Publisher: EXPERT-GRUP Centrul Analitic Independent

Inflation in the Republic of Moldova: causes, vulnerable groups and policy recommendations

Inflația în Republica Moldova: cauze, grupurile vulnerabile și recomandări de politici

Author(s): Alexandru Fală / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: inflation in Moldowa; increasing prices; Covid19; Russian war against Ukraine;

After in 2015, against the background of the banking crisis and the economic decline, the annual inflation approached the level of 10%, the Republic of Moldova entered a phase of moderate price increases. However, the year 2021 marked the end of this period. The rapid global economic recovery in the context of the promotion of stimulatory economic policies and the relaxation of anti-Covid measures in several states, the emergence of problems related to the operation of logistics chains, as well as severe climatic conditions have generated an explosion in the prices of energy, food products and building materials. As a result, the global economy was hit by a strong inflationary wave. The start of the war by Russia against Ukraine led to an additional disruption of international logistics chains and jeopardized the distribution of agri-food goods globally, which further intensified the trend of global price increases started in 2021. Republic of Moldova , likewise, was affected by international economic developments and collided with a rapid rise in prices. In new:2021 annual inflation exceeded the level of 10%, and already in apr:2022 the increase in prices reached 27.1% f-o-p. Moreover, for the year 2022 the NBM forecasts a high level of average annual inflation that will constitute 27.3%. In this context, the present study aimed to analyze in more detail the inflationary developments of the last period, identify the impact of price increases on poverty and formulate some policy recommendations aimed at mitigating the impact of these shocks.

Start of the reform of state companies! The year 2023 will mark the moment of truth regarding the determination to make systemic reforms in this sector

Start reformei companiilor de stat! Anul 2023 va marca momentul adevărului privind determinarea de a face reforme sistemice în acest sector

Author(s): Vitalie Rapcea / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: World Bank; IMF; state-owned enterprises;

On December 21, 2022, in Ștefan Vodă, the Government crossed the Rubicon and approved the "Strategy regarding the administration of state property in the field of state enterprises and commercial companies with full or majority state capital for the years 2022-2030" (state property strategy). The document marks the achievement of an important commitment assumed as a candidate country for the EU and eliminates the biggest non-conformities reported in the reports of the World Bank (2017) and the IMF (2022) regarding the sector of state companies. Although the approval of the state ownership strategy is an important milestone, at least as relevant is the fulfillment of the commitments made in this document. In this context, the commentary focuses on the actions planned for the year 2023. The relevance of monitoring the implementation of these actions lies in the fact that they will testify to the sincerity of the Government and governance as a whole, with reference to the reform of the state companies sector and the administration of public property. This commentary explains how the planned actions, if carried out, can contribute to reducing the risks of corruption and maximizing the public benefit by: i) rationalizing the presence of the state in the economy; ii) strengthening the capacity of the state to administer public property; iii) and improving governance and transparency.

The major dysfunctionalities of the Public Policy Promotion Process described on the example of the draft Law for the Modification of the "mode of Road Administration"

Disfuncționalitățile majore ale procesului de promovare a politicilor publice descrise pe exemplul proiectului de lege pentru modificarea „modului de administrare a drumurilor”

Author(s): Vitalie Rapcea / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: road administration; public patrimony;

On 25.05.2023, the Parliament approved, in the final reading, the project to amend the way of public road administration, and now it is waiting its turn to be promulgated by the presidential institution. The project is in contradiction with the state's vision in the field of road administration, in the field of administration and denationalization of public property and may jeopardize the achievement of the European Moldova 2030 objective. This analysis comes to use the case of legislative project no. 85 of 30.03.2022 to describe the major dysfunctions in the process of promoting public policies, both at Government and Parliament level. The case illustrates how a fundamental policy decision can be promoted in the absence of sufficient argumentation, in the absence of a sectoral vision, in contradiction with other strategic planning documents, in the context of a negative anti-corruption opinion, and despite the numerous risks: image, financial alienation of public patrimony, distortion of the market, etc.

