Model struktury ludności Polski według płci i wieku
A model of Poland’s population by age and gender

Summary/Abstract: The paper presents a top-down strategy, employed to construct a model of the population structure of Poland by age and sex. Parameters of the Gompertz and logistic curves – estimated for each year of the sample in a piece-wise manner, i.e. splitting the whole life span into some coherent age-groups – are made a function of life expectancy itself. The fact that - from technical point of view - it is exactly age-specific mortality rates that build life expectancy measure, justifies such an approach. In effect, there emerges a demographic model that – if incorporated into a national model of the Polish economy – can enable elaboration of forecasts and simulations that would explicitly take into account the contemporaneous interlinks between the economy and demography. Such a joint system would withstand the otherwise just criticism that operational demographic models – in their majority – take for granted assumptions concerning economic circumstances, whereas economic models take for such demographic environment.

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