Publisher: NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence

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THE USE OF GEO-TARGETING DURING ELECTIONS

THE USE OF GEO-TARGETING DURING ELECTIONS

Author(s): Nora Biteniece,Kristina Van Sant / Language(s): English

Keywords: Indonesia; Finland; Facebook; Instagram; Youtube; Google; Geo-targeting; presidential elections; adaptation of technology;

Internet users around the globe demand different information and experiences that correspond to their geography. The most immediate difference is language: people want news, entertainment and services in their own language. Other things that vary by geography are culture, currency, climate and consumer norms. Geo-targeting is a common tool for targeting information to a specific geographical area and is widely used in digital marketing, in combination with information gleaned from available user data about consumer preferences, to deliver location-specific content. Itis a cost-effective way to match information with consumers.

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ARCTIC NARRATIVES AND POLITICAL VALUES: ARCTIC STATES, CHINA AND NATO

ARCTIC NARRATIVES AND POLITICAL VALUES: ARCTIC STATES, CHINA AND NATO

Author(s): Iona Mackenzie Allan / Language(s): English

Keywords: Political values; Canada; Russia; International relations; Denmark; Greenland; Finland; Iceland; Norway; Sweden; USA; China; NATO;

The following research is based on discourse analysis of official statements, speeches and policy documents published by the governments of the eight Arctic states as well as China and the NATO alliance between January 2012 and June 2019. This document provides a brief summary of the key narratives promoted by each of these 10 Arctic actors, drawing particular attention towards how they frame their identity in the Arctic (self), how they conceptualise the region (region) and how they frame relations with other Arctic stakeholders (others). The narratives identified in the discourse were coded according to the different national power dimensions and political values that they communicate. This summary is intended to give an over-view of the narrative landscape of the Arctic as indication of key national interests and areas of strategic priorities for each of these 10 Arctic actors.

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MANIPULATION ECOSYSTEM OF SOCIAL MESSAGING PLATFORMS

MANIPULATION ECOSYSTEM OF SOCIAL MESSAGING PLATFORMS

Author(s): Marina Paramonova,Rueban Manokara / Language(s): English

Keywords: Security risks of social messaging; Impersonation; Cyber attacks; global and open marketplace; Mass messaging services;

Social messaging platforms started as analternative to the Short Messaging Service (SMS), pitching themselves as faster and cheaper, with additional features such as the ability to send documents and media securely. These features granted users a level of encryption that meant no third party, including the messaging services themselves, was able to read the messages sent. Today, social messaging platforms account for a combined 4.1 billion users and social messaging has become the most frequent activity a person carries out online. Similarly to major social media platforms that are being artificially inflated and manipulated for financial and political gain, social messaging platforms are equally vulnerable to the threat of exploitation.

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CAMOUFLAGE FOR THE DIGITAL DOMAIN

CAMOUFLAGE FOR THE DIGITAL DOMAIN

Author(s): Sebastian Bay,Michael Bátrla,Henrik Twetman / Language(s): English

Keywords: Digital domain; Armed forces; malicious use of digital information; geolocation; digital toolbox;

The digital environment is an increasingly important dimension of the contemporary battle space. While we have been focusing our attention on cyber-threats and systemic resilience, less attention has been paid to challenges arising from the malicious use of openly available digital information regarding military organisations. An adversary does not need significant resources or advanced cyber capabilities to pose a threat in the digital domain, when social media and digital technologies are easily accessible, providing information and infrastructure that can be exploited by anyone with access to a computer and an internet connection. For example, open-source methods can be used to geolocate military units, social media can be used to augment influence activities, and social data can be scraped for valuable intelligence.

