Využitie analýzy časových radov pri sledovaní notifkácie tuberkulózy na Slovensku
Use of Time Series Analysis in Monitoring Tuberculosis Notifications in Slovakia

Summary/Abstract: Determining temporal variation and predicting tuberculosis may play an important role in stimulating public debate on the prevention, control and treatment of tuberculosis within programs to control this serious social disease, even when under control. The results can be used as a tool to support decision making in resource planning and allocation. This study predicts the incidence of TB in Slovakia and compares differences in the analysis of time series published in the past. The aim of the new data analysis was to update the prediction of TB development in Slovakia by 2030 and to compare any differences with the data published in 2017. In the case of favorable development, the incidence rate in 2019 will be 5.81 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, representing 314.65 patients. We will reach the incidence limit of 5.0 in 2022, 5 years later than in the forecast from 2014, when we were to reach the limit in 2017.

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