Rentowność przedsiębiorstw w warunkach niepewności – analiza z wykorzystaniem sieci neuronowych
Profitability of enterprises during changes in macroeconomic conditions—analysis using neural networks

Author(s): Dawid Szutowski
Subject(s): Economy, Business Economy / Management, Financial Markets, Accounting - Business Administration, Marketing / Advertising, Business Ethics
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Keywords: rentowność przedsiębiorstw;warunki makroekonomiczne;sieć neuronowa;
Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this chapter is to identify the effects of the selected macroeconomic variables on the profitability of enterprises. A neural network, specifically a multilayer perceptron, was used to analyse the data. The input layer included three macroeconomic variables (unemployment rate, real disposable income and wages), and the output layer included the target variable, i.e. net return on assets (ROA). Sensitivity analysis was also performed. The study used data for almost 6,300 enterprises representing 21 sections specified in the Polish Classification of Activities. The analysis indicated that the most important variable in the context of shaping ROA is the dynamics of the average monthly gross real wage in the national economy. The second most important factor is the unemployment rate, and the least important is the dynamics of gross real disposable income. The paper attempts to fill the research gap concerning the effects of macroeconomic variables on company profitability.

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