Series:Politička Analiza

ARITHMETIC OF IRRESPONSIBILITY. How and when to make a functional transition of authority from the international community to the domestic authorities

ARITMETIKA NEODGOVORNOSTI. Kako i kada napraviti funkcionalnu tranziciju ovlasti sa međunarodne zajednice na domaće vlasti

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Mirza Kušljugić,Davor Vuletić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Keywords: Dayton-Agreement; autonomy of Bosnia and HercegowVina;

Responsibility implies ownership of current social processes and the ability to anticipate future ones. Ten years after the signing of the Framework Peace Agreement, also known as the Dayton Agreement, it is impossible to classify Bosnia and Herzegovina in the category of Ownership Society1. The political elite does not control the present and has not shown itself ready to enable BiH to become a responsible society in the foreseeable future. Instead, the international community has been doing it for a good ten years, through the entire spectrum of its organizational forms.

BiH DIPLOMACY - REALITIES AND NEEDS. Analysis of the causes of the identity crisis of foreign policy and diplomacy in Bosnia and Herzegovina

DIPLOMACIJA BiH -REALNOSTI I POTREBE. Analiza uzroka krize identiteta vanjske politike i diplomacije u BiH

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Mirza Kušljugić,Davor Vuletić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Diplomacy of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in terms of its organization, functioning technique, principles on which the DKP network in the world rests and long-term tasks and goals, is a direct reflection of the position of BiH's foreign policy, which, in its performance, is a mirror of the internal constitutional constitution of the state and the policies and relations of the ruling political forces in the country. For this reason, an expedient reform of diplomacy that would bring this activity into harmony with the proclaimed interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina and contemporary world trends cannot be done without structural reforms in the country and without a thorough change in the current internal relations that today make Bosnia and Herzegovina a country that, in terms of its institutional solutions and functions, is not a partner to almost no one in contemporary world relations.

READINESS FOR STABILIZATION AND ABILITY TO JOIN THE EU. Capacity of institutions and society for SAA negotiations

SPREMNOST ZA STABILIZACIJU I SPOSOBNOST PRIDRUŽIVANJA S EU. Osposobljenost institucija i društva za pregovore o SSP-u

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić / Language(s): Bosnian

The topic of the third analysis of the VPI is the readiness of Bosnia and Herzegovina. society and the capacity of BiH institutions to continue the joining process, popularly called - European integration. We chose this topic because of its topicality and importance for all our readers and society as a whole. Although we already decided in June 2005 to devote one analysis to this topic, and announced it in our first analysis, we decided to wait a little longer. Actuality of the official start of negotiations on the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) on November 25, 2005. she invited us to focus on the weaknesses with which we enter this important process, the good sides of our preparations, but also the challenges that force us to take responsibility.

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE: The Coming Region

JUGOISTOČNA EVROPA: Regija koja Dolazi

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Does Southeast Europe have a future as a region that is still governed by an embedded subject of geopolitical power (the international community in different modalities)? If we were to decide only and only to accept historical causality, the answer is more negative than positive. But isn't Wittgenstein right when he treats the absolutization of causality as mere superstition? Even the idea of Europe, to say nothing of its institutions as a practical human purpose, would fail unreservedly if causality were the measure of all things and if there were no moderate discontinuity in the philosophy of history and social sciences (Cazes, 1992, pp. 209-266). And this discontinuity is the result of the prospecting, the foresight of the European genius who, after the Second World War, opposed the laws of historical causality.

Political analysis. The role of civil society in the reform of the constitution in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Politička analiza. Uloga civilnog društva u reformi ustava u BiH

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Keywords: civil society in BiH;

This document is intended for organizations that operate under the umbrella of the term "civil society", where there is an interest in being included in the dialogue on the reform of the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Therefore, the goal of this document is to offer a vision of the role of civil society in the reform of the constitution, to determine the basic guidelines for the active engagement of non-governmental organizations and to point out the necessity of recognizing and accepting one's own strengths and weaknesses. One of his basic recommendations is precisely that each individual non-governmental organization should recognize its interest and role in constitutional reform, formulate its own goals, messages and mechanisms and act in that direction. It would be idealistic to expect that the political elites, who until now have appropriated the discussion on the reform of the constitution, will themselves see the advantages of including civil society in that process. Therefore, this analysis highlights the need to create a more positive environment for partnership and dialogue between civil society and political elites, as well as the media.

