Ocena stabilności makroekonomicznej w gospodarkach unijnych w świetle procedury nierównowagi makroekonomicznej. Aspekt ryzyka zjawisk kryzysowych
Evaluation of macroeconomic stability in the economies of the EU in the light of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure. Risk aspect of the crisis phenomenon

Summary/Abstract: Last financial and economic crisis from 2007 has resulted in measures taken by the EU to strengthen supervision and better coordination of national economic policies. For this purpose, it appointed a new supervisory mechanism, called the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. This procedure aims at the early detection of risks destabilizing the EU economy. In this process an important role is played by scoreboard, consisting of 11 macro-economic parameters – Scoreboard. The aim of the study is to identify the relationship between violations of acceptable Scoreboard indicators and the possible occurrence of crises. To study this correlation an analysis of Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient was used. A study shows that a significant correlative relationship between the occurrence of imbalances of Scoreboard table parameters and the severity of crises occurred in the case of violations of acceptable thresholds: current account balance, international investment position, the real effective exchange rate, participation in markets export, nominal unit labor costs, credit growth for the private sector, unemployment rate and total liabilities of the financial sector ‒ creates dangerous macroeconomic environment conducive to the occurrence of intense crises.

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