Próba kwantyfikacji makroekonomicznych skutków wzrostu światowych cen ropy naftowej dla gospodarki Polski
An attempt at quantification of macroeconomic consequences for Poland of a sharp increase in world prices of crude oil

Summary/Abstract: The paper attempts to quantify the possible macroeconomic effects for Poland of a sharp increase in world prices of crude oil by means of a modified version of the W8D- 2002 econometric model of the national economy. Apart from presenting the modifications – introduced into the model to reach the planned purpose – the paper contains some methodological comments on practical aspects of forecasting, used while elaborating the forecast. The benchmark forecast covers the period 2008-2020 and assumes only moderate increase in prices of petroleum – parallel to overall inflation - just to keep its real value constant in time. In the alternative variant the prices accelerate to keep constant – in real terms – the available stocks of crude oil, whereas the latter are subject to continuous depletion. The effects of the rising prices are observed by means of deviations from the baseline solution.

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