Zmiany w liczebności i strukturze populacji a rozwój społeczno-ekonomiczny
Changes in the population size and structure and socio-economic growth development

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this article is to present major socio-economic consequences of the population size and structure and, in particular, their effects on the economic growth of industrial countries. The impact of the ongoing demographic processes on the functioning of developed countries is taking momentum, which makes the issues raised in the article topical. The authors review relevant literature and make vital conclusions and observations. For measuring the impact of demography on economic growth of the OECD countries a shift-share decomposition is used for both the past (1990–2103) and the future, up to the year 2050. The authors draw the following three – apart from many more specific ones – meta-conclusions on the basis of the reviewed literature. Firstly, in the long-run economic growth is independent of population size. Secondly, population structure impacts immediately and directly economic growth per capita. Thirdly, population size and structure are not independent of each other, which means that generations under the second demographic transition are bound to experience a lot of adverse consequences until the transition is over.

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