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#mission2030: Austria’s Strategy for a Low-Carbon Transformation

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Marek Wąsiński / Language(s): English

The Austrian government is implementing its energy and climate strategy to 2030, the aim of which is to stimulate the economy and achieve energy independence through the use of clean technologies. The strategy signals potential points of contention with Poland, including in nuclear and coal energy. At the same time, it indicates potential fields of cooperation regarding low-emission transport.

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14th EU-India Summit in New Delhi Strengthens Partnership

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The EU-India Summit in New Delhi on 6 October showed an increasing convergence of views on major regional and global issues and boosted the strategic partnership established in 2004. Yet, the lack of a breakthrough in negotiations of the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) proves it remains a major challenge, along with the negative effects of Brexit, on EU-India relations. If the negotiations are protracted, the EU may consider a separate deal on investments alone. Poland should consider more actively participating in shaping EU policy on India and using existing mechanisms of dialogue to strengthen its bilateral cooperation.

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2016 – Szczyt strategicznej adaptacji NATO

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): Polish

Szczyt NATO w Warszawie zakończy pierwszą fazę dostosowywania sił Sojuszu do nowych zagrożeń związanych z agresywnymi działaniami Rosji wobec sąsiadów oraz z kryzysami na Bliskim Wschodzie i w Afryce Północnej. Nowe siły szybkiego reagowania NATO nie zapewnią jednak zdolności do obrony wschodniej flanki przed konwencjonalnym atakiem i próbą podważenia wiarygodności Sojuszu. Dlatego Polska chce wystąpić na szczycie z Warszawską inicjatywą adaptacji strategicznej, która ma dostosować strukturę sił Sojuszu do zadań klasycznej obrony terytorialnej i odstraszania konwencjonalnych zagrożeń.

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40 lat od reform Deng Xiaopinga: wyzwania i perspektywy chińskiej gospodarki

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): Polish

Po czterech dekadach stopniowego otwierania chińskiej gospodarki na świat i na początku drugiej kadencji Xi Jinpinga władze ChRL ogłaszają pogłębione reformy, w tym zwiększanie dostępu do rynku dla zagranicznych podmiotów. Pomimo umocnienia władzy Xi należy się spodziewać dalszego wybiórczego wprowadzania zmian, uzależnionego od siły chińskich przedsiębiorstw w konkretnych branżach i ich potrzeb rozwojowych. Zapowiedzi reform stwarzają okazję dla UE do wywarcia presji na polepszenie sytuacji firm z państw unijnych działających w ChRL.

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40 Years Since Deng Xiaoping’s Reforms: The Chinese Economy’s Challenges and Prospects

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

After four decades of gradually opening the Chinese economy to the world and at the beginning of the Xi Jinping’s second term in office, China’s authorities are announcing deep reforms, including increasing market access for foreign entities. Despite strengthening Xi’s power, one should expect a further, selective opening of the market depending on the strength of Chinese enterprises in specific industries and their development needs. The announcements of the reforms provide an opportunity for the EU to put pressure on improving the situation of companies from Union countries operating in China.

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50-lecie ASEAN-u: szansa na nowe otwarcie w relacjach gospodarczych z Polską

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): Polish

W tym roku ASEAN obchodzi 50. rocznicę powstania. Założone w 1967 r. stowarzyszenie przyczyniło się do utrzymania pokoju w regionie i do jego dynamicznego rozwoju gospodarczego w ostatnich dekadach. Dlatego uznawane jest za jeden z najbardziej udanych projektów integracyjnych w Azji. Jednak pomimo rosnącego znaczenia ekonomicznego organizacji jej obecne relacje gospodarcze z Polską są niesatysfakcjonujące i nie wykorzystują w pełni swojego potencjału. Sposobem na poprawę sytuacji jest m.in. postępująca integracja w ramach Wspólnoty Gospodarczej ASEAN-u oraz intensyfikacja działań promujących Polskę w regionie.

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A #Colectiv Responsibility to Fight Corruption: Romania’s Nightclub Fire Protests Singe the System

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

The tragic fire in Club Colectiv in Bucharest shed light on the broader systemic problems of corruption. The resulting and quickly swelling public outrage fits in with a series of anti-systemic protests in Romania in recent years. A change of government resulting from the prime minister’s swift resignation will bring no immediate relief to an ailing system. For that to happen, more efforts are needed on all fronts: among the political elite, civil society, as well as Romania’s external partners. The latter can be important in preventing political destabilisation and promoting positive change.

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A “Non-euro” Zone after a Possible Brexit

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The UK’s exit from the European Union will change the relationship between eurozone countries and those without a common currency—primarily to the detriment of the latter. They will be faced with a choice between fast-track adoption of the euro or political and economic marginalisation. The obvious political and economic risks associated with both options can be limited by stabilising the relationship between the eurozone and EU Member States without the common currency. In this context, it is worth considering strengthening the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

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A “Trillion Euro” Problem: Target 2 as a Risk for Germany

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

In the German discussion on the eurozone, there is not only a question of reforms, e.g. the introduction of a joint budget and finalisation of the banking union. Much attention is also paid to the Target 2 payment system, which simultaneously accumulated the high, positive balance of the Bundesbank and the negative balances of the central banks of the southern European countries. This imbalance is considered an economic and political risk for Germany. However, remedies against it are in short supply. Actions that are too rapid or radical could destabilise the eurozone.

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A Conservative Europe: Kramp-Karrenbauer’s Vision of Integration

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The future of Europe, according to the chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats, is a free market, no-superstate EU that is able to play a greater role in the world. Her manifesto is not only a reaction to another French offensive in the area of European politics but also an ideological offer of cooperation to potential allies from Northern and Central Europe.

