№110: The Border Crisis as an Example of Hybrid Warfare
№110: The Border Crisis as an Example of Hybrid Warfare

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner
Contributor(s): Sławomir Dębski (Editor), Patrycja Sasnal (Editor), Wojciech Lorenz (Editor)
Subject(s): Politics, International relations/trade, Security and defense, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych
Keywords: Hybrid Warfare; border; crisis; Belarus; EU; NATO; Poland; Lithuania; Latvia;
Summary/Abstract: The crisis on the border of Belarus with three EU and NATO countries - Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia - that started nearly a year ago, in spring, was caused by the Belarusian authorities on purpose. Initially, they wanted to divert attention from the country’s internal situation and undermine the international position of their western neighbours while forcing the EU to negotiate the sanctions. During the crisis, these goals evolved into a multi-faceted hybrid operation backed by Russia. Considering that provoking a conflict below the threshold of war is an effective way to significantly engage an opposing party’s forces and resources, it is expected that hybrid activities against EU and NATO members will only increase in the future. The Union and Alliance can oppose such tactics by strengthening their own resilience and cooperating with allies to counter hybrid threats.

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