ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SECURITY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH VUCA
ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SECURITY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH VUCA

Author(s): Valentin-Lucian MAFTEI, Raluca Elena RADU
Subject(s): Social Sciences
Published by: Carol I National Defence University Publishing House
Keywords: VUCA; security environment; adaptive strategies.
Summary/Abstract: The current security model and its trends bring to the fore ever more diverse challenges on global security. Thus, we are talking about an unpredictable and rapidly fluctuating environment, in which the decision-makers are facing sudden and complex changes, and the classical approaches becoming increasingly inadequate. In this article, we intend to analyze the specific challenges of this new security context, characterized by VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity), and to identify possible forms of response to these challenges. Following the first direction, we will highlight the influence of VUCA on the current security environment by analyzing the 4 dimensions: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Volatility in security is fueled by geopolitical changes, regional conflicts, climate change, and the rise of non-state actors such as terrorist groups and evil cyber organizations. Uncertainty adds another dimension by the difficulty of anticipating changes and making precise threat assessments. The complexity of security comes from the interconnections between actors and risk factors, including, requiring multidisciplinary approaches and international collaboration. Ambiguity in threat assessment can lead to suboptimal decisions and can be amplified by disinformation and propaganda. In the second direction, we will highlight the need for adaptive strategies to be flexible, and resilient, and to include international collaboration in order to successfully respond to VUCA challenges. The use of advanced technology and the development of anticipation and risk management capabilities are also essential in this context. At the end of the paper, we will argue that adaptive strategies are crucial in the VUCA environment of global security, ensuring an effective and adaptable approach to dealing with threats in an uncertain and ever-changing world

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