Pułapka średniego dochodu – implikacje dla krajów grupy wyszehradzkiej
The middle-income trap – implications for countries of the Visegrad group

Summary/Abstract: This paper analyses whether the Visegrad countries (V4) have been affected by the so called “the middle income trap” or can fall prey to it in the future. We compare selected indices for the V4 countries and use statistical methods (Chow test) to verify results of our analysis. The data comes from the World Bank, OECD, the World Economic Forum, and Penn World Tables 8.1. Using comparative and statistical methods we identify factors determining the existence of the middle income trap or the lack thereof. In particular, we examine the role of GDP per capita, GDP growth rates, the level of human capital development and the structure of exports. We find that the V4 countries exhibit characteristics of the countries that may either fall prey of the middle income trap in the future or have already fallen into it. The comparative analysis suggests that only the Czech Republic may escape falling into the middle income trap, but the statistical analysis does not confirm this. The statistical analysis clearly shows that since 2007 the Czech Republic has been growing more slowly and that the scale of this slowdown is statistically significant. Poland has not fallen into the middle income trap yet, but the indicators characterising the Polish economy (and in particular those referring to Research and Development) suggest that it may fall into it in the future. Slovakia and Hungary are already stuck in the middle income trap.

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