Series:PISM Strategic File

0.00 €

№90: Six Takeaways on European Migration Management since the Adoption of the Global Compact for Migration

№90: Six Takeaways on European Migration Management since the Adoption of the Global Compact for Migration

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Global Compact for Migration; European migration management; global migrations; international cooperation; European Union;

The Global Compact for Migration (GCM), an agreement codifying and facilitating global migration management, was adopted by an overwhelming majority of countries in December 2018. Several reservations notwithstanding, it should be seen as a milestone achievement in international cooperation on migration. It showcased once again, however, divisions on the issue within and between EU Member States. A year on, this paper draws several conclusions about European migration management: divisions in transatlantic relations weaken global attempts at migration management; externalisation may be an effective tactic but deals with fickle governments are a bad strategy; for now, migration is no longer a central, politically defining issue in Europe, and the narrative about migration is increasingly being shaped by new actors.

More...

0.00 €

№89: U.S. Policy towards the UK under Trump

№89: U.S. Policy towards the UK under Trump

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: United States; United Kingdom; US-UK relations; Donald Trump; transatlantic cooperation; intelligence and security issues; Brexit;

President Donald Trump has shifted the balance of his partnership with the UK toward the U.S., straining transatlantic ties in the process. He actively sides with Brexiteers who support a no deal departure from the European Union. Forcing himself into the UK’s internal debate and sharply criticising British partners in public speeches and media forums has caused added tension. Additionally, approaches to the intelligence and security issue of 5G development spawned a divisive debate. Relations between the U.S. and UK are likely to remain one-sided, with the possibility of deepening the asymmetry if Trump is re-elected during the UK’s post-Brexit recovery.

More...

0.00 €

№88: Russia’s Political Offensive in Africa

№88: Russia’s Political Offensive in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; Africa; security policy; annexation of Crimea; Middle East; military policy;

After increasing its leverage in the security domain in post-Soviet states following the annexation of Crimea and proving itself to be a capable game-changer in the Middle East (Syria), Russia turned to Africa in its efforts to regain a global position. In the last year, Russia has focused on strengthening its influence and securing military and economic outposts. Its government-to-government approach tends to favour isolated regimes struggling with shortages of legitimacy by offering them a boost in security capacities. In return, Russia obtains access to cash-effective industries. Both pose challenges to EU policies as the bloc’s African partners increasingly perceive Russia as an alternative source of support.

More...

0.00 €

№87: Consequences of the U.S. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

№87: Consequences of the U.S. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: United States; Donald Trump; Trans-Pacific Partnership; free trade agreement; geopolitics; international trade;

Donald Trump, at the beginning of his presidency, decided to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation free trade agreement signed in 2016. By this act, the U.S. has lost a very important economic and geopolitical tool in the Asia-Pacific region. Although there are chances that the remaining 11 countries will ratify the agreement without the U.S., it is much less significant and most probably will not be a template for future trade agreements as planned. As a result, the leadership of regional integration may fall to China, which perceived TPP as part of a U.S. containment strategy. At the same time, the EU can benefit from the disarray by pursuing its own trade agenda in the Asia-Pacific region.

More...

0.00 €

№86: The “New Turkey” in the Making: What Should the EU’s Strategy Be?

№86: The “New Turkey” in the Making: What Should the EU’s Strategy Be?

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: New Turkey; European Union; Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Turkey’s presidential system; international relations; EU’s strategy towards Turkey;

Turkey’s presidential system referendum constituted another step in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of power. The indications are that it will open the next phase of the Turkish state’s remodelling. Although after a long and polarising campaign Turkish authorities may intend to decrease tensions both at home and abroad—especially in Turkey’s relations with its Western allies—the process could have adverse effects. Thus, the EU Member States may need a new strategy towards Turkey. While it ought to focus on common European-Turkish interests, it also should be aimed at working out a model of relations that would tie Turkey closer to the EU.

More...