Political analysis: Germany in Bosnia and Herzegovina - from intention to initiative

Politička analiza: Njemačka u BiH – od namjere do inicijative

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Keywords: Germany and the Balkans;

As much as Germany's foreign policy has shied away from the Balkans throughout history, it has imposed itself on it as an inevitable stop on the way to the Orient. Even today, the words of the famous German chancellor Bismarck, from the sixties of the 19th century, who told the representatives of the Imperial Reichstag: "The entire Balkans are not worth even the healthy bone of a single Pomeranian warrior..." Just a few years later, Bismarck was forced to revise your thesis in practice. Not only did he initiate the Berlin Congress, but he played an active role in creating the borders of today's Balkans. And Angela Merkel's German foreign policy is well aware of the fact that the danger of redrawing the Balkan borders must finally be annulled. The Balkans, with its open problems, is a ticking time bomb in the lap of the European, and thus the German, concept of security. The deactivation of that bomb is a process that has been going on for the last twenty years, and it was Germany that invested considerable financial resources in the "demining" of the region, but perhaps not adequate political attention. In order not to be misunderstood, it is necessary to sublimate why the financial and humanitarian engagement is considered to have lacked the sharper political attention of official Berlin.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: The Eurozone as a fiscal union - a long-needed scenario?

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Eurozona kao fiskalna unija – odavno potreban scenarij?

Author(s): Iain Begg / Language(s): Bosnian

"There is nothing to do with the transfer union!" - this has long been Germany's firm stance on the issue of the euro. But the fiscal union is being talked about more and more, not only as the most credible way out of the national debt crisis that is pressing the eurozone, but also as an inevitable and logical consequence of the monetary union. According to this reason, the fiscal union would make it much easier to reap the promised fruits of the common currency, and the gains would easily exceed all costs. Today, it cannot be denied that fiscal (or political) union is a scenario for the development of the Eurozone that must be taken seriously. The seemingly insurmountable obstacles in the way may be serious enough to make progress nearly impossible.1 However, given how many golden calves have been slaughtered since the fall of 2009, it may only take one or two more crises for the debate shifts from the question of whether a fiscal union will be established to the question of how it will be done. The aim of this essay is to present the arguments in favor of a tighter fiscal union as a welcome, rather than ominous, solution to the problems that have plagued the common currency in the last two years. The essay attempts to construct a plausible scenario that describes what such a fiscal union could look like, considering the arguments for and against and possible costs and benefits.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Accession of the Republic of Croatia to the European Union. Open issues between BiH and Croatia and implications for BiH

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Pristupanje Republike Hrvatske Evropskoj uniji. Otvorena pitanja između BiH i Hrvatske i implikacije po BiH

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

On June 30, 2011, at the proposal of the European Commission, the Council of Europe announced the closing of the negotiations on the accession of the Republic of Croatia to the European Union and proposed July 1, 2013 as the date of the country's accession to the Union. Croatia will thus become the 28th member of the EU on that day, if no unexpected and hard-to-imagine problems arise in the meantime. It will thus realize its multi-year basic strategic political, economic and social goal. At the same time, this fact will potentially significantly affect the overall situation in the region, open up new opportunities in the process of Euro-Atlantic integration in the Western Balkans, but also reveal in a new way the negative implications of the open and unresolved issues between Croatia and the countries in the region. Without the resolution of many open questions in this area, the overall situation in BiH, especially economic but also political, may be even more difficult than today. In a new light and intensity, the consequences resulting from the fact of lagging behind in harmonizing the standards with those that will be applied by Croatia as a member of the Union, especially in the economic sphere, will be shown, whereby the standards in its neighborhood will be incompatible with the new standards in Croatia itself. These differences and inconsistencies will primarily be "booked" to the detriment of its neighbors, but in any case they will have significant repercussions for Croatia as well.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Bosnia and Herzegovina - Russian Federation (economic perspective of bilateral relations)

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Bosna i Hercegovina – Ruska Federacija (ekonomski rakurs bilateralnih odnosa)

