Series:PISM Spotlight

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EU27-India Summit: Partnership Against Common Challenges

EU27-India Summit: Partnership Against Common Challenges

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; India; economic policy; EU27;

The first-ever meeting of the leadership of the EU and its Member States with the Indian prime minister, held on 8 May in virtual form, resulted in a decision to resume negotiations on economic agreements. The officials launched the Connectivity Partnership and announced enhanced cooperation in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Return of the European Army Idea?

Return of the European Army Idea?

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; EU; European Army; Military Policy;

A day before the meeting of the Council of the EU on 6 May, the media revealed that 14 Member States proposed to establish a joint, European military force. This concept does not assume building a supranational European army, nonetheless it will add dynamics to the debate on the EU military level of ambition, and about the size and character of EU’s autonomous military capabilities in particular.

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Labour’s Electoral Underperformance Opens the Way for a New Scottish Independence Campaign

Labour’s Electoral Underperformance Opens the Way for a New Scottish Independence Campaign

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; Scotland; Wales; elections;

On 6 May, a series of council, mayoral, Scottish, and Welsh parliamentary elections took place, as well as the House of Commons by election in Hartlepool. Campaigning covered all constituent parts of Great Britain. The elections provided the first test of support for political forces after the outbreak of the pandemic and Brexit. The clear victory of the Conservatives in England and the nationalists in Scotland seems to confirm electoral shifts occurring since 2016 and the slim prospects for the return of Labour - until recently the largest party with strong footholds in all parts of Great Britain - to power within the next decade.

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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict - Escalation and Significance

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict - Escalation and Significance

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Israel; Palestine; Conflict; Escalation;

The rapid increase in violence between Israel and Hamas stems primarily from the unstable social situation in Jerusalem and the political calculations of the involved parties. Declarations by the two sides indicate that a high-degree of escalation will continue in the coming days. De-escalation depends on the nature of further attacks, the number of casualties, and the scale of tensions in the West Bank and Israel itself.

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Prospects for U.S.-Russia Relations after the Meeting between Blinken and Lavrov

Prospects for U.S.-Russia Relations after the Meeting between Blinken and Lavrov

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; Blinken; Lavrov; foreign policy; Nord Stream 2;

On 19 May, on the sidelines of the Arctic Council ministerial in Reykjavik, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov met for the first time. During the talks, the U.S. administration announced a decision to waive the application of sanctions on certain entities involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

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The Forced Landing and Arrest of Raman Pratasevich

The Forced Landing and Arrest of Raman Pratasevich

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Raman Pratasevich; arrest; Poland; Belarus; Minsk;

On 23 May, the Belarusian authorities forced a passenger plane registered in Poland to land in Minsk. The plan was in Belarusian airspace, but flying from Athens to Vilnius. Among the passengers was Raman Pratasevich, the co-founder of the opposition news portal Nexta, who was arrested after landing. In Belarus, he is accused of conducting terrorist activities, for which he may face the death penalty.

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President Duda Visits Turkey

President Duda Visits Turkey

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; visit; foreign policy; Andrzej Duda;

President Andrzej Duda is paying a state visit to Turkey (24-25 May), aiming to strengthen Polish-Turkish relations, especially in the area of security. It is also an attempt to persuade Turkey to play a greater role in the deterrence of Russia on NATO’s Eastern Flank.

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The U.S. 2022 Defence Budget Request

The U.S. 2022 Defence Budget Request

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA: 2022; defence; budget request;

On 28 May, the Biden administration presented a full U.S. budget request for fiscal year 2022, asking Congress for $715 billion for the Department of Defense (a nominal increase of 1.6% over the 2021 funding levels, although it would amount to a slight decrease in real terms once inflation is taken into account). The proposal emphasises strengthening deterrence of China and quality over the size of the armed forces, along with the development of new types of military capabilities.

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Elections in Saxony-Anhalt Strengthen CDU

Elections in Saxony-Anhalt Strengthen CDU

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Saxony-Anhalt; CDU; elections;

The elections in Saxony-Anhalt resulted in success for the ruling CDU, which won 37.1% of the votes. The party managed to significantly improve on its 2016 result (by 7.3 percentage points) and increase its advantage over Alternative for Germany (AfD). Although the extreme right maintained the status of the second-strongest force in parliament, it was the first time they suffered losses in regional elections in eastern Germany. The result is also important for the Bundestag election campaigns because it signals to the Greens that winning votes in the east of Germany is still a challenge for them on their way to victory in the federal elections.

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Biden at the G7 Summit: Cooperation among Democratic Partners

Biden at the G7 Summit: Cooperation among Democratic Partners

Author(s): Paweł Markiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Biden; G7; Democratic Partners; Cooperation; Climate Change;

The G7 summit in Cornwall, UK, (11-13 June) ended with a final declaration that highlighted the group’s commitment to rebuild the global economy and fight climate change. The dominant topic was combating the COVID-19 pandemic. The leaders agreed to supply 1 billion vaccine doses to developing countries. Despite clear differences between group members in their approach toward China, U.S. President Joe Biden’s main goal was to strengthen cooperation with America’s democratic partners in the rivalry with China.

