Główne tendencje w polskim handlu zagranicznym po akcesji do Unii Europejskiej. Próba prognozy
Main tendencies in Polish foreign trade after the accession to the European Union. A forecast attempt

Summary/Abstract: In the paper, the author presents the results of an analysis of key trends in Polish foreign trade in the period 2004–2009. An attempt to forecast the relations in this area during the next three years is also made. The analysed indicators include both the basic aggregates (exports, imports) and such ones as commodity structure, price terms of trade, coefficients of correlation between price changes and changes in the volume of trade and revealed comparative advantage indices. The main conclusions come down to indicate that the share of processed products in exports is increasing steadily and that the collapse of zloty’s exchange rate in late 2008 and early 2009 was one of the reasons for continued upward trend in the value of Polish exports expressed in PLN.

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