Series:PISM Bulletin

The Persecution of the Rohingya: Challenges to the Transformation of Myanmar

The Persecution of the Rohingya: Challenges to the Transformation of Myanmar

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Burma / Myanmar; Muslims

The Myanmar army operation in Rakhine State in the last month has forced more than 400,000 civilians of the Rohingya minority to flee to neighbouring Bangladesh. The military actions were condemned internationally and accusations that the government was accepting “ethnic cleansing” arose. The situation must be viewed in the broader context of the political transformation of the country and the peace process with its ethnic minorities. The actions show that real power in the country still rests with the army, which might use the crisis to stop the democratisation process ongoing since 2011. Myanmar’s foreign partners need to insist on the return of the refugees and full integration into society in line with the recommendations of the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State.

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Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan

Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kurds; Turkey; Iraq; Middle East

Although the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is one of Turkey’s closest partners, Ankara disapproved of this week’s independence referendum. Yet, Turkey did not take actions that would have forced the Iraqi Kurds to postpone or cancel the vote. That suggests Turkish politicians’ stance on the referendum was dictated by domestic political considerations and will harden only if the situation with Iraqi Kurdistan constitutes a threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity.

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Israel and the Kurdish Question

Israel and the Kurdish Question

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Kurds; Iraq; Middle East; Turkey

Relations with the Kurds are an important element of Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East. It particularly applies to Israel’s relations with Iraqi Kurds, who are considered important regional allies. Israel is the only state in the region that openly endorsed the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) independence referendum and perceives the establishment of a Kurdish state as a chance to strengthen Israel’s position in the Middle East. Israeli policy towards the Kurds remains closely linked to relations between Israel and Turkey and Iran.

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The FDP as a Partner in the German Coalition Government: European Policy Perspective

The FDP as a Partner in the German Coalition Government: European Policy Perspective

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; political parties

There is a good chance that the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) will win seats in the Bundestag during Germany’s September general election. European policy issues, including reform of EU institutions, deepening of integration, a multi-speed Europe, and the continuation of a restrictive financial approach in the eurozone, are an important part of the party’s agenda. If the FDP creates a coalition government with the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), these ideas could provoke some tension in Germany’s relations with its EU partners.

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Role of “Panda Diplomacy” in China’s Foreign Policy

Role of “Panda Diplomacy” in China’s Foreign Policy

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; diplomacy

China’s “panda diplomacy”—loaning the animals to other countries—has become one of its key instruments to enhance its image. Chairman Xi Jinping eagerly uses the practice to alleviate tensions in bilateral ties and reduce partners’ concerns about his country’s activities. What is more, China utilises this instrument both to signal dissatisfaction with other countries’ policies and to highlight the importance of a given country to Chinese diplomacy, as well as to acquire capital and know-how through joint panda research.

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Prospects of an Agreement between China and the Holy See

Prospects of an Agreement between China and the Holy See

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; religion

China has signalled its readiness to normalise relations with the Holy See. That would mean both the underground and formal state-controlled Catholic factions in China would come together. For China, it would facilitate the Chinese church’s support for the country’s social policies, create a unified, visible church organisation, and papal recognition of bishop nominations. Normalisation, though, would also require the Holy See to withdraw its recognition of Taiwan as a separate state. The improvement of relations between the two may also benefit Polish-Chinese contacts, in which the position of Catholics in China has been a controversial topic.

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Turkey’s Purchase of the S-400 System: Prospects and Consequences

Turkey’s Purchase of the S-400 System: Prospects and Consequences

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; armament; Security

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claims that Turkey has signed an agreement with Russia on the purchase of the S-400 air and missile defence system. Currently, this statement should be regarded as an element of pressure on the NATO Allies, especially on the United States. However, in the light of tensions between Turkey and its Western partners, completion of the S-400 transaction cannot be ruled out. Finalisation of the contract would bring Turkey and Russia closer, and raise questions about Turkey’s role as a loyal Ally in NATO.

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Israel and the Gulf States—the Nature of Secret Cooperation

Israel and the Gulf States—the Nature of Secret Cooperation

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Saudi Arabia; Middle East; Palestinian-Israeli conflict; Persian Gulf

Israel has for many years maintained undisclosed contacts with the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf, despite the lack of official diplomatic relations. The foundation of the cooperation, especially with Saudi Arabia, is the fear of Iran’s growing dominance in the Middle East. Despite the convergence of interests, normalisation of relations remains unlikely and is highly dependent on the resolution of the Palestinian question.

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Łódź, EXPO 2022 Candidate: Opportunities for Poland and Central Europe

Łódź, EXPO 2022 Candidate: Opportunities for Poland and Central Europe

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Europe; Poland

Łódź is a candidate to host Specialised EXPO 2022. It proposes the flagship event “City Re: Invented,” a newly created city. The theme of change of a post-industrial centre refers to the successful transformation of Poland and other countries of Central Europe. The exhibition provides the host country an opportunity to present itself as an innovative state that uses new technologies to manage development. The final selection of the EXPO host city will be made in November. Łódź’s campaign and its international support efforts are entering the final, most intensive phase.

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Iran: A Challenge for Polish Diplomacy and Energy Companies

Iran: A Challenge for Polish Diplomacy and Energy Companies

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; Poland; diplomacy

After recent elections in Iran, President Hassan Rouhani has secured power. His re-election means Iran will continue the policy of breaking out of its economic isolation and luring Western investment, especially in oil and gas exploration and production. On the other hand, Iran’s actions and the tensions with the U.S. increase investment risk, which must be considered by European companies, including Polish ones.

