W poszukiwaniu demograficznych efektów rządowego programu „Rodzina 500 Plus”
In Search of Demographic Effects of Polish Government’s “Family 500 Plus” Program

Summary/Abstract: In this article, we evaluate the demographic effects of the Polish government “Family 500 Plus” program (500+) using Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS). We find that the program increased births by 4.5% per month from its introduction to the end of 2017, which translated into an average of 1,420 additional births each month. Meaning that one birth was associated with spending nearly 1.4 million under the program during that time. By mid-2019, when benefits were extended to first children, the program no longer showed an impact on births. 500+ did not affect decisions to have first child by the end of 2017. The program induced most fifth, third, fourth, and finally second births. The program’s effects are weaker compared to pronatalist interventions in other countries, at a relatively high cost. The proposed estimate of the program’s effectiveness per birth provides an opportunity to evaluate another pronatalist intervention in the future.

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