POKUŠAJ IDENTIFICIRANJA SKUPINE "VJEROJATNIH GLASAČA - U PREDIZBORNIM ISTRAŽIVANJIMA JAVNOGA MNlJENJA
AN ATTEMPT AT IDENTIFYING THE GROUP OF "LIKELY VOTERS" IN PRE-ELECTION POLLS

Summary/Abstract: In this paper the author discusses some methodological problems concerning pre-election polls that have occured as a result of spontaneous selection of potential examinees, on the one hand, and incomplete election turnout of voters, on the other hand. With regard to the latter, the author analyzes some procedures of detecting "likely voters" used by American researchers for defining the basic group in order to select samples for preelection polls and to weight results obtained on a sample of the whole electorate. Since this methodological issue, due to an evidently decreasing trend of election turnout, is also becoming increasingly significant in Croatia, the paper deals with some of the possible criteria for identifying the group of "likely voters" in specific social circumstances in Croatia.

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