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DISINFORMATION AS A GLOBAL PROBLEM – REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES

DISINFORMATION AS A GLOBAL PROBLEM – REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES

Author(s): Rachael Lim / Language(s): English

Keywords: Malicious use of data; Disinformation; European Union; Southeast Asia; Cyber domain; Targeting Global Navigation Satellite Systems; Attacks through routers or Virtual Private Networks;

This research project discusses disinformation in the European Union (EU) and Southeast Asia (SEA). The report examines the characterisation and context of disinformation, provides an overview of its creators and its circulation, where creation refers to production and its underlying motivations and circulation refers to the different ways it is disseminated, amplified and sustained, and rounds up with a discussion on foreseeable trends. It finds that disinformation is ultimately a national security problem, and any assessment of, and response to, disinformation must be formulated with developments in other domains.

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THE LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF MALICIOUS EXPLOITATION OF SOCIAL MEDIA

THE LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF MALICIOUS EXPLOITATION OF SOCIAL MEDIA

Author(s): Ēriks K. Selga / Language(s): English

Keywords: Internet Intermediary Governance Frameworks; EU; US; Monitoring and filtering of content; Malicious exploatation of social media;

The growing use of digital media is awell-observed phenomenon, with 90% of adults regularly accessing the Internet, and youth use averaging at least six hours a day. Together with the increasing digitalization of private and public sector models, digital space is creating a parallel space of social activity. This activity functions in a decentralized structure and across a variety of Websites and platforms, each under its own legal regimes and stakeholders. Information flows are filtered through a few ‘points of control,’ directly impacting interaction between individuals, sovereigns, and other entities. Through popular use, social media and video platforms are becoming especially important gatekeepers. Such platforms have morphed into concentrated arenas for public discourse and attention. While this brings many benefits, it also presents a gamut of new digital manipulation threats which necessitate governance.

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RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

Author(s): Rufin Zamfir / Language(s): English

Keywords: Western Balkans; Euro-Atlantic affiliations; Albania; BiH; Kosovo; Montenegro; North Macedonia; Serbia; Ethnic tension; Yugoslav wars; NATO;

The Western Balkans (WB) have come into the international spotlight as an arena for big power competition. In their foreign policy orientation, the region’s six countries — Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia — all share Euro-Atlantic affiliations, although the degree of affiliation varies. Internally, functional and structural weaknesses — whether Albania’s legacy of an isolationist communist dictatorship or the consequence of the violent dissolution of Yugoslavia in the other countries—open doors for hostile foreign actors to project their influence. The environment is rife with ethnic tension, border disputes, and neighbourly disagreements. All of these countries are developing democracies that have yet to fully recover from the aftermath of the Yugoslav wars. Their Euro-Atlantic orientation is currently a matter of tense debate. While Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia have become NATO members, Serbia oscillates between East and West, its EU candidate status notwithstanding. Although EU membership is still uncertain for the Western Balkan countries, all six have expressed their willingness to join the Union but are advancing down this path at different speeds.

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IRAN’S PROXY WAR IN YEMEN: THE INFORMATION WARFARE LANDSCAPE

IRAN’S PROXY WAR IN YEMEN: THE INFORMATION WARFARE LANDSCAPE

Author(s): Mariam Fekry,Can Kasapoglu / Language(s): English

Keywords: Geopolitics; Military policy; political warfare; Iran; Yemen; Information warfare; Houthi Militia;

The Yemeni conflict has been witnessing essential information warfare and propaganda front. Since the beginning of the conflict, the Houthi movement has been aware of the importance of the internet. Notably, they avoid adopting an aggressive sectarian lexicon on social media. Instead, following drone and missile strikes, the Houthi-associated accounts frequently emphasize IRGC-assisted game-changing military capabilities. This focus seems to follow Iranian priorities in Yemen, namely promoting the militarized political movement and portraying it in a less sectarian but more patriotic and battle-hardened fashion. This approach likely emanates from the different characteristics of the Shia faith in Yemen compared with the rest of the Middle East.

