric and information data, on-site inspections etc., in connection with this the Treaty’s non-extension would especially have an effect on the binding principle of mutual non-interference with the national technical means (NTMs) of verification of the other party.

The Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Waiting

The Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Waiting

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Security policy; USA; Russia; Nuclear arms control; Jo Biden; North Korean nuclear and missile program; Iranian nuclear program;

The reflection deals with the current state of the nuclear arms control and disarmament process with a stressing on the role of the Biden administrationʼs security policy. The policy follows the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) of March 2021 till the summaries of the new relevant security documents, i.e. the National Defense Strategy (NDS) and the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), will be published early next year. The reflection deals also with the US-Russia strategic dialogue, the current development in the effort to reach the Korean Peninsulaʼs denuclearization and the restoration of the US participation in the so-called Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA). The final part of the reflection pays attention to some of the main factors of the USʼs internal and international policy that could influence the implementation of the declared intentions of the above mentioned security documents.

Can Anonymous Be Prosecuted? A Reflection Under International Law in the Framework of the Current Armed Conflict in Ukraine

Can Anonymous Be Prosecuted? A Reflection Under International Law in the Framework of the Current Armed Conflict in Ukraine

Author(s): Federica Cristani / Language(s): English

Keywords: International law; Armed conflict in Ukraine; Cyber-criminal law; Anonymous;

This reflection offers a concise analysis under national and international law of the cyber-operations carried out by Anonymous in the context of the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine. It is highlighted that each one of the individuals acting as Anonymous is subject to the relevant national (cyber-criminal) law jurisdictions. Moreover, in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, they can be subject to the law of armed conflict. If their cyber-conduct amounts to “direct participation in hostilities”, they can even become targetable according to international humanitarian law. Also, when Anonymous directly participates in hostilities from a state that is not party to the armed conflict, the neutrality of non-belligerent countries can be challenged.

The present development in the nuclear arms control

The present development in the nuclear arms control

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: nuclear arms control; security crisis; States-Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW); USA; Russia; Ukraine; New START;

The reflection highlights the need to increase the international nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control efforts, particularly in the wake of the security crisis development triggered by the war in Ukraine and Russian threats to use nuclear weapons. In this context, it examines the courses and results of two important conferences dealing with nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, that were organized this year. These conferences were the first Meeting of the States-Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna in June and the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which took place in August at the UN Headquarters in New York. The conclusions contain some expected courses of action to reduce the risk of a nuclear war and a nuclear arms race.

International law with Chinese characteristics. The South China Sea Territorial Dispute

International law with Chinese characteristics. The South China Sea Territorial Dispute

Author(s): Sardor ALLAYAROV / Language(s): English

Keywords: South China Sea Territorial Dispute; International law; China; Geopolitics;

China actively participated in the drafting of the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and ratified it in 1996. The domestic legal system of China also contains a set of laws such as the Law on the Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone (1992), and the Law on the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the Continental Shelf (1998).

The crucial and fateful nuclear-arms dilemma

The crucial and fateful nuclear-arms dilemma

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nuclear arms dilemma; AI and nuclear weapons; USA; Russia; Chinese nuclear capacity;

Nuclear weapons are an existential threat to humanity, as are the increasingly intense manifestation of climate change. The Reflection describes more broadly the main risk factors of this threat, including artificial intelligence (AI). In this context, it highlights the impasse which the US-Russian arms control process and strategic dialogue have reached as a result of their strained relations and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It also analyses the expected developments in the nuclear weapon field, taking into account the US Pentagon’s warning about the possible growth of China’s nuclear arsenal. In particular, it concludes by noting the main dilemmas for further development in this area: either the initiation of arms control and risk reduction negotiations by the major nuclear powers or the growing spiral of a costly and security-risk-laden nuclear arms race. The possibility of an ethical and moral commitment by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, the so-called P5 (the US, Russia, China, France and the UK), to “responsible nuclear behaviour“, which is promoted by the US administration, appears as a temporary solution to this security crisis.

World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

World Politics: Scenarios 2012–2013

Author(s): Vít Beneš,Mitchell Belfer,Mats Braun,Jan Eichler,Rudolf Fürst,Vladimír Handl,Nik Hynek,Michal Kořan,Petr Kratochvíl,Lucia Najšlová,Vít Střítecký,Tomáš Weiss / Language(s): English

Keywords: Fiscal policy; Germany; Central Europe; EU; Turkey; Cyprus; China; USA; Iran; Bahrain; Afghanistan; Asia-Pacific Area; Russia; Presidential elections; Geopolitics;

Scenario building was first introduced in the U.S. security community in the 1950s. In RAND projects, “scenarios” (with the term consciously borrowed from the Holywood film industry to emphasize their storytelling character) evolved into a sophisticated auxiliary means of political decision-making. The method was thus born from the spirit of the Cold War, yet soon it found its way into the private sector, where it has served to manage corporate risk. More recently, scenarios witnessed a rise in popularity also in the think tank community as outcomes relevant for policy makers due to their potential to bridge theoretical knowledge with the needs of political practice (early warning potential) and as a means of broadening and deepening the space for public debate about global politics.