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Hungarian Presidency of the Visegrad Group

Hungarian Presidency of the Visegrad Group

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; Visegrad Group; Central Europe

On 1 July, Hungary took over from Poland the annual presidency of the Visegrad Group. Its motto, "V4 Connects", is meant to express both the importance of regional infrastructure development and group cohesion. Its presidency will work to facilitate more efficient use of EU digitisation and innovation programmes by V4 members. However, the presidency programme does not contain a common answer to the issue of deepening European integration. With an ongoing election campaign, Hungary might attempt to politicize its V4 cooperation.

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The Trump Administration’s Latin America Policy

The Trump Administration’s Latin America Policy

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Latin America; South America; USA

Trump administration policy has prompted concerns among Latin American countries about how their relations with the U.S. will develop. The negative reactions stem from the U.S. president’s decisions on weakening trade commitments, restricting immigration, and reducing foreign aid. Continuing such actions will only increase China’s influence in Latin America. It also will provide opportunities for greater engagement by other Asian countries, as well as the EU and Russia. Consequently, the U.S.’s traditional leadership in the region will continue to wane.

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China’s Internet Policy

China’s Internet Policy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; cyberspace

China treats the internet as an arena for global competition. It believes that EU and U.S. support for unrestricted access to information on the global level endangers the stability of its political regime. China has strengthened control over internet usage within its borders to restrict information flow. It also uses the economic expansion of Chinese IT companies abroad to make its position on cyberspace stronger and its draft International Code of Conduct for Information Security is contradictory to the EU and U.S. concepts. China’s actions require EU resistance to defend global open internet and economic freedom.

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U.S. Policy toward Iran and Prospects for the Nuclear Deal

U.S. Policy toward Iran and Prospects for the Nuclear Deal

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; nuclear weapons; USA; Security

Within the Trump administration, there is still the prevailing opinion on the necessity to continue the “two-track” policy approach towards Iran. It is based on decoupling and separating the issue of the Iranian nuclear programme from other issues with this country, including its ballistic missile programme and sponsoring terrorism. However, President Trump has repeatedly signalled his willingness to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement signed in 2015. This decision would cause tension between the U.S. and Europe in the context of countering nuclear proliferation and expanding economic cooperation with Iran.

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U.S. Sanctions on Russia

U.S. Sanctions on Russia

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; sanctions; USA

The U.S. Congress has extended sanctions on Russia, accused of interfering with the American elections in 2016. In doing so, Congress also sought to limit President Donald Trump’s ability to abolish them. The Russian Foreign Ministry later ordered 755 American diplomats to leave the territory of the Russian Federation. This unintended effect of the new sanctions sets the stage for a new round of disputes between the U.S. and some European countries, including views of the planned Nord Stream 2 (NS2) pipeline project.

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EU Relations with Australia: Time for a Strategic Partnership

EU Relations with Australia: Time for a Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Australia; Europe; European Union; Free Trade Agreement

Australia is one of the important political and economic partners of the European Union. The UK’s exit from the EU risks undermining the traditional ties and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. global leadership in the face of China’s growing role requires closer cooperation with Australia. That is why the EU should recognise the country as a strategic partner and seek the swift conclusion of free-trade-agreement (FTA) negotiations. By supporting increased EU engagement, along with stronger bilateral cooperation, Poland may become a more attractive partner to Australia.

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China’s Role in Hungarian Foreign Policy

China’s Role in Hungarian Foreign Policy

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Hungary

In May, China raised bilateral relations with Hungary to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Hungarian involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s foreign policy approach aimed at increasing access to eastern markets, attracting foreign direct investment, and further strengthening economic cooperation with China. However, so far, the cooperation has not had the intended effect. New Chinese FDI in Hungary has decreased significantly in the last few years and nothing indicates a reversal of this trend.

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New Electoral Law in Moldova Criticised as a Tool to Keep Power

New Electoral Law in Moldova Criticised as a Tool to Keep Power

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova

On 19 June, the Venice Commission and the Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the OSCE issued a negative review of a draft electoral law in Moldova. The government says the draft bill is the result of parliamentary consensus. In fact, it has been designed to keep the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) and its unpopular leader, Vlad Plahotniuc, in power after next year’s parliamentary elections. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that, if the draft becomes law, the EU will tighten the terms of financial assistance offered to Moldova.

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Prospects for the Negotiations on Brexit

Prospects for the Negotiations on Brexit

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: United Kingdom; European Union

In June, the UK government entered into talks with the EU on the conditions for leaving the bloc. With that, the government ended speculation about the possibility of stopping Brexit that appeared shortly after the parliamentary election. The EU’s consistent position on Brexit allowed it to impose on the British the mode of the talks and the priorities of the first phase of the negotiations. Divisions in the negotiating strategy among the main political forces in the UK may make the progress of the Brexit talks difficult and increases the risk of a no-deal scenario.

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“Unity through Balance:” Estonia’s EU Council Presidency

“Unity through Balance:” Estonia’s EU Council Presidency

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Estonia; EU Council presidency

On 1 July, Estonia took up the presidency of the EU a half year earlier than planned, replacing the UK, which has begun its separation negotiations with the bloc. Estonia will try to take advantage of issues essential to the EU agenda, such as the innovation economy, digitisation, and cybersecurity, to pursue its own interests in the European forum. On the other hand, the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit gives Estonia the chance to become more actively involved in external EU activities. However, the effectiveness of the presidency depends on the results of its efforts to coordinate the work of the Union in relation to the mass-migration crisis and the future of EU finances.

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