Publisher: EXPERT-GRUP Centrul Analitic Independent

The Cyprus Precedent, the Post-Soviet “Frozen Conflicts” and the European Agenda of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

The Cyprus Precedent, the Post-Soviet “Frozen Conflicts” and the European Agenda of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Against the backdrop of a radical reset of the regional geopolitical context, joining the European Union (EU) is a necessity, not just a historic opportunity, for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia in their efforts to consolidate their own statehood. In addition, embracing the European vector would make possible a future detachment from the Russian sphere of influence, provided that the reforms initiated generate order and prosperity, and depopulation is stopped.

Four paths to Transparency in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Four paths to Transparency in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Much of the discussion on the region is rightly focused on the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The outcome of the conflict will hold weighty consequences for the state of democracy not only in the region, but on the global stage. In these uncertain times, it remains more essential than ever for the region’s leaders to commit to building strong and inclusive democracies that welcome the participation of civil society and the public in budget processes. The international community should also continue to support reformers in the region, and citizens that have demonstrated a strong commitment to advance transparency and accountability. Ensuring full and comprehensive budget transparency—and pursuing avenues to engage the public more meaningfully in public spending decisions— will remain a key pillar of strengthening democracy and open government in this region.

The importance of the European vector for the sustainable development of the Republic of Moldova: Report in Figures

Importanța vectorului european pentru dezvoltarea durabilă a Republicii Moldova: relatare în cifre

Author(s): Marina Soloviova / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldowa's democratic development; Moldowa and EU;

In this article, we report on the importance of the European vector for the sustainable development of the Republic of Moldova through the lens of data on foreign trade, investments and foreign assistance. Currently, the European Union is not only the main commercial partner of the Republic of Moldova, but also the primary source of direct investments in the Moldovan economy. Also, during the year, the European Union offered the Republic of Moldova substantial financial support in the form of preferential loans and grants for the construction or renovation of social objects and infrastructure in the villages and cities of Moldova, but also for mitigating the negative economic and social impact that Moldova suffered as a result of the regional security crisis.

Why do we need a reform of the National Employment Agency?

De ce avem nevoie de o reformă a Agenției Naționale de Ocupare a Forței de Muncă?

Author(s): Stas Madan / Language(s): Romanian

The need to reform ANOFM is a priority both on the Government's agenda and in the strategic planning documents. This is by no means accidental considering that statistical and sociological data definitely suggest the existence of challenges and imbalances in the intermediation of labor market demand and supply, and ANOFM is the state institution mandated to ensure the correlation of labor demand with labor supply. The given analysis evaluates and argues with evidence about the need to reform ANOFM emerging from 3 perspectives i) institutional vulnerabilities, ii) the perception of unemployed beneficiaries about the interaction and services provided by ANOFM, but also iii) how the activity of ANOFM correlates with social realities - economic from the territorial units they cover. At the same time, based on the analysis of the situation carried out, recommendations are also presented for the successful and impactful implementation of the given reform.

Impact of the global financial crisis on local communities in Moldova

Impact of the global financial crisis on local communities in Moldova

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

Keywords: Global financial Crisis;

This study was commissioned to the Expert-Grup think-tank by the UNDP office in Moldova with the purpose to assess qualitatively, and to the extent possible, quantitatively, the impact of the global financial crisis and associated economic downturn on Moldovan local communities and identify possible responses that local communities can adopt to cope with the crisis. Expert-Grup has used a wide range of tools and techniques to conduct the research. Available statistical data have been analyzed quantitatively but qualitative research was important to get the quantitative analysis more “human development”-orientated.

Poverty of the children of the Moldovan migrants

Poverty of the children of the Moldovan migrants

Author(s): Valeriu Prohniţchi / Language(s): English

Keywords: migration; children of migrants;

This report focuses on the impact of migration on the situation of the Moldovan children left behind by migrating parents. It finds that the total number of these children is large and the official figures underestimate the extent of this phenomenon. According to official information around 28000 children in the academic year 2004/2005 were left by both parents and more than 68000 thousand were left by one parent. These numbers do not correlate with the large annual outflows and large total stock of the Moldovan migrants. The report makes the hypothesis that remittances which alleviate poverty of most of the children are likely to generate more income inequality among the children. While there are indirect and mostly qualitative confirmations of the hypothesis, the issue deserves further research. The education and health outcomes of the children left by migrating parents are not addressed properly in existing literature. Some of the qualitative report asserts that in most of the cases educational outcomes worsen after parents leave. Also, it is not clear if these children are more likely than others to get accustomed with unhealthy patterns of live: smocking, drinking alcohol or taking drugs. Several reports made by school directors and tutors affirm that there is such a trend, but existing statistical data and researches do not confirm nor infirm this affirmation. Also, a report finds that children living without parents are more inclined to commit crimes, but the quality of this report is not clear.

INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT IN REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND METHODS OF COMBAT

OCUPAREA INFORMALĂ ÎN REPUBLICA MOLDOVA: CAUZE, CONSECINȚE ȘI MODALITĂȚI DE COMBATERE

Author(s): Ana Popa / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: labour market i Moldowa;

The given study aimed to examine the real causes of informal employment and the impact of informal employment on the state, but also on the people who work in this segment. In this context, special attention has been paid to "undeclared work" and "envelope wages", which are achieved through tax evasion, while other more widespread forms of informal employment (e.g. self-employment or work in own households) are a response to the existing economic structure and legal framework and do not have the primary purpose of tax evasion. However, the imperfect legal framework allows the evasion of paying taxes specifically by practicing some activities as a self-employed person. However, the purpose of this report is to analyze specifically that part of informal employment that involves tax evasion.

Analysis of increasing Salary for Judges: Costs without Benefits?!

Analiza majorării salariilor pentru Judecători: Costuri fără Beneficii?!

Author(s): Rustam Romaniuc / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: salaries of judges;

The increase in salaries is a necessary condition to overcome the accumulated significant arrears in the remuneration of judges, which causes the dissatisfaction of judges with the current "system" because, they say, the difficulties and risks related to exercising the function of a judge are not fully rewarded. At the same time, the lack of a causal relationship between the level of remuneration and the set of motivations of judges suggests to us the lack of a simple solution for solving inefficiencies in the justice sector. An approach focused on altering the elements likely to affect the behavior of judges and especially their responsibility towards society is absolutely necessary.

Ways to improve fiscal Fairness and the Resilience of Natural Persons: Proposals formulated by the Expert Group in the context of the approval of the draft law to amend the fiscal and customs policy

Modalități de îmbunătățire a echității fiscale și a rezilienței persoanelor fizice: propuneri formulate de Expert-Grup în contextul avizării proiectului de lege pentru modificarea politicii fiscale și vamale

Author(s): Vitalie Rapcea / Language(s): Romanian

This article examines the draft law for the amendment of some normative acts concerning fiscal and customs policy submitted for public consultation on 22.05.2023. The Expert-Group welcomes the intention of the authors to support "increasing the resilience of natural persons through fiscal instruments" and that of creating a harmonized and fair tax and customs system", one that would allow, among other things, to "combat the phenomenon of the salary in the envelope". In order to more fully achieve the objectives set by the Ministry of Finance through fiscal and customs policy, the Expert-Group came up with the proposals for: unification of quotas on income from investment activities, including the income obtained from securities issued by cities or other forms of administrative- territorial; the establishment of fiscal equity when establishing the road use tax; the establishment of the mechanism to facilitate wage increases and "passing on the white" by establishing a temporary mechanism for reimbursement of the tax costs of the wage increase borne by employers (MASCS), etc. Additionally, the Expert-Group proposed the revision of several Government Decisions for: the annual indexing of the ceiling for the deduction of expenses regarding the organized transport of employees/day workers; expanding the deductibility also on the expenses associated with the adaptation of means of transport/spaces to the needs of employees with reduced mobility; as well as the establishment of differentiated compensations for the transport of people with disabilities; granting for all economic agents that employ people with disabilities the same subsidies related to the expenses related to the payment of the salary as in the case of specialized enterprises (for the deaf, blind, etc.).

Public Alert: Stop the Attacks against Civil Society in the Republic of Moldova

Alertă Publică: Opriți atacurile împotriva Societății Civile din Republica Moldova

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Romanian

Civil society, represented by the National Platform of Civil Society from the Eastern Partnership, as well as other organizations, expresses its concern about the unprecedented attacks on non-governmental organizations, development partners and democracy, launched by the deputy Bogdan Șîrdea. On October 21, 2020, the socialist deputy Bogdan Șîrdea launched the toughest, most complex and assumed frontal attack launched by a Moldovan politician against the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova, against the fundamental rights and freedoms of the country's citizens and against the modernization of our state according to the European model. This attack consists in discrediting, on the basis of falsehoods and defamatory accusations, the civil society as a whole, of which the preferred target were the organizations that work mainly in the field of human rights protection, justice reform, the fight against corruption, freedom of the press, of pro-European reforms, of reforms in the social and medical fields.

