O miernikach dokładności prognoz ex post w prognozowaniu zmiennych o silnym natężeniu sezonowości
About measures of ex-post the forecasts accuracy used to variables with strong of seasonal fluctuations
Author(s): Jan Zawadzki, Maria Szmuksta-ZawadzkaSubject(s): Economy
Published by: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Keywords: measures of forecasts accuracy; seasonal fluctuations
Summary/Abstract: This work is devoted to discussions on application of relative measures of accuracy of the ex-post forecasts. The authors showed that when the variable has a very large amplitude of seasonality indicators the average absolute forecast error (MAPE) can not be used. Theoretical study are illustrated on the example of thermal energy production.
Journal: Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
- Issue Year: XIII/2012
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 212-223
- Page Count: 12
- Language: Polish