POLSKO-NIEMIECKA WYMIANA HANDLOWA W SEKTORZE MASZYNOWYM W LATACH 2001–2013. OCENA SZANS I ZAGROŻEŃ
POLISH-GERMAN TRADE IN THE MACHINERY SECTOR 2001–2013. AN EVALUATION OF OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

Summary/Abstract: Taking into account the paradigm of the middle income trap the goal of the paper is to embark on the analysis of Polish foreign trade in the machinery sector (chapter HS 84 being the second most important just after the automotive industry) between 2001–2013 with special regard paid to trade relations with Germany. The research covers the evolution of revealed comparative advantages, technological advancement (shares of mid-tech and high-tech goods), diversification of Polish exports and imports, partial trade balance and the intensity of intra-industry trade with Germany according to the Grubel-Lloyd index. In the author’s view, a persistent and durable orientation on trade cooperation with Germany poses a great deal of threats. In the long run Poland may be faced with the challenge of structural obstacles to economic growth and development, determining the essence of the middle income trap and thus sustaining a semi-peripheral character of the Polish economy.

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