Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Stability of Iran and the Regional Situation
Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Stability of Iran and the Regional Situation

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
Subject(s): Governance, Government/Political systems, International relations/trade, Welfare systems, Health and medicine and law
Published by: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Iran; stability of Iran; disfunction of the state; Iran’s ruling elite; collapse of Iran’s theocracy; Iranian response to pandemic;
Summary/Abstract: Iran’s official figures on cases and deaths from COVID-19 (the disease resulting from coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2) do not reflect the real scale of the pandemic in that country, which might be among the hardest hit in the world. The pandemic will deepen the economic crisis and disfunction of the state, becoming a challenge to Iran’s ruling elite. The regime might survive thanks to the security apparatus and, in parallel, continue its support of Shia militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the Syrian government. Only the succession of power after Ali Khamenei will be the real test of the coherence of the Iranian elite, and in case of disruption, it might result in the collapse of Iran’s theocracy.

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