CEEOL - Search Result

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№1: EU External Energy Policy – Between Market and Strategic Interests

Author(s): Ernest Wyciszkiewicz / Language(s): English

The EU external energy policy is still in the making and the ultimate outcome is as yet uncertain. The process was launched by the European Commission in 2006 under the catchy slogan “to speak with one voice” on issues regarding relations with the major oil and gas producers, consumers and transit countries. In order to reach this ambitious goal two obvious preconditions will need to be met: (1) achieving genuine coherence between the relatively well-developed internal and the underdeveloped external aspects of energy policy, and (2) overcoming national discrepancies to allow member states to internalize Community objectives and interests. True unity does not depend on intergovernmental political consensus solely. Many technical, physical, economic, regulatory and legal conditions regarding the shape of the energy system and the market have to be met as well. That is why a well-functioning, competitive internal market is seen as a prerequisite for the emergence of a real external energy policy. Equally important is the establishment of an effective common foreign policy within the EU governed by a proper institutional and legal framework. Otherwise, any effort to integrate policies where national interests prevail would inevitably fail. The likely result would be an imitative policy based on the lowest common denominator, and sensitive and troublesome issues would be put aside.

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№10: New Strategy for Afghanistan? Political Reform – First!

Author(s): Piotr Krawczyk / Language(s): English

The manipulated presidential election of August 2009 has provided new rationale for increasingly negative assessments of the situation in Afghanistan. The Afghans’ growing mistrust of the authorities and the administration looms, alongside the insurgents’ activities, as the country’s gravest problem. The sources of the state’s illness include not only the dismal economy and a lack of security, but a dysfunctional political system divorced from the country’s social realities. The system breeds corruption and conflicts and obstructs the discharge of the state’s fundamental functions. It follows that much of Afghanistan’s instability has internal political roots which, unless removed, will render enduring improvement of the country’s situation impossible.

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№11: A Broker, not a Banker: How the EU Can Help the Middle East Peace Process

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The peace process in the Middle East is about to collapse. When at the beginning of 2009 it seemed that the major force – the United States – was coming back into play, expectations rose. However, 11 months into Barack Obama’s presidency there is little, if any, hope left that the strategy of the new American administration can wield any positive results. This diplomatic standstill is detrimental to the international community’s interests because it serves extremists and, if sustained, could soon lead to an escalation of tensions. The US, weakened by the economic crisis and intensely engaged in Afghanistan, would benefit from renewed involvement by the European Union. The way forward in the Middle East peace process is to bring additional mediators onto the field to act in concert with the US. There are no guarantees of success, but so far the EU’s potential to impact the Middle Eastern situation has never been seriously tested.

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№12: Poland’s Priorities in the Debate on a New Strategic Concept for NATO

Author(s): Marek Madej / Language(s): English

The NATO debate on a new strategic concept is entering yet another stage, one probably crucial to the ultimate outcome of the whole process. Early in May 2010, the Group of Experts will submit their recommendations on the nature, scope, and main provisions of the document. These will serve as the basis for the member states to begin a discussion, led by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, on the shape of a new strategic concept. At that time, the states will make known (in more detail than they have to date) their positions on the different issues addressed by that document, in particular on such vital—and controversial—issues as: the hierarchy of the Alliance’s tasks, the extent of its engagement in the non-military dimensions of security, its military transformation, its internal reforms, its relations with partners (including Russia), and its enlargement. Doubtless, Poland will also be among those states who are vocal about their positions. It is worthwhile to show, from a Polish perspective, what the fundamental assumptions and priorities of the strategy can—or should—be.

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№13: The British Strategic Defence and Security Review: Drivers, Issues and Possible Implications for NATO

Author(s): Gareth Chappell / Language(s): English

By the end of the month, the results of the much anticipated British ‘Strategic Defence and Security Review’ are expected to have been announced. There is likely to be no revolution in British strategic thinking. Britain’s approach to defence and security policy will largely remain consistent. Still, a number of factors could force Britain to consider re-balancing its bilateral defence and security relationships. Further, economic constraints combined with a reduced political and public appetite for military intervention overseas means that Britain will likely do less of this in the future. The renewal of the UK’s nuclear deterrent based on the Trident missile system is under threat.