0.00 €

№85: Trends in Force Posture in Europe

№85: Trends in Force Posture in Europe

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; OSCE; military policy; US military presence in Europe; military expenditures; international relations;

Two opposite trends in force posture in Europe became evident in the last decade. Out of the six biggest military spenders among the OSCE participating States, four—France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom—have been on a downward trend in regard to their force posture: reducing the number of personnel, downscaling high-end capabilities and decreasing force readiness; the same is true for the U.S. military presence in Europe. The outlier was Russia. While the Russian armed forces were shrinking and disposing of large quantities of legacy equipment, the military capabilities required for high-intensity conventional operations were revamped, force readiness improved, and scenarios involving a large-scale conflict in the OSCE area practiced.

More...

0.00 €

№84: A Win-Win Situation? What to Make of the EU-UK Deal

№84: A Win-Win Situation? What to Make of the EU-UK Deal

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; United Kingdom; Brexit; Multilateral negotiations; referendum on EU membership; European interests;

After over three months of intense multilateral negotiations, an agreement on a new settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union was successfully concluded at last week’s European Council. The deal allows the British government to deliver on its plans for a referendum on EU membership to be held in June 2016. While Prime Minister David Cameron will now need to convince British voters that he has negotiated a strong and credible package for the UK, other EU leaders also will seek to explain to their publics that they have secured their national and European interests. The contents of the deal actually allow for both claims.

More...

0.00 €

№76: Moldova’s European Integration: On Sick Leave?

№76: Moldova’s European Integration: On Sick Leave?

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; European Union; EU membership application; EU accession; political stability; European policy;

Moldova’s European integration has run out of steam. If a year ago discussion in Chisinau centred on Moldova’s possible submission of an EU membership application in 2015, today such perspectives are not even mentioned. A number of corruption scandals and the formation of a weak minority government have radically turned the tide in terms of political stability, economic development and reform-oriented European policy. Keeping in mind Chisinau’s demonstrated capabilities of quick progress over the past years, rather than retiring Moldova’s integration prospects, the EU should continue to back the country after the June local elections to put an end to this ailing period.

More...

0.00 €

№75: Ignore Them at Your Peril: The (Missing?) Strategic Narrative of ISIS

№75: Ignore Them at Your Peril: The (Missing?) Strategic Narrative of ISIS

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham; ISIS; extreme violence; radicalism; ISIS strategy; terrorism; security;

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is an organisation that is often misunderstood. Usually, it is seen as a barbaric and terrorist cult intent on acts of extreme violence, and an entity focused on achieving global objectives. At the same time, it presents itself as an opportunistic entity and is clearly telling us what its plans are as it attempts to transform itself away from a local and regional group, preoccupied with Iraq, Syria and the Arabian Peninsula, and is assured of its ongoing growth potential. The West and the anti-ISIS coalition should take stock of the ISIS strategic narrative, which in the past was too often disregarded, refrain from utilising quick fixes in combating the organisation, and prioritise denying it its growth opportunities.

More...

0.00 €

№74: Out of the Comfort Zone: Russia and the Nuclear Deal with Iran

№74: Out of the Comfort Zone: Russia and the Nuclear Deal with Iran

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; Iran; nuclear deal; s-300 missile; international nuclear deal; weapons market;

Beyond the headline-making S-300 missile deal, the international nuclear agreement with Iran poses a multifaceted strategic dilemma for Russia. Iran’s potential de-isolation will necessitate a speeded-up rebranding of Russia and more policy acrobatics, among which reacting to the new dynamics in the energy market will be the most challenging. It is becoming imperative for Moscow not to close options in the Middle East: adopt softer stances, make obscure moves, and avoid camps, especially the Iran- Syria one. In the post-Soviet neighbourhood, Iran’s clout, powered by a probable cycle of economic growth, is likely to increase, pushing Russia to make adjustments as well. While preoccupied by softly limiting Iran’s influence, Russia might use the de-isolation of Iran to legitimise the Eurasian Economic Union, seal off the Caspian Sea from the West and keep the rising Chinese influence in Central Asia in check.

More...

0.00 €

№73: Brexit Just a Bugaboo: Unravelling the British EU “Wish List”

№73: Brexit Just a Bugaboo: Unravelling the British EU “Wish List”

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka,Marta Stormowska,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Brexit; United Kingdom; European Union; EU reforms; EU institutions; UK’s demands; UK’s interests;

The lack of clarity about the British wish list for EU reform has long obfuscated the discussion not only about the potential Brexit ahead of the 7 May parliamentary election, but also about the plausibility of the UK’s demands regarding the Union. This strategic file fleshes out concrete Westminster postulates to Brussels and assesses their feasibility in light of the challenges facing the EU today. The evidence reveals that, while some of the claims are actually against the UK’s own interests, others are undertaken in practice by EU institutions.

