Zgodność i predyktywność testów koniunktury bankowej z koniunkturą ogólnogospodarczą
Compliance and forecasting of the surveys of the banking situation with the overall economic situation

Summary/Abstract: Due to the updated information and the promptness of accessing it, the business tendency surveys can be regarded as an interesting source of information about the current and future changes in the trends of the economic situation. The objective of the research was to evaluate to what extent the surveys of the banking situation reflect the overall economic situation as well as whether they allow to predict it. The surveys used the results of the banking situation studies conducted by TNS Polska, which were compared with the changes in GDP in the years 1997–2014. Mutual correlation coefficients, vector error correction models as well as the surveys of cointegration and causality based on those models were used in order to evaluate the relationships. The conducted surveys revealed that the surveys of the banking situation reflect the changes in the overall economic situation, but their predictability is almost nonexistent.

• Details
• Contents