Sezonowość i prognozowanie ruchu pasażerskiego w transporcie lotniczym na przykładzie Portu Lotniczego Szczecin-Goleniów
Air passanger traffic forecasting and seasonality on the example of Szczecin-Goleniów Airport

Summary/Abstract: Airports’ activities are influenced by seasonality of, for example, the air passenger traffic. Its share in airports functioning is largely connected with seasons. As the volume of passengers influences the level of income generated by airports, the passenger transport forecast should be seasonally-adjusted. The aim of this work is to measure, on a monthly basis, multiplicative seasonal fluctuations of the air passengers traffic at the Solidarity Szczecin- -Goleniów Airport. Also an attempt was made to prepare forecasts about a number of passengers arriving and departing from this particular airport. The research was carried out on the basis of monthly data implying the number of Polish passengers using the Szczecin-Goleniów airport between 2004 and 2014. The values of seasonal indexes were determined and, on their basis, a forecast for 2015 and 2016 was prepared. The anticipated number of passengers in 2015 was verified with the usage of tracking signals. They confirmed credibility of the acquired results.

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