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Abdulah Sarajlić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Keywords: Russia abd BiH;

The focus of this analysis will primarily be the bilateral economic relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Russian Federation (RF), that is, that aspect of the relationship that deals with economic diplomacy, because we believe that in the future economic relations will be dominant within the overall bilateral relations between BiH and the RF. Of course, in addition to the economic dimension of bilateral relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Russian Federation, we will give a brief description of political relations and relations in the sphere of culture, science and sports, because this actually gives us a rounded picture of those relations. What is an important determinant of the bilateral relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Russian Federation is asymmetry, which is reflected in the differences in the size of the two countries, because: 1) the Russian Federation belongs to the largest countries in the world, while Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs to small countries; 2) in the geopolitical sense, the RF is a world power, BiH is in the stages of positioning within the international political scene; 3) in the economic sense, the RF is a world-relevant market, BiH with a small market, viewed in a global context, and also when talking about the potential of natural resources, then 4) the RF has Mendeleev's table, that is, all the known elements that exist in nature, while Bosnia and Herzegovina has much more modest potential in this sense. Another important determinant of bilateral relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Russian Federation is the specificity that is reflected in the special status of the Russian Federation vis-à-vis Bosnia and Herzegovina, because the Russian Federation is a member of, for example, the Contact Group and other (international) bodies, institutions and organizations that are (in)directly involved in the political processes of the post-war period. Bosnia and Herzegovina.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: NATO expansion to Bosnia and Herzegovina (Step towards stability or Don't count on NATO)

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Proširenje NATO-a na Bosnu i Hercegovinu (Korak ka stabilnosti ili Ne računaj NATO)

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Keywords: NATO, BiH and NATO;

The purpose of this analysis is not to theoretically elaborate the concept of the NATO alliance and all its military and civilian aspects, but to determine the elements of the true political determination of Bosnia and Herzegovina for membership in that alliance, the causes of politicization that led to a halt in the accession process, the hostage situation of the authorities in BiH. institution and geopolitical consequences of non-membership of Bosnia and Herzegovina in NATO for regional stability.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Bilateral relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. Focus on Serbia's foreign policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Bilateralni odnosi Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije Fokus na spoljnu politiku Srbije prema BiH

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Burdened by the legacy of conflict, imbued with a multitude of interests and motivations, the relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia represent a complex subject for analysis. The historical legacy in relations is an unavoidable factor in the current bilateral parallels, but for the purposes of this analysis, history will not represent a separate entity, but the background of different angles will be presented in the given context. thus, we intend to avoid a summary overview of the historical development of relations, which could easily introduce elements of prejudging contemporary and future relations, and could not be exhaustive and include all important aspects and events. the text that follows is the result of consideration of vital and central issues in the relations between the two countries, by no means a comprehensive presentation of absolutely total bilateral relations. The special attention that is focused on the foreign policy of the eastern neighbor helps to limit the analysis and thus somewhat deepens its scope. Other questions, which could also be worth studying, but did not find a place in this text, can be carried out in a similar way in further analyses.

ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY - a high priority challenge for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Non nova sed nove (Not new, but in a new way)

EKONOMSKA DIPLOMATIJA – izazov visokog prioriteta za Bosnu i Hercegovinu. Non nova sed nove (Ne nova, već na novi način)

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Solving economic issues in international relations has become an inseparable part of diplomatic theory and practice throughout history. The result of the latest acceleration of globalization and trade liberalization is the increase in competition both on domestic and foreign markets, so that countries that do not have a developed concept of economic diplomacy cannot play a proactive role in relations with other countries, but instead become the object of economic diplomacy of other countries. After the war, the period of receiving aid and the partial reconstruction of the country, building a strong concept of economic diplomacy is emerging as the highest ranked priority of BiH. foreign policy. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a concept of economic diplomacy that so far has not produced good enough results, which is most evident from the large trade deficit. In order for the concept of economic diplomacy of Bosnia and Herzegovina to be more effective, activities must be carried out continuously, and the techniques of economic diplomacy should be developed and appropriate to the time and place. Despite the series of difficulties that continuously accompany it, the concept of economic diplomacy in Bosnia and Herzegovina is still taking a clear shape and has a real chance to grow into a strong lever for the development of the domestic economy.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Kosovo: the new reality of regional cooperation