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№14: Libya: Too Hot to Handle

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

The rapidly evolving events around the crisis in Libya will be the first test of this kind for the European countries that lead diplomatic efforts against Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi. France’s symbolic first strike in operation “Odyssey Dawn” was quickly followed by an American lead offensive. The American administration, deeply involved in Afghanistan and still effectively responsible for Iraq’s security, wanted to avert the impression that they were leading yet another military offensive against a mostly Muslim country. However, the crisis shows deep divisions within the international community, NATO, the EU and the arrayed coalition itself. It is a high-risk but also a possible high-gain type of operation although there is not enough evidence to suggest that Qaddafi has completely lost popular support or that the opposition speaks on behalf of the majority of Libyans. As the awakening wave is sweeping the Middle East, events in Libya set a precedent for other Arab countries and citizens, torn between their quest for dignity and reluctance to accept outside intervention.

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№15: Strategic Vacuum in Central Asia—a Case for European Engagement?

Author(s): Tomasz Sikorski / Language(s): English

An interesting phenomenon in Central Asia—Halford Mackinder’s pivotal area of the heartland—can be observed. The great political powers, when it comes to action in the region, seem to lack power at all. The U.S. assigns all its attention to the war in Afghanistan. Russia, painfully hit by the economic crisis, recognises that it is terribly difficult to rebuild its erstwhile zone of influence. Also China is not warmly welcomed in the region. What is then left? It seems that in the foreseeable future Central Asia is not going to be a scene of the so-called New Great Game. On the contrary, the region will be somewhat abandoned by the main political powers. The purpose of this paper is to prove the abandonment thesis, predict what is going to happen and propose recommendations for the European Union to act effectively in the new situation.

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№16: Reductions of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Unbinding the Gordian Knot

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

With new momentum for nuclear disarmament and arms control following U.S. President Barack Obama’s 2009 Prague speech, questions about NATO’s nuclear policy and posture escaped from an “underground storage site” and regained a prominent place in the debate within NATO. The discussions, which accompanied works on NATO’s Strategic Concept, focused to a large extent on the future deployment in Europe of U.S. tactical (non-strategic) nuclear weapons. Currently, about 180 U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombs, deliverable by specifically adapted aircraft (Dual Capable Aircraft, DCA), are stored in six bases in five European countries (Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey). On the one hand, reductions and the ultimate withdrawal of these weapons have been perceived as a solution to the question of how NATO can reduce further the role of nuclear weapons and move closer to the objective of a world free of nuclear weapons. On the other hand, consideration about how and under what circumstances those tactical weapons could be reduced in a way that does not weaken the credibility of NATO’s deterrence and the transatlantic link remain of crucial importance.

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№17: Institutions and Externalities: Two EU Strategic Dilemmas

Author(s): Leszek Jesień / Language(s): English

The European Union is at a turning point in the process of the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty. Assuming a calming of EU internal economic affairs (the euro and the fiscal crises), it may gradually enter the path towards real EU responsibility on a global stage, of course within the limited competence given by the treaty. For member states, it may indicate a need to adapt to a new way of exercising political leadership within the EU, as well as a necessity to introduce changes in the operation of their administrations and procedures used for the sake of their foreign policies.

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№18: Shades of Grey: Poland’s Example for a Middle East in Transition

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

It is not at all clear if or how a country’s experience in systemic transition—from authoritarian to democratic rule—can serve as a lesson to another country in transition. Positivists would claim the 20th century provides a plethora of examples about how to conduct a transition. Sceptics would point at differences in each and every case: in the character and condition of the economy, a lack of adequate political structures or different cultural and historic backgrounds. Tunisia and Egypt, however, are at this extremely precarious point where they will understandably want to make decisions on their own but will be at the same time looking carefully at the experience and competence of others because the democratization process inevitably requires many practical solutions.

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№19: The Muslim Brotherhood in a Post-Dictator Reality

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is one of the main beneficiaries of the socio-political changes in the Arab world. Its pragmatic Islamism is gaining widespread popularity in the region, as expressed at the ballot box as parties either formed by the Brotherhood itself (such as the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party) or inspired by it (such as the Tunisian Ennahda) dominate elections in the Arab world. After a turbulent history spanning almost 90 years, the Brotherhood is finally becoming a force in the world of political power. Such an advance offers a unique chance for the organisation, which in effect functions mostly as a confederated alliance of social movements operating in different Middle Eastern and North African countries, to develop and grow. However, it also carries risks associated with newly gained political responsibility, and the need to strike a balance between some of its members’ and followers’ cultural, economic, political and social expectations and the extent to which these could be addressed and fulfilled by, for example, the Brotherhood-dominated government of Egypt.

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№20: Poland and Spain: Partnership for a Stronger Europe

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek,Richard Youngs,Cristina Manzano,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

The European Union of today is being significantly challenged by the ongoing economic crisis and doubts about the future of the European project. In this moment of trial, the main response of the European countries should be to create a more united and stronger Europe. Therefore, the EU needs genuine advocates of both further integration and greater solidarity amongst EU members. Poland and Spain are perfectly suited to their roles as the most vocal defenders of a strong EU. They share the experience of democratic transitions intrinsically linked to their engagement in European integration and are the clearest examples of the benefits that come with EU membership. Their status as two of the six largest EU Member States gives them a valuable position to influence the debate on the future of the EU as well as introduce proposals for treaty changes.

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№21: Poland-India: Potential for a Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The intensity and quality of political and economic cooperation between Poland and India have not reached their full potential in the past 20 years, despite largely positive historical relations between these nations. Both are among the top twenty world economies, and are among the political leaders in their respective regions, so Poland and India must now explore ways to upgrade bilateral cooperation in the emerging multi-polar world. The success of economic transformations initiated in the early 90s, and stable economic growth experienced in both countries in recent years despite the global financial crisis, alongside the growing political influence of Poland in the European Union on the one hand and India’s rise on the world stage on the other, suggest a complementary relationship between these countries and promise extra benefits from closer links. The idea of a strategic partnership – an instrument deliberately employed in both countries’ foreign policies in recent years – now deserves to be given serious consideration in New Delhi and Warsaw.

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№22: Not As Smart As It Could Be: the NATO Smart Defence Initiative—Chicago and Beyond

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Prompted by austerity-driven cuts in defence budgets and calls by the U.S. to distribute the burden for common defence more evenly across the Atlantic, for the last 15 months NATO members have been developing the Smart Defence Initiative. Launched by Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in February 2011, the initiative aims to “pool and share capabilities, to set the right priorities, and to better coordinate our efforts”. In other words, it is about seeking opportunities for more intense and cost-effective defence cooperation amongst the Allies. The NATO summit in Chicago delivered the first results as a multitude of cooperative projects was endorsed by the Allies in the so-called “Chicago Defence Package”. It involves the exchange of experiences and lessons learnt, joint education and training of forces, the bundling of military assets such as airplanes, as well as joint NATO-wide investment programmes to develop state-of-the-art defence systems.

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№23: How to Upgrade Poland’s Approach to the Western Balkans? Ideas for the Polish Presidency of the V4

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Ever since the European Union expressed its commitment and support to the Western Balkans states’ ambitions to join the Community, the region has for years constituted the central scene for EU enlargement and Common Foreign and Security Policy. Yet, some of the Balkan countries also wish to be included in NATO. Processes linked to accession to both organisations have shown that each country differs in its development and willingness to reform and that there are political difficulties regardless of these countries’ attitudes towards the EU or NATO. These factors make the Balkan agenda exceptionally complex and the relationship between the states and the EU and NATO filled with a range of ups and downs.