Theory of Change for Demographic Resilience

Teoria Schimbării pentru Reziliența Demografică

Author(s): Adrian Lupușor / Language(s): Romanian

The Theory of Change for Demographic Resilience represents an analysis of the demographic context in the Republic of Moldova and sets policy priorities for transforming demographic changes into a development opportunity. This is based on 3 pillars: adaptation, mitigation and adjustment. The Theory of Change for Demographic Resilience is developed by the UN Population Fund (UN FPA), based on the partnership with the "Expert-Group" Independent Analytical Center and the Demographic Research Center, at the request of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection.

Budget Transparency in Central Public Institutions and Authorities

Transparența bugetară în Instituțiile și Autoritățile Publice Centrale

Author(s): Dumitru Budianschi / Language(s): Romanian

The analysis of the web pages of the Central Public Authorities regarding the level of transparency of the use of public money and patrimony revealed that the vast majority do not publish information with reference to this subject. Only a few institutions are an exception to this situation, among them being: the Ministry of Finance, the Court of Accounts, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Health. Out of 8 monitored documents, related to 2015, the most widespread document published by the authorities is the Activity Report, which for many institutions is the only published document. At the same time, there are 15 institutions out of 38 analyzed that for the monitored year did not publish any of the analyzed documents.

Evaluation of the Impact of Corruption on the Good Governance of the Municipality of Chișinau

Evaluarea impactului corupției asupra bunei guvernări a municipiului Chișinău

Author(s): Dumitru Budianschi / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: Corruption;

The Independent Analytic Center "Expert-Group" carried out this Study on the basis of the service provision contract, concluded with the United Nations Development Program, within the Project "Strengthening the capacities of the National Anti-Corruption Center to exercise the functions of prevention and analysis of corruption", implemented by UNDP Moldova, with the financial support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway. The main purpose of the Study is the comprehensive assessment of the impact of corruption on the good governance of the Chisinau Municipality and the formulation of a set of recommendations to prevent corruption and reduce its incidence in the Capital City Hall.

Between illusory justice, political tactics and attacks on the independence of the Central Bank. Opinion on the initiative to redistribute part of the NBM's profits to cover the "theft of the billion"

Între justiție iluzorie, tactică politică și atentate în adresa independenței băncii centrale. Opinie pe marginea inițiativei de a redistribui o parte din profiturile BNM pentru acoperirea a „furtului miliardului”

Author(s): Adrian Lupușor / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: corruption;

At the beginning of this week, the President of the country, Igor Dodon, came up with the initiative to reallocate part of the profit of the National Bank of Moldova (BNM) to the state budget in order to partially cover the state debt formed following the entry into force of the "law billion". The NBM supported this proposal, stating that "the partial distribution of the NBM's profits, under the agreed conditions, corresponds to international standards in the field of capitalization of central banks. The solution is a balanced one and will allow the gradual accumulation of the National Bank's capital, necessary for the exercise of its mandate, as well as the reduction of the burden on the state budget by distributing profits to it". This initiative requires a deeper deciphering and analytical interpretation, as it contradicts the principles of central bank independence and has important implications for the macro-financial stability framework in the country. In addition, the initiative cannot solve the fundamental problem: lack of real progress in the process of investigations on the "theft of the billion", and the necessary resources for the early repayment of the debt have not been identified.

Seven myths about integration into the European Union

Șapte mituri despre integrarea în Uniunea Europeană

Author(s): Alexandru Zgardan / Language(s): Romanian

In this article, we present the most popular myths regarding the danger of Moldova's integration into the European Union, which are circulated by some public figures and media sources politically affiliated with the anti-European trend, and we present the reasons why they are false. These myths cover a wide spectrum of phobias – starting with the business field and ending with migration, culture and national traditions. The central idea that runs through all cases of dismantling these fakes is the simple fact that the European Union, in the vast majority of its regulations, does not centrally impose any specific rules, but rather sets before the member states relatively general objectives with implementation deadlines and the member states have discretion the freedom to choose the methods they use to achieve these goals. Moreover, the areas that are in the exclusive competence of the European Union and that are ceded for regulation by the member states at the time of integration are the rules related to the fact that the European Union is a customs union and only the regulation of the movement of goods and services, free competition, the common commercial policy and the monetary policy exclusively for the member states of the Eurozone are dictated directly by the European authorities. All the areas that remain are areas where a collaboration takes place and a dialogue is maintained between the states and the European Union, which includes recommendations and a permanent exchange of ideas, and each member state chooses what strategies they use in these areas, which are often ignorantly included in the competence of the Union European – environmental protection, agriculture, consumer protection, justice, foreign policy, migration, etc. Also, the European Union is a forum for discussions between states with legal systems, very varied cultures and divergent interests, and this can be easily observed when some member states can block important decisions or refuse to follow some democratic principles.

