Finansowanie gospodarki przez sektor bankowy. Scenariusze zdarzeń
Financing the economy by the banking sector. Event scenarios

Author(s): Iwona Dorota Czechowska, Czesław Lipiński, Joanna Stawska, Wojciech Zatoń, Joanna Stępińska
Subject(s): Economy, Financial Markets
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Keywords: banks; banking sector; loans; financing the economy; event scenarios; credit risk
Summary/Abstract: The monograph is a compendium of knowledge in the field of broadly understood finance, on the essence and mechanisms of the functioning of the banking sector and the problems associated with them. The subject of the analysis is the financing of the needs of the economy through credit action. The importance of this problem is extremely important, because the provision of funds is the main function performed by banks for the economy, as well as the basic source of banks' income. The aim of the study is to identify and assess the prospects of the banking system's ability to finance the economy in Poland. The publication describes the issue of the development of credit action in Poland, and scenario forecasts for the demand for credit are developed. The assumptions and results of forecast scenarios showing different variants of credit growth paths and the banking sector's demand for capital adequate to them are presented. The basis for the presented forecasts is the inflow of EU funds under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (KPO), as well as funds from the cohesion fund. In the individual scenarios, different assumptions were made regarding the formation of macroeconomic variables in the years 2024-2027. The assumption of different macroeconomic scenarios resulted from the need to test different credit growth paths related to them. The scale of credit growth was dependent on the adopted macroeconomic assumptions, but also on changes in the structure of investment financing by enterprises. The results of the scenarios are varied and lead to the final conclusions that in order to effectively support the economy with financing provided by banks, stable and predictable conditions for the functioning of this sector should be created. They should be based on transparent, long-term regulations and adjustment of costs incurred by banks to the role they should play in a developing economy. In previous studies, relatively rarely have attempts been made to conduct an in-depth analysis of the financing of the economy by the banking sector. The originality of this publication is the collection of all information on this subject and the presentation of this issue in the perspective of potential event scenarios. This is one of the few publications that present such issues in such a synthetic and at the same time detailed way on the publishing market in Poland.

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