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№24: Republicans on U.S. Foreign Policy: Romney’s Reluctant Embrace of Neoconservatism

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

If positions taken by a presidential candidate during the campaign are any indications of the kind of policies that would be implemented in case of electoral success, then Republican Mitt Romney’s foreign and security policy agenda could be labeled as neoconservative. On the campaign trail, Romney has repeatedly invoked or alluded to concepts associated with this strand of Republican thinking about the United States’ role in the world, including so-called moral clarity as a key foreign policy driver, unrivalled military capabilities, seeking and ensuring maximum freedom to manoeuvre for a transformative (if not revolutionary) global strategy without displaying too much deference to multilateralism, standing up to (as opposed to seeking accommodation with) America’s rivals, and preempting growing threats to national security to prevent them from becoming full-blown crises.

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№25: Emerging Latin America: A Case for Increasing Poland’s Interest in the Region

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

With the advancing “multipolarisation” of the world order, accelerated by the recent global financial crisis, Latin America is becoming one of the centres of international economic relations. High growth rates, relative resilience to the crisis and broadening business opportunities in the region have meant an improvement in the attractiveness of countries there, particularly Brazil, the sixth largest economy in the world. The changes in Latin America have found resonance in the policies of the largest countries of the European Union. The Polish government, too, should follow these moves to advance the internationalisation of domestic companies, strengthen Poland’s international position and take steps to become Latin America’s partner of choice amongst the countries that have joined the EU since 2004.

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№26: Libya and Syria: Responsibility to Protect at a Crossroads

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

The Arab Spring, especially the developments in Libya and Syria, revealed the persistent problem of a lack of appropriate and legally acceptable measures the international community could use to intervene in specific countries where people die because of violent acts by the authorities there. Although Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is seen as a new idea, it can be regarded as a manifestation of a trend that has already begun to affect the present but will have a major impact in the future. When the intervention in Libya started, it seemed that the importance of R2P would grow and exert increasing influence on international relations. The real significance of the UN response to the Libyan crisis was that for the first time the implementation and representation in practice of the R2P concept became real. However, it is quite clear now that the current Syrian crisis can serve as a catalyst for discussion on the necessary conditions for a military intervention, thus either strengthening the underlying trend of R2P or blocking it for years.

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№27: The Perseverance of the Crisis in Mali

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

After yet another Tuareg rebellion, followed by a virtual takeover of the northern parts of the country by various terrorist organisations and a highly destabilising coup d’état, Mali finds itself engulfed in a protracted political, security and humanitarian crisis. The worrying series of events in Mali has brought the country to the attention of international actors, including the European Union (EU), which is concerned about the lack of stability and security in the Sahel, an area adjacent to the immediate EU neighbourhood. Unfortunately, the majority of the foreign ideas on how to address Mali’s crisis lack an enduring commitment to improve the situation on the ground. Unless the international proposals are in line with the UN Secretary General’s recommendations from 29 November 2012 and veer towards long-term solutions, Mali is likely to remain destabilised for the foreseeable future.

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№28: Arms Control During Obama’s Second Term: What May the U.S. Want and How Can Europeans Contribute?

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Łukasz Kulesa / Language(s): English

During his second term in office, U.S. President Barack Obama is likely to continue the implementation of his ambitious arms control agenda. In the European context, this will require further work on the redefinition of the extended deterrence relationship with the European NATO allies, which currently involves U.S. nuclear weapons stationed in Europe. However, the programme of work cannot be limited to the nuclear file, as at present in Europe both missile defence and conventional arms remain important subjects, both in need of innovative arms control approaches. The role of Europeans does not have to be limited to merely supporting U.S. actions. They can provide their ideas and also take a leadership role in some areas. The lack of a unified position of Europeans can, however, block or obstruct U.S. initiatives.

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Series:PISM Strategic File