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DAESH PROPAGANDA, BEFORE AND AFTER ITS COLLAPSE. COUNTERING VIOLENT EXTREMISM

الدعائية، » داعش « حملات قبل انهيار التنظيم وبعده طرّف العنيف

Author(s): Charlie Winter / Language(s): Arabic

Keywords: Daesh Media infrastructure; Syria; Iraq; 2019; 2015; Civilian utopianism; Military denialism;

إن هذا التقرير يقارن بين ارشيفين من وسائل الإعلام الرسمية ل”داعش“ بفارق أربعسنوات. يبحث التقرير في تفاصيل نظرة التنظيم للعالم ويتابع تأثير العوامل الظرفيةالخارجية والداخلية عليه خلال سنوات تكوين الخلافة. وقد تب أن نشاط البنية التحتية يالإعلامية للتنظيم في أواسط 2019 قد انخفض الى حوالى عُشرٍ من نشاطها في أواسط2015 . تُظهر البيانات أيضاً أن التنظيم كان يخصص وقتاً أطول لمتابعة شبكته العالمية في2019 مقارنة ب 2015 . وأخيراً، تشير البيانات الى تغيير مواضيعي جسيم في رواية التنظيمالدعائية بشكل شامل، وقد تجسد ذلك في تحويل روايته من طوباوية مليارية الىإنكارية عسكرية. وخلاصة القول أن البيانات تدل على أنه بحلول عام 2019 ، انخفضنشاط القائمين بالدعاية لتنظيم “داعش” بشكل ملحوظ، وعملهم الإجمالي كان دولياًومركّزاً أقل على القضايا المدنية. إن هذا التغيير يشير الى بدء مرحلة جديدة في مسارالترويج السياسي للتنظيم، وقد أصبح مركّزاً أكثر على البقاء وليس على التوسّع.

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TOWARDS RULE OF LAW IN THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT

TOWARDS RULE OF LAW IN THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT

Author(s): Filippo Raso,Vineta Mēkone / Language(s): English

Keywords: Rule of law; Digital environment; Social media; EU Single Market; Government;

This report summarizes an invite-only workshop held in Riga, Latvia on 12 December 2018 that focused on exploring which legal and ethical principles can promote the safety and reliability of the digital environment and reduce its risks to democracy worldwide.

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The People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation as Strategic Allies

The People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation as Strategic Allies

Author(s): Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova / Language(s): English

Keywords: The People’s Republic of China; Russian Federation; strategic allies; foreign relations; Chinese-Russian relations;

China’s foreign relations are known for their reliance on the ‘friendship’ narrative, and its relations with Russia have been no exception. Still, the Sino-Russian ties lay beyond what could be considered diplomacy-as-usual from the Chinese perspective. Official documents make reference to “the tradition of friendship between the peoples of Russia and China, passed down from generation to generation”. The history of interactions, however, suggests otherwise, as both nations were effectively cut off from each other from late 1950 and until 1989, and mutual enmity peaked during the 1969 border conflict on the Ussuri river. [...]

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Extremist Communication Capabilities in North Africa and the Sahel

Extremist Communication Capabilities in North Africa and the Sahel

Author(s): Andreea Stoian Karadeli / Language(s): English

Keywords: North Africa; The Sahel; extremist communication capabilities; terrorism; Salafi-jihadi groups; al-Qaeda and ISIS; groups’ multilevel communication; jihadi phenomenon;

The complex nature of the threat of terrorism caused by groups active in North Africa and the Sahel requires effective information to prevent, detect, and eventually investigate all criminal activities related to their areas of interest. In the Maghreb-Sahel region, more than in any other place, the boundary between the two main Salafi-jihadi groups – al-Qaeda and ISIS – is porous at best and non-existent at worst. While borders between these Salafist religious spheres can be hard to define, they are tangled with contextual and interest-based factors, thereby transforming the regional jihadi ecosystem into a challenging mosaic. The main aim of this research is to map the communication capabilities of terrorist groups in North Africa and the Sahel, taking into consideration the local context as well as to identify and categorise the specific means used to disseminate propaganda in each country / region by contextualising the material produced in / for / about African Jihadism by both al-Qaeda and ISIS groups. Bearing in mind that terrorism functions as a communicative act, the groups’ multilevel communication capabilities are a core element of the jihadi phenomenon in North Africa and the Sahel.