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NATO Summit in Brussels - A Pivotal Moment for the Alliance

NATO Summit in Brussels - A Pivotal Moment for the Alliance

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Brussels; NATO; Summit; Alliance; Climate Change; USA; Joe Biden;

On 14 June, NATO leaders met at the first summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. They agreed to start work on a new NATO strategic concept, which should be adopted in 2022, defining the Alliance’s priorities for the next decade. At the same time, they approved decisions to prepare NATO for the challenges related to a rising China, Russia’s increasingly aggressive policy, the development of emerging and disruptive technologies, and climate change.

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Fight for the Democratic Party Nomination after The Primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire

Walka o nominację Partii Demokratycznej po prawyborach w Iowa i New Hampshire

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: USA; Iowa; New Hampshire; Democratic Party; Nomination;

W stanach Iowa i New Hampshire 3 i 11 lutego br. odbyły się pierwsze z 57 głosowań w prawyborach Partii Demokratycznej. Nieoczekiwanym zwycięzcą w Iowa został Pete Buttigieg, zaś w New Hampshire – Bernie Sanders. Dotychczasowy faworyt w wyścigu o nominację, Joe Biden, uzyskał odpowiednio czwarty i piąty wynik. Jego słaby start utrudni mu dalsze prowadzenie kampanii, w dużej mierze skoncentrowanej na konfrontacji z Donaldem Trumpem.

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Signing of the RCEP, the World’s Largest Free Trade Agreement

Signing of the RCEP, the World’s Largest Free Trade Agreement

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Global Economy; Trade; Agreement; RCEP; Signing;

On 15 November, 15 countries from the Asia-Pacific region signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which after ratification - possible in 2021 - will create the largest free trade area in the world. The RCEP is a response to increasing protectionism. It is also an expression of closer integration in the region, as well as a sign of the increasing strength of China and ASEAN in the region, and the weakening of U.S. influence. The agreement is a challenge for the EU, including to the possibility of less trade with RCEP countries as they seek to increase exchange between members of the agreement.

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Pro-European Opposition Candidate Sandu Wins Moldovan Presidential Elections

Pro-European Opposition Candidate Sandu Wins Moldovan Presidential Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Maia Sandu; Moldova; president; elections; Europe; foreign policy;

On 15 November, Maia Sandu, representing the pro-European opposition, won the second round of the presidential elections in Moldova. With turnout reaching 55%, she gained 57.7% of the votes, defeating the pro-Russian president, Igor Dodon. The president’s Party of Socialists (PSRM) remains the largest power in parliament and its minority government will avoid pro-European reforms.

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EU Strategy for Offshore Renewable Energy

EU Strategy for Offshore Renewable Energy

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; energy; policy; strategy; offshore;

On 19 November, the European Commission (EC) adopted its “Strategy for offshore renewable energy. The document confirms the priority of climate neutrality and its subordination to subsequent sectors. The development of the offshore energy industry is to contribute not only to the protection of the climate, environment, and biodiversity but also as an impulse for the pandemic-hit economy.

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Fearing U.S. Sanctions, Norwegian Firm Limits Involvement in Nord Stream 2

Fearing U.S. Sanctions, Norwegian Firm Limits Involvement in Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Norway; sanctions; Nord Stream 2; gas;

On 26 November, Norwegian firm DNV GL, which provides technical certification and other services for energy infrastructure, informed that because of the threat of U.S. sanctions it will no longer provide some of its services for Nord Stream 2 (NS2). Its decision creates a serious obstacle to completion of the pipeline. Finding a partner guarantying such specialised services and at the same time willing to risk U.S. sanctions poses a challenge that will further delay the unfinished 160 km of NS2 - or in an extreme case, halt its launch.

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The Assassination of the Head of the Military Part of Iran’s Nuclear Programme

The Assassination of the Head of the Military Part of Iran’s Nuclear Programme

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; nuclear programme; head; assassination;

On 27 November, in an attack on the road to Tehran, Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi was killed. He was identified by Western intelligence agencies as the head of a scientific team working on a nuclear warhead and weaponisation and engaged in some other secret projects of Iran’s Ministry of Defence and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The government of Iran accused Israel, specifically its Mossad intelligence agency, and threatened revenge. The killing of the nuclear scientist will complicate the U.S.-Iran negotiations on the renewal of the provisions of the 2015 nuclear agreement, which was likely the main goal of the attack presumably by Israel.

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Romania’s Prime Minister Resigns after Surprising Results of Parliamentary Elections

Romania’s Prime Minister Resigns after Surprising Results of Parliamentary Elections

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Romania; prime minister; resignation; parliament; elections;

Contrary to most pre-election polls, the opposition Social Democratic Party (PSD) won the parliamentary elections in Romania on 6 December. Nevertheless, the National Liberal Party (PNL), which rules the minority government, will probably manage to build a majority coalition. For the first time since the 2004 term, a party of extreme nationalists entered the Romanian parliament.

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Maduro Consolidates Power after Parliamentary Elections in Venezuela

Maduro Consolidates Power after Parliamentary Elections in Venezuela

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Venezuela; parliament; elections; Nicolás Maduro; governance;

The pro-government coalition’s win in the elections to the National Assembly (AN) held on 6 December means Nicolás Maduro will resume full control of state institutions. The EU, the U.S., and other countries that recognise Juan Guaidó as interim president are questioning the legitimacy of the elections and will intensify Venezuela’s international isolation. In response, the Maduro government will be enhancing cooperation with Russia and China, among others. Consequently, the option to resolve the political conflict in Venezuela through negotiations between the government and opposition, as promoted by the EU, will drift away.

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