Partnerships with quarrel: Analysis of the Draft Amendment to the PPP Law

Parteneriate cu bucluc: analiza proiectului de modificare a legii PPP

Author(s): Vitalie Rapcea / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: public-private partnership;

On 27.04.2023, the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova approved, in the first reading, draft law no. 102 of 13.04.2023 for the amendment of some normative acts (the draft law "on public-private partnership and the administration of public property"). The draft law developed by the Government does not eliminate the main problems associated with public private partnerships (PPP), it does not represent an integrative vision of this formidable investment instrument, and some provisions of the legislative initiative are in contradiction with the stated objectives, with the state's ownership strategy, they unbalance the balance of forces in a PPP contract and generate risks of embezzlement of public assets. This analytical note reviews the main problematic provisions with a view to addressing them until the final approval of the draft law by Parliament.

Improving Access to Information on External Assistance

Improving Access to Information on External Assistance

Author(s): Marina Soloviova / Language(s): English

Keywords: Access to Information; External Assistance; Republic of Moldova; energy crisis; regional security crisis;

The Republic of Moldova has recently received a substantial amount of foreign assistance from international organisations and foreign governments in the form of loans, grants and humanitarian aid in order to overcome the consequences of the energy crisis and the regional security crisis, as well as for investment projects. In this context, it is more important than ever to ensure public access to data on the use of external assistance, as well as the conditions under which funding is provided. Transparency gives society the opportunity to hold the Government accountable in order to ensure a sound management of the assistance received and to protect the public interest. This article identifies problems related to public access in the Republic of Moldova to information on external assistance received and proposes measures to overcome them.

Three elements for the solution to the inflation problem: More balanced monetary policy + depoliticization of the subject + better targeted social compensations

Trei elemente pentru soluția problemei inflației: Politica monetară mai echilibrată + depolitizarea subiectului + compensații sociale mai bine țintite

Author(s): Adrian Lupușor / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: iflation;

Inflation has become the main economic and social problem of the current year, both for the Republic of Moldova and for the global economy, against the background of the increase in international prices for food products and energy resources, and the war in Ukraine. Thus, annual inflation reached 29.1% in May, and in the coming months, it will most likely exceed the 30% threshold. At the same time, in the European Union, Great Britain or the United States of America it has reached maximum levels in recent decades. For Moldova, whose consumption depends on imports to the extent of about 60%, and in the case of energy resources the dependence is practically complete on imports, global inflation immediately turned into a complex national problem.

How much and how do state companies still matter in the economy of the Republic of Moldova?

Cât și cum mai contează companiile de stat în economia Republicii Moldova?

Author(s): Stas Madan / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: State-owned economy:

State-owned enterprises continue to play an important role in the national economy as significant owners, operators and employees in several strategic sectors. They manage critical infrastructure at national level, such as gas import and distribution, electricity networks, telecommunications, railways, transport or road infrastructure. In addition, many state-owned companies provide important public services. Considering that, in the last resort, the owners of the state companies are the citizens of the Republic of Moldova, it is of public interest to present a picture regarding the structure of this property. This analysis aims to quantify how the contribution of state ownership to the formation of value in the economy has evolved, how many companies are still state-owned and what their condition is, but also which are the sectors where state-owned companies still have a significant presence.

The interest is piqued: who are the real beneficiaries of the anti-dumping tax on the import of cement from Moldova to Ukraine and what can we do to solve this problem

Interesul poartă fesul: cine sunt beneficiarii reali ai taxei anti-dumping la importul de ciment din Moldova în Ucraina și ce putem face pentru a soluționa această problemă

Author(s): Marina Soloviova / Language(s): Romanian

Any state has not only the right to defend its national economic interests from unjustified barriers to foreign trade, but also the obligation to its own citizens to do so. As a member country of the World Trade Organization, the Republic of Moldova could make use of the trade dispute settlement mechanism provided for in the WTO, but the authorities of the Republic of Moldova are not sufficiently active in this regard. In this note, we report on the essence and circumstances of the conflict between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine related to the establishment by the Ukrainian authorities of an anti-dumping tax on the import of cement originating from Moldova. We show for what reasons this decision of the Ukrainian authorities is questionable and how it damages not only the economic interests of Moldova, but also those of Ukraine, vassalizing the state's policies to private interests. We describe what the official procedure for resolving disputes between WTO member countries consists of, we bring an example of a similar case that was recently successfully resolved, and we urge the authorities of the Republic of Moldova to be more active in defending the interests of their own country, as well as the public interest of Ukraine.