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Kosovo: nova realnost regionalne sradnje

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

The purpose of this analysis is to try to look at the possibility of changing the course in BiH towards Kosovo through the prism of the recent thawing of relations between Belgrade and Pristina. It should be remembered here that Bosnia and Herzegovina, precisely because of these internal gaps, lags behind even Serbia in the normalization of relations with Kosovo. The starting points of the analysis are the material basis of relations (trade and economic cooperation) and strategic political aspiration (EU), but due to the high politicization of the Kosovo case, it is impossible to bypass the tactical political dimension; above all, it refers to the change of government in Serbia and the constellation of forces on the political scene in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kosovo, in addition to its mythological connotations, which should not be ignored, also has a material side - people live and work there, and events in Kosovo, as well as relations with neighboring countries, have real consequences for the security of the region and the everyday life of people. Therefore, the structure of the analysis will be based on the hypothesis that the future of the Western Balkan region lies in stable relations between Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Depending on the attitudes of BiH. political elites, there is a possibility for the normalization of relations between BiH and Kosovo on the basis of the agreements reached between Belgrade and Pristina, but also on the basis of the kind of normalization that has been carried out towards Kosovo from the very beginning by European Union member states that, like BiH, have not recognized its independence.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: The new Silk Road leads through the Balkans to China and the countries of Southeast Europe

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Novi Put svile vodi preko Balkana Kina i zemlje jugoistočne Evrope

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

The People's Republic of China entered the 21st century with the confidence of an economic superpower, but also with a sense of duty to regain its lost world glory after the so-called "century of national humiliation". Economic growth, which in the last 30 years averaged 10% per year, as well as successful balancing on the international political scene, enabled China to begin expansion into the markets of the United States of America, the European Union, and African countries. This expansion is not without obstacles, however. Namely, Chinese investments and companies in third markets face both political resistance and strong competition, especially in technologically demanding sectors. After 2008, when the financial crisis from the USA spread to Europe and when the Eurozone countries fell into debt problems, the attitude towards China and its economic power began to change.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Balkan Triangle. The European perspective as the Pythagorean theorem

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Balkanski Trougao. Evropska perspektiva kao Pitagorina teorema

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

A year has passed since Croatia's formal entry into the European Union, an event that has rightly been crowned with the epithet historic. This is not enough time to seriously analyze the economic implications of that joining, both for Croatia and for the neighborhood, but enough to, in combination with a hundred years of Balkan solitude through two world wars, expand the regional picture, which we dealt with in several previous analyses, this time we focus on the triangle Zagreb - Belgrade - Sarajevo (see the following map). Fifteen million people of different ethnic and confessional affiliations live in the area of that triangle today, deeply quarreled over the past throughout history, who can hardly agree on the content of any historical reading book, but yet so similar and economically and culturally interdependent. In which, reduced to a geometric model, Zagreb - Sarajevo and Sarajevo - Belgrade are legs, and the hypotenuse of that triangle is the line Belgrade - Zagreb. If for a moment we were to reduce the relations between countries to a geometric pattern, then applying the Pythagorean theorem we would come to the conclusion, figurative of course, that the sum of all relations in this triangle is equal to the sum of the relations between ZAGREB and BELGRADE as its hypotenuse. This geometric lesson and its, perhaps a little forced, application to regional relations nevertheless leads us to a unique conclusion that corresponds very well to reality - Zagreb and Belgrade have always held and still hold the keys to regional relations, especially in the area that is the subject of this analysis.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Agreement on Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Effects on Bosnia and Herzegovina and other potential members of the European Union

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Sporazum o transatlantskome trgovinskom i investicionom partnerstvu: efekti na Bosnu i Hercegovinu i druge potencijalne članice Evropske unije

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

On February 13, 2013, the United States of America and the European Union announced their intention to initiate negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (hereinafter: TTIP) with the aim of expanding bilateral trade flows and investments between these two economic blocs. The goal of initiating structural economic reforms is to provide incentives for economic growth and employment, especially in sectors that are of strategic importance for the signatory states. The stated priorities of this agreement include: reduction and/or elimination of tax burdens, reduction of investment barriers, general market liberalization, etc.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Economic conditions in Russia and possible consequences for the Western Balkans (with a focus on Bosnia and Herzegovina)