More...

0.00 €

№72: Migrants ’R’ Us: Recommendations for a Sound European Migration Policy

№72: Migrants ’R’ Us: Recommendations for a Sound European Migration Policy

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka,Kinga Brudzińska,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: European migration policy; migrants; migration crisis; refugee crisis; immigrants as economic necessity; security policy;

The response of Europe, easily the wealthiest and most developed region in the world, to the tragedy of migrants trying to enter European states through Libya is inadequate. The governments and, to some extent, the societies fail to see that a moral and interest-based policy is in this case one and the same. In an aging Europe, more immigration has become an economic necessity, not only a moral choice. In the short term, the creation of a robust EU search and rescue force and expansion of joint operations to the Libyan coastal waters are urgently needed. All EU Member States should commit to facilitating a fairer allocation of refugees within the EU bloc. The refugee and immigration crisis has blatantly revealed the need for greater European integration in migration and security policies in general.

More...

0.00 €

№71: Straw in the Wind: State Aid for Nuclear Energy in the UK and Lessons for Visegrad Countries

№71: Straw in the Wind: State Aid for Nuclear Energy in the UK and Lessons for Visegrad Countries

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Miłosz Wiatrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; United Kingdom; state aid for nuclear energy; investments in nuclear builds; nuclear power plants; Visegrad Group;

With as many as 12 EU Member States currently considering investment in nuclear builds, the European Commission’s decision finding the UK’s support for the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant as being compatible with the EU state aid law was met with relief not only by Whitehall, but also by governments across the European Union. Yet latest EU–British settlement is a point of reference, not a silver bullet. EU countries interested in new nuclear power plants, including those in the Visegrad Group, should draw lessons from the Commission’s decision, and at the same time explore variant possibilities of state support.

More...

0.00 €

№70: The Role of Local Governments in National Foreign Policy in Poland

№70: The Role of Local Governments in National Foreign Policy in Poland

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Local governments; national foreign policy; Poland; international relations; European Union; local government diplomacy;

The international activity of local governments has become part of a larger process that includes the growing significance of non-governmental bodies in international relations, and the expanding role of local administration in the EU. Although cooperation between local governments is still focused on contacts between communities and sharing experience between particular local entities, more and more of their projects assume a broader international dimension. Such “local government diplomacy” has already become part of public diplomacy and can be used as a tool of foreign policy.

More...

0.00 €

№69: The Power to Influence Europe? Russia’s Grand Gas Strategy

№69: The Power to Influence Europe? Russia’s Grand Gas Strategy

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak,Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; gas strategy; energy policy; Russia’s energy export; energy resources; European Union; Russia’s influence on EU;

As most of Russia’s energy exports go to the European Union, both players are strongly interdependent. For Russia, energy resources, especially gas, are viewed as a tool to project power beyond its borders. However, Russia’s room for “gas manoeuvre” is constrained by its own capacities, the gas strategies of other players, and the EU’s ability to project its regulatory power. As Russia’s relations with Europe go beyond purely economic practices, and inevitably have geopolitical overtones, Europe should, in the short-term, try to limit the damage caused by the current application of Russian grand strategy; in the long-term, it should find out how to influence it, to its benefit.

More...

0.00 €

№68: Longing for a Boom: Prospects for Economic Development in Afghanistan

№68: Longing for a Boom: Prospects for Economic Development in Afghanistan

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; economic development; military operations in Afghanistan; rebuilding infrastructure; economic governance; economic policy; economic assistance; development of agriculture; foreign investors;

The unrelenting military operations carried out in Afghanistan since the end of the 1970s brought about unprecedented devastation of the existing infrastructure and determined the abject economic condition of this state. Currently, the economic situation is improving, although Afghanistan is still facing a series of structural and other barriers (pervasive corruption, weak economic governance, and a shadow opium economy) to its growth, while reconstruction is still slowed down by continuing military conflict in the country. In the short-term perspective, Afghanistan will not be able to develop without serious economic assistance from donors. However, it may improve its economic standing in the longterm by supporting the development of traditional agricultural economy and creating conditions for local and foreign investors, which may provide capital and necessary know-how for exploring its vast mineral potential.

