Ocena wpływu zadłużenia zagranicznego na ryzyko kredytowe Polski w modelu roszczeń warunkowych
Impact of foreign debt on Polish credit risk in the model of contingent claims approach

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the study is to assess the impact of foreign debt on the credit risk of Poland. The objective is based on the discussion on the essence of country risk, Polish debt against EU countries, and conducted research. As a research methodology of claims contingent has been chosen. Polish foreign debt at the end of 2015 reached the value of 64% of GDP. Forecasts of foreign debt are not optimistic for Poland. This will result from the economic aspirations of Polish society, as well as from the consumption growth still disproportionately high in relation to their financial capacity (accumulated internal savings). This means that savings are still small in relation to the development needs of economy. The gap between the demand for funds needed to finance the growth of national income and the possibilities of obtaining them from internal savings Poland will have to complement through the growth of foreign debt.

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