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Ekonomske prilike u Rusiji i moguće posljedice po zapadni Balkan (s fokusom na Bosnu i Hercegovinu)

Author(s): Z. Kulundžić,A. Kapetanović,Davor Vuletić,Mirza Kušljugić,Dževad F. Sarajlić,Zlatko Dizdarević / Language(s): Bosnian

Keywords: Russia and the Balkans;

Long after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia was believed to want to (p)remain a part of the international political and economic order in its full capacity. This implied a long-term process of trade liberalization and active political cooperation with the West, respect for neighbors' borders, as well as participation in international multilateral forums. The fact that Russia's trade volume (exports plus imports) with developed countries has doubled in the last nine years and that Russia was admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012 shows that this approach of Russia was not just a wish of liberals and Western officials. For many years, this country went through the process of integration into the world political and economic order led by the United States of America and the European Union.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: New Capitalist system of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Reform Agenda and Social Cohesion Model as its Instruments

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: New Capitalist system of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Reform Agenda and Social Cohesion Model as its Instruments

Author(s): Adisa Omerbegović Arapović / Language(s): English

After twenty five years of transition Bosnia and Herzegovina has failed to establish a coherent and recognizable model of capitalism. The political economy of the country is based on the combination of opposing elements of capitalist and socialist economic models. The underlying value choices are not based on the grounds of social consensus, thus resulting in the growing economic and social deviations, which are threatening the survival of existing social, economic and political order. The last answer by the political actors to these disturbances has been the Reform Agenda, serving as the package of reforms predominantly the social and economic ones. However, the Reform Agenda does not contribute enough in order to push the society towards the new value choices which are necessary to establish: a more just society, economic development and a control over capitalism. On the other hand, the Social Cohesion Model presents the unused instruments of the redistribution of income and fiscal democratization. By comparing the key elements of the Reform Agenda and Social Cohesion Model, this study provides alternative choices, which ultimately lead towards a different and a potentially more just social outcome, which is in the interest of the citizens and the raison d’État.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: The status of a candidate for EU membership - Between challenges and weaknesses

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Status kandidata za članstvo u EU - Između izazova i slabosti

Author(s): Osman Topčagić / Language(s): Bosnian

The past year 2015 was extremely significant for the Process of stabilization and accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the European Union. It will remain recorded as the year of the return to the path of reforms, which resulted in the submission of Bosnia and Herzegovina's application for EU membership on February 15, 2016 in Brussels. Taking into account the existing problems, skeptics of the European path of BiH see in the submission of requests an act that implies only a declarative readiness that is not supported by substantial reforms, and they believe that, in this political constellation, it is not at all ready to face the challenges on the way to the Union. For moderate optimists who believe that BiH is at a turning point and that the perspective of EU membership is important in itself, because it is the driving force for positive democratic, political, economic and social changes in BiH, the current year will undoubtedly provide answers about the symbolism and the significance of submitting requests and the readiness of our country to fulfill the following obligations.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS: Iran and the Middle East Perspectives on old premises: Iran's denuclearization. Return of Russia. Fear among the Arabs. Skepticism of Israel.

POLITIČKA ANALIZA: Iran i Srednji istok Perspektive na starim premisama: Denuklearizacija lrana. Povratak Rusije. Strah među Arapima. Skepticizam Izraela.

Author(s): Hajrudin Somun / Language(s): Bosnian

In everything that has happened in the Middle East in the last few decades, especially since the "Arab Spring" in 2011, which turned from a mass social revolt against authoritarian authorities into its antipode - the so-called The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or Daesh as it is abbreviated in the Middle East, the political, ideological and military role of Iran could not be ignored. However, the door to the Middle East was reopened to the Islamic Republic only in the summer of 2015, after the conclusion of an agreement on its nuclear program with the five world powers on which international politics rests. The nuclear deal with Iran, in itself, could have contributed to calming tensions and regional security, so it was accepted, with more or less approval, by most Arab countries and Turkey, but Saudi Arabia and Israel rejected it and accepted it as a threat to their own existence.