More...

0.00 €

№67: Norwegian Energy Policy in the Changing EU Environment: What Poland Can Learn for Developing Its Shale Gas Industry

№67: Norwegian Energy Policy in the Changing EU Environment: What Poland Can Learn for Developing Its Shale Gas Industry

Author(s): Lidia Puka,Ole Gunnar Austvik,Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Norway; energy policy; European Union; Poland; gas industry; energy resources management; EU energy market regulations; sustainable development;

Globally, many countries have become victims of the resource curse paradox and/or Dutch Disease after discovering and exploring hydrocarbon resources. The Norwegian experience, however, suggests that the impact of petroleum activities on the overall economy may increase over time, and not as a curse, but as a blessing. Due to good resource management, cost savings, and investment, Norway remains a model of sustainable development among resource rich countries, and, so far, a case for retaining strong government participation, control and supervision within the market regulations of the European Union. Although it is impossible to transpose the Norwegian model directly, EU countries that wish to develop an extractive sector, as Poland does, could learn from it, not least in elements such as private-public cooperation in a transparent institutional framework and strengthening of government competence, engagement, and control.

More...

0.00 €

№66: Poland and France: The (Un)Limited Strategic Partnership

№66: Poland and France: The (Un)Limited Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Nathan Dufour,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; France; strategic partnership; French-Polish cooperation; security and defence; European Union; military policy;

Very optimistic declarations regarding the possible emergence of a new Franco-Polish engine in security and defence matters seem to a great extent unrealistic. Both countries differ too much to become the closest allies in the EU, from the size of their militaries and defence industries to strategic culture. In addition, the short-term posture adopted by both players in response to the multi-layered repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis means that both Poland and France are having a hard time envisaging the next steps forward. This being said, exploring the reasons why these two key European defence players are willing to cooperate can only help both partners to get the most out of it. There are some areas in which the Franco-Polish duo can, and should, achieve a lot.

More...

0.00 €

№65: Azerbaijan and the EU: Prospects for Partnership Beyond Energy

№65: Azerbaijan and the EU: Prospects for Partnership Beyond Energy

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Azerbaijan; European Union; regional security; EU-Azerbaijan cooperation; strategic partnership; energy resources;

Azerbaijan, which until recently has been a key EU partner in the Caucasus, now adopts increasingly anti-Western rhetoric in line with Russia’s criticism of the West. The government in Baku may calculate that getting closer to resurgent Russia is a way to enhance its regional security and even to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, Russia cannot replace the EU as Azerbaijan’s main economic partner, and the alternative to cooperation with the West would be self-isolation. Development of EU-Azerbaijan cooperation is a must for Baku and a regional priority for Brussels, no matter how tough their current relations are. However, the launch of the EU’s strategic partnership for modernisation with Azerbaijan must be dependent upon ceasing repression of civil society by authorities in Baku and the start of serious reforms.

More...

0.00 €

№64: Norwegian and Polish Security Sector Reform Experiences from Afghanistan

№64: Norwegian and Polish Security Sector Reform Experiences from Afghanistan

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Norway; Poland; security sector reforms; experiences from Afghanistan; NATO, EU security policy; conflicts;

In the coming decade, NATO and EU security is likely to be challenged by the ongoing conflicts and potential instability in different parts of Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East and North Africa. Both organisations are capable of supporting stability through different forms of cooperation with their partners but they could improve their impact significantly by closer collaboration. One of the most promising platforms for such a unity of effort could be Security Sector Reform (SSR)—a vital measure for building sustainable peace. Both NATO and the EU could use the experience of Norway, a NATO member, and Poland, a member of both the EU and NATO and a country that contributed significant military and civilian resources to the stability and development of Afghanistan between 2001 and 2014. Although the precise results of the SSR process in Afghanistan remain contested, the lessons hard learnt by both countries should be regarded as a noteworthy asset, not least when it comes to building closer cooperation between Poland and Norway during future SSR missions.

More...