The pact of malignant influence: Tiraspol and Comrat, mobilized to keep Moldova in the zone of influence of the Russian Federation

Pactul influenței maligne: Tiraspolul și Comratul, mobilizate pentru păstrarea Moldovei în zona de influență a Federației Ruse

Author(s): Ilie Gulca / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: Moldowa; Trnasnistrija; Russia;

On May 17, the "Pervîi Pridnestrovski" television station from Transnistria resorted to a technical detail with which it surprised the public on both banks of the Dniester. The editorial staff of the main television station from Tiraspol broadcast on YouTube the show "Dialogues with the President of Transnistria", with Romanian subtitles, in which the secessionist leader, Vadim Krasnoselski, spoke about how Moldova is destroying the economy of Transnistria. The columnist of the official Novosti pmr.md, Andrei Safonov, says that the appearance of Romanian subtitles on the "Pervîi Pridnestrovski" screen is "no hidden movement" and that the Transnistrians only want the inhabitants of the right bank of the Dniester to know the position of Tiraspol. "Everything is normal and respectful", he mentions, for Moldovans to read the "running" Romanian letters from the bottom of the screen after in Moldova "the Latin alphabet was imposed from above in 1989".

Russia's modus operandi and malicious operations for the "hearts and minds" of Moldovans

Modus operandi și operațiunile maligne ale Rusiei pentru “inimile și mințile” moldovenilor

Author(s): Mădălin Necşuţu / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: hybrid threats; hybrid war;

In the imposing glass building on Schuman Square in the center of Brussels, where the European External Action Service (EEAS) is based, the European institutions are responding to an unseen war for the "hearts and minds" of Europeans invaded by the toxic narratives generated by large-scale operations disinformation launched from the Kremlin. "The Republic of Moldova is subject to almost the entire range of hybrid threats, becoming a testing ground from this point of view. We observe an increasing trend of hybrid threats in Moldova, as the EU accession negotiations and the EU accession referendum approach and in the local electoral context", an official from the European diplomacy draws our attention during a session with journalists, experts and officials from several countries in the ex-Soviet space that today have European aspirations.

Is it a new Moldova? .Event report

Is it a new Moldova? .Event report

Author(s): Mridvika Sahajpal / Language(s): English

On July 15, CEPS hosted Moldovan Foreign Minister and former CEPS researcher Nicu Popescu in house for an event giving an account of the new politics of Moldova following a major constitutional crisis, and an unexpected coalition of the pro-Russian Socialist party and pro-European ACUM party group. The central question as posed by Associate Senior Research Fellow Michael Emerson was: the domestic and geopolitical scene set, are we now seeing the transformation of a new Moldova? The two discussants included Carnegie Europe’s Thomas de Waal and Director at the Secretariat of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum Natalia Yerashevich. The discussion was followed by a Q/A period.

The programs of candidates and candidates for the presidential elections in Moldova 2024: between the distribution of free elephants and realistic promises

Programele candidaților și candidatelor la alegerile prezidențiale din Moldova 2024: între împărțirea de elefanți gratuiți și promisiuni realiste

Author(s): Marina Soloviova / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: 2024 elections in Moldova;

In this article, we briefly analyze the main socio-economic components of the electoral programs presented by the candidates for the presidential elections of October 20, 2024 from the perspective of the appropriateness and feasibility of the proposed commitments.

From Gagauzia, about the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the EU: "The country will lose its sovereignty, territory, religion and peace" vs. analysts' explanations

Din Găgăuzia, despre aderarea Republicii Moldova la UE: „Țara își va pierde suveranitatea, teritoriul, religia și pacea” vs. explicațiile analiștilor

Author(s): Maria Gorbatovschi / Language(s): Romanian

On June 25, two years and two days after the granting of candidate country status, the Republic of Moldova participated in the first intergovernmental conference at the ministerial level for the opening of accession negotiations to the European Union. This autumn, on October 20, a constitutional referendum will be held in this regard in the Republic of Moldova. "Do you support amending the Constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union?". We decided to go with this question in UTA Gagauzia. There I found citizens who admitted that they will boycott the referendum and based on myths, evoke the fears of the Republic of Moldova joining the EU. Their fear is "the loss of territory, sovereignty, religion, the legalization of same-sex marriages and even the outbreak of an armed war." Experts blame disinformation and Russian influence in the region. We collected from citizens' "fears", analyzed and dismantled them, one by one, with the help of experts.