Prima Casă Plus: a social, banking, real estate or electoral program? Analysis of program opportunities and risks

Prima Casă Plus: un program social, bancar, imobiliar sau electoral? Analiza oportunităților și riscurilor programului

Author(s): Stas Madan / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: housing prices;

Reliable and affordable housing affordability, especially for young families, is a public policy concern for many states. The Republic of Moldova set out to achieve this goal in 2018 with the launch of the "Prima Casa" state program, with the aim of facilitating the access of young families to housing by guaranteeing mortgage loans requested from banks. After a period in which it managed to significantly influence both the mortgage market and the real estate market as a whole, in the last two years the "Prima Casa" program entered a phase of stagnation. The given situation occurred due to the high inflation of the period 2022-2023 which resulted in the increase of nominal interest rates, but also of the increasing evolution of real estate prices. With the return of inflation within reasonable limits and the cheapening of financing costs, the authorities came up with a bill, conventionally called "Prima Casa Plus", which aims to revive the program. This Analytical Note aims to analyze what the "Prima Casă" program has meant so far, what the project's provisions are and to highlight the main benefits and risks that arise for the interested parties.

Everything you need to know about the 2024 Census of Population and Housing

Tot ce trebuie să știm despre recensământul populației și locuințelor 2024

Author(s): Marina Soloviova / Language(s): Romanian

Population and housing censuses are the most difficult and expensive data collection activity undertaken by national statistical authorities worldwide. In addition to costs, this complex task requires full public awareness and cooperation. One of the specific problems that can arise during the census is the presence of uncooperative population groups, as well as the desire of some interest groups to oppose the census for various reasons: costs, perceived intrusion, privacy concerns and other causes. . For some people, the refusal to participate in the census represents a form of protest against the policies promoted by the state. Although people's dissatisfaction with the results of government can be understood, the census is not a suitable occasion to express our anger towards the public authorities. The census is precisely that exercise that highlights the country's problems and helps to solve them. It represents an indispensable element in the information system of a civilized society, providing not only the Government, but also economic agents and the public with data on the demographic, social, economic and environmental situation. How exactly the census helps us, we explain in this article.

10 Myths about the 2024 Population and Housing Census in Moldova

10 mituri despre Recensământul Populației și Locuințelor 2024 din Moldova

Author(s): Adrian Lupușor,Marina Soloviova,Stas Madan / Language(s): Romanian

Between April 8 and July 7, 2024, the Population and Housing Census will be held in the Republic of Moldova, during which data will be collected on the number and demographic characteristics of the population, as well as on residential buildings and living conditions. With reference to the census, various materials started to appear in the press and on social networks with erroneous interpretations about the "true purposes" of the census and the data that will be collected. We've rounded up the most common rumors about the census and checked whether they're true or not.

The banking sector - part of the solution for consumer loans. Opinion on potential solutions to support people with non-bank loans whose incomes have been affected by the Covid-19 crisis.

Sectorul bancar - parte a soluției pentru împrumuturile de consum. Opinie pe marginea unor potențiale soluții de susținere a persoanelor cu împrumuturi nebancare a căror venituri au fost afectate de criza Covid-19.

Author(s): Dumitru Pîntea / Language(s): Romanian

Almost 2 months after the declaration of the state of emergency, the situation of several economic actors continues to deteriorate. Along with economic agents, whose usual activity suffers due to social distancing, the incomes of several categories of the population are also affected. To a certain extent, the whole population is affected, but attention is particularly drawn to those who, in addition to periodic payments for living, utilities and rents, also have installments to pay at the bank or non-bank credit organizations (OCN). Without decisive interventions, their financial situation can degenerate and extend the debt chain to other operators (utility providers, financial institutions, etc.). Therefore, this situation calls for quick interventions to avoid the growth of the "bulk of the crisis" and the need for much more expensive subsequent interventions.