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Terrorist and Armed Groups in the Fezzan-Sahel Region: Recruitment and Communication Tactics

Terrorist and Armed Groups in the Fezzan-Sahel Region: Recruitment and Communication Tactics

Author(s): Stefano Marcuzzi,Jason Pack / Language(s): English

Keywords: Terrorist and armed groups; Fezzan-Sahel region; criminal gangs; jihadists; criminal networks; weakness of state institutions; communication tactics;

This report discusses terrorist and armed group activity in the Libyan Fezzan (southwestern Libya) as well as these groups’ ties to local tribes. Since the downfall of Mu’ammar Qaddafi in 2011, Libya has become a hotspot for militias, criminal gangs, and jihadists. The geographic focal points of terrorist groups are shifting, however. In the northern part of the country, the territorial concentrations of these groups were largely defeated by 2017; conversely, in the Fezzan and the neighbouring countries of the Sahel, jihadi groups have proven resilient. In spite of international airstrikes and attacks by some Libyan forces (notably, the Libyan National Army or LNA), jihadi groups have survived, adapted their communication tactics to the local context and even engaged in lucrative criminal activities across the Fezzan-Sahel borders, further blurring the lines between jihadist and criminal networks.

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STRATCOM in the Mediterranean and the Sahel

STRATCOM in the Mediterranean and the Sahel

Author(s): Pascal Carlucci / Language(s): English

Keywords: STRATCOM; Mediterranean region; North Africa; the Sahel; NATO; violent conflicts; migration; security; peace-keeping;

Seas and deserts are uniting and dividing elements of human life on this planet. The Mediterranean region, North Africa, and the Sahel have witnessed a long history of historical cycles of cooperation and conflict. Since the Arab Spring and the fall of Qaddafi in Libya in 2011, the region has received increasing international attention given the combination of violent conflict and unprecedented migration flows at Europe’s doorstep. This paper aims to analyse the scope and nature of the impact of security challenges in this region upon strategic communications, mainly for NATO and its member states. This study is based on the analysis of global and regional open sources regarding four key issues: terrorism, migration, illicit trafficking, and great power competition. These have been identified as macro areas that affect the entire region and are deeply influenced by information. The conclusions provide succinct recommendations on how to conduct an informed and successful STRATCOM campaign in the region.

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Russia’s Strategic Exercises: Messages and Implications

Russia’s Strategic Exercises: Messages and Implications

Author(s): Vira Ratsiborynska,Daivis Petraitis,Valeriy Akimenko / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; strategic military exercises; military exercise as a form of communication; country’s military capabilities and readiness; geopolitics;

In this report, several of Russia’s strategic military exercises come under the spotlight to explore the messages and implications of these activities. A nation’s military exercises, especially strategic, are a form of important communication to a wide array of audiences including adversaries, allies, partners and the nation’s own population. This type of communication provides a better understanding of the scope and scale of a country’s military capabilities and readiness. It also provides valuable insights into a nation’s interests, operational art and strategic thinking. Military exercises support political, military and geopolitical intents as well as demonstrating capabilities and challenging our ways of thinking beyond the current framework of traditional military ‘modus operandi’.

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Russia’s Activities in Africa’s Information Environment. Case Studies: Mali and Central African Republic

Russia’s Activities in Africa’s Information Environment. Case Studies: Mali and Central African Republic

Author(s): Karel Svoboda,Paula-Charlotte Matlach,Zack Baddorf / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; activities in Africa; information environment; Mali; Central African republic; Russia’s strategies in Africa;

This paper focuses on Russia’s strategies in Africa. The first ever Russia-Africa summit, co-hosted in October 2019 by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi in Sochi, was presented by both Russian and international media as a milestone in Russia’s return to the African continent. Leaders and delegations of the vast majority of African states met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and other Russian representatives to discuss possible projects of cooperation between their respective countries. The summit ranked among the largest of recent Africa-partner summits (EU-Africa, China-Africa, US-Africa, and Japan-Africa). For example, Russia was able to welcome more state delegations than the US at their summit. The declared initiatives of cooperation appeared impressive, ranging from nuclear energy, oil and gas, to automobile production and financial loans for various fields. This meeting sparked numerous claims by both Western and Russian media that Russia is a key player in the region. There are plans for organizing another summit in 2022.