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A Make or Break Moment: Afghanistan Prepares for Key Elections This Fall

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

The date of the long overdue parliamentary elections in Afghanistan has been set for 20 October. If they go ahead as planned, the effects of years of international efforts to stabilise the country and build democracy will be visible. An efficient, safe vote will testify to the strength of state institutions and strengthen the legitimacy of the government. On the other hand, the disruption of the elections or undermining the results can cause political chaos and serve the Taliban, seeking to seize power. If requested by the government in Kabul, the U.S., NATO, and the EU should stand ready to support the electoral process, especially in ensuring security.

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A New President in Croatia: No Internal Changes, Tougher Relations with Serbia

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

On 15 February, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, from the right-wing Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), will replace social democrat Ivo Josipović, who has been in office for five years, as president of Croatia. The expectations of society relate primarily to an improvement in Croatia’s economic situation, but due to limited powers, the change of president will not cause any fundamental shifts. However, it can be expected that there will be implications for policy concerning neighbouring states, especially Serbia. The change in president is also a sign that the people of Croatia will broadly support the opposition in the parliamentary elections scheduled for later this year.

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A Polar Silk Road: The Arctic in China’s Foreign and Economic Policies

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The Arctic is playing an increasingly important role in Chinese foreign and economic policy. In January 2018, the Chinese government published a strategy for this region, recognising it as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. The Arctic is to be used primarily as a source of raw materials and an attractive transport route connecting Eastern Asia with Europe. China’s actions may ultimately challenge the interests of Poland’s allies, including the United States, which should be taken into account when considering cooperation with Chinese entities.

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A Post-Pandemic Budget: The New Multiannual Financial Framework 2021–2027

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

The European Commission (EC) wants to issue bonds to finance the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic without reducing the budgets of existing common policies. The axis of the larger EU budget will be the implementation of two key projects launched before the pandemic: the green and digital transitions. The Commission proposal has elements that are attractive for both sides of the debate about the EU budget and it is, therefore, likely that the final outcome of the negotiations will not be much different.

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A Step Towards Normality: Relaxing the COVID-19 Restrictions Imposed in EU Countries

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski,Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

The slowing growth rate of COVID-19 incidence has prompted some EU countries to make the first attempts to move away from the restrictions imposed in the fight against the pandemic. The goal is to reduce the scale of the economic recession and return to growth as soon as possible. The usual course of action is opening schools and shops, combined with maintaining precautions and mass testing. However, the authorities emphasize the need to monitor the situation and readiness to quickly restore restrictions.

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A System of Unconnected Vessels: The Gas Market in the Baltic States

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

An internally integrated gas market that is independent from Russia is a permanent element of the Baltic States’ energy policies. This goal in the regional dimension was to be achieved by the launch of an LNG terminal in Klaipeda, Lithuania, at the end of 2014. However, Latvia rejects the opportunity to import gas from Lithuania, and Estonia would benefit only slightly. Instead, to cooperate effectively, including in the implementation of joint infrastructure projects, all three act individually. This hinders the creation of a regional market and the EU should actively resist it.

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Activities of the Russian Armed Forces during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Although the Russian armed forces have been mobilised to help tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, troops have not stopped intensive training. They are also conducting operations in Syria, Armenia and Tajikistan. This shows that the army is an important tool in Russian internal and foreign policy. The significant mobilisation potential of the Russian armed forces will be an important challenge for NATO countries.

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Adaptacja NATO do nuklearnych wyzwań ze strony Rosji

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): Polish

W odpowiedzi na rosyjskie groźby nuklearne NATO dokonało wzmocnienia odstraszania jądrowego. Szczyt w Warszawie wysłał silny sygnał o determinacji i gotowości sojuszników do przeciwstawienia się nuklearnym zagrożeniom. Wiarygodność tego sygnału będzie zależeć od dalszych wysiłków w dziedzinie komunikacji strategicznej, planowania i ćwiczeń oraz od inwestycji w utrzymanie potencjału.

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Adaptacja polityki bezpieczeństwa państw bałtyckich

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): Polish

W obliczu niepewności co do zaangażowania USA w NATO i relacji amerykańsko-rosyjskich Estonia, Litwa i Łotwa próbują dostosować politykę bezpieczeństwa do zmiennych okoliczności. Adaptacja ta polega na stopniowym zwiększaniu wydatków na obronność i intensyfikacji działań podejmowanych przez państwa bałtyckie od czasu agresji Rosji na Ukrainę. Zagrożenie rosyjskie pozostanie dominującym uwarunkowaniem polityki bezpieczeństwa państw bałtyckich. Z uwagi na ograniczony potencjał Estonia, Litwa i Łotwa będą poszukiwać możliwości specjalizacji w dziedzinach istotnych z punktu widzenia zdolności Sojuszu do odstraszania agresji i reagowania na nowe wyzwania.

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Administracja Trumpa wobec zagrożenia nuklearnego i rakietowego ze strony Korei Północnej

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Postępy programu nuklearnego i rakietowego Korei Północnej stają się dla USA naglącym zagrożeniem, któremu administracja Donalda Trumpa zamierza się zdecydowanie przeciwstawić. Jej strategia może być w dużym stopniu kontynuacją polityki z poprzednich lat, ale nowym czynnikiem będzie presja na Chiny, by w pełni wykorzystały swe możliwości nacisku na reżim Kim Dzong-Una. Kryzys na Półwyspie Koreańskim może mieć znaczące skutki dla relacji USA z europejskimi sojusznikami.

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Publisher: Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych