Scenarios for Russia’s Withdrawal from the INF Treaty
Scenarios for Russia’s Withdrawal from the INF Treaty

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec
Subject(s): Governance, International relations/trade, Security and defense, Military policy
Published by: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych
Keywords: Russian Federation; Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty; Russia’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty; NATO’s Eastern Flank;
Summary/Abstract: Russia can put on hold its formal withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty until the United States does it first or it could use another available opportunity, such as the coming announcement of the operational readiness of the U.S. missile defence facility in Romania. No matter when Moscow decides to do so, it will blame Russia’s withdrawal on the U.S. and its NATO allies. To discourage Russia from operational deployment of the missiles, forbidden now under the treaty, the Alliance should commence consultations on specific response options. It should also intensify its strategic communication to make it clear that the demise of the INF treaty would be the sole result of Russia’s actions.

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