WYKORZYSTANIE RESZT MODELI TRENDU W OCENIE SKUTKÓW KRYZYSU GOSPODARCZEGO
USE OF GROSS VALUE ADDED MODELS’ RESIDUALS IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS EFFECTS

Summary/Abstract: It was commonly believed in modern economics that such deep economic crisis like this observed in 1928–1932 never will happen again. Till 2008. Economists considered that the probability of decrease of GDP by more than 30–40% annually is nearly impossible. After the II World War the global output in United States did not deviate from a long-term trend by more than 10% until 2009. But current economic crisis made economists aware of their mistake. In the paper author tried to explain inherent causes of the world economic crisis and described in the synthetic way a nature of randomness and its sources in economics, especially considering the sensitivity of economies to random appearing incidents. A main aim of the paper was a proposal of method that was applied to the appraisal of losses caused by the economic crisis in every single economy in the world.

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