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Arctic Narratives and Political Values: Arctic States, China and NATO

Arctic Narratives and Political Values: Arctic States, China and NATO

Author(s): Iona Allan,Elizabete Auniņa / Language(s): English

Keywords: Arctic region; political interest; environmental changes; natural gas supply; economic potential; oil and gas extraction;

Over the last five years, mainstream political interest and global media attention towards the Arctic region has grown rapidly, from alarmist headlines declaring a ‘global battle for the Arctic’ and the beginning of a new ‘Cold War’ to more bleak warnings about the irreversible environmental changes taking place above the Arctic Circle. From an economic and resource perspective, the Arctic has also taken on a truly global significance in recent years. With almost 30% of the world’s undiscovered remaining natural gas supply and 13% of undiscovered oil located under the Northern Polar ice, many countries, both within and outside the region, are now looking towards the Arctic as a region of great untapped economic potential. After the record-breaking summer ice melts of 2007 and 2012, previously impassable stretches of Arctic waters became ice-free and navigable for the first time, allowing oil companies to send drilling ships northward and begin the first phases of oil and gas extraction.

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Falsification of History as a Tool of Influence

Falsification of History as a Tool of Influence

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: Falsification of history; Russia; use of historical propaganda; foreign policy; shaping perceptions; manipulation; influence;

This study deals with the growing trend of Russia’s use of historical propaganda to further its foreign policy goals. It contains chapters written by experts in the field in the respective countries of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Poland. The methodological aspects of the project were discussed in detail during a seminar in Riga on 11 December 2018. It was agreed that, for the integrity of the compendium, at least the central theme should be commonly understood as Jowett and O’Donnell conceptualise it: propaganda is a deliberate and systematic attempt to shape perceptions, manipulate cognitions, and direct behaviour to achieve a response that furthers the desired intent of the propagandist. Its systematic nature requires the longitudinal study of its progress. Because the essence of propaganda is its deliberateness of purpose, considerable investigation is required to find out what this purpose is.

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Russia’s Footprint in the Nordic-Baltic Information Environment. Report 2019/2020

Russia’s Footprint in the Nordic-Baltic Information Environment. Report 2019/2020

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nordic-Baltic countries; Russia; disinformation campaigns; Russia’s information influence; manipulation;

This is the second volume issued in the framework of the project ‘Russia’s (Dis-)Information Campaigns in Nordic-Baltic Countries’. This project was initiated in 2016 as an ongoing effort to monitor and analyse Russia’s (dis-)information influence in the Nordic-Baltic region, which includes Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden (the NB8). The first volume was published in January 2018.

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Exercise Kavkaz 2020 – A Final Test of Russian Military Reform?

Exercise Kavkaz 2020 – A Final Test of Russian Military Reform?

Author(s): Daivis Petraitis,Vira Ratsiborynska,Baris Kirdemir,Valeriy Akimenko / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; military exercise; Kavkaz 2020; Russian military reform; geopolitics; international relations; annual training programme; military power; Kremlin;

The year 2020 was one of tectonic geopolitical shifts. Strategic competition between Russia and the West intensified, while the COVID-19 pandemic had major strategic implications globally and affected the state of international affairs. In 2020 Russia conducted Kavkaz 2020, a major exercise from its annual cycle, which aimed to convey the Kremlin’s ability to adapt to changing conditions of warfare and to project and integrate military power. In a period of international turmoil and economic recession linked to the effects of the pandemic, Kavkaz 2020 was a cornerstone of Russia’s campaign to leverage its annual training programme, display military power and upgraded military capabilities to its allies, partners and neighbours, as well as to demonstrate operational readiness to its potential adversaries. Messages communicated before and during Kavkaz 2020 demonstrated how Russia could use its military element of state power to achieve the geopolitical or political objectives Kremlin desires in the European information space.

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