Series:PISM Spotlight

On the Road to a New NATO Strategy

On the Road to a New NATO Strategy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; strategy; policy;

A group of experts appointed by the NATO Secretary General has published a report on strengthening the political cohesion of the Alliance. The main conclusions of the report “NATO 2030. United for a New Era” were presented at a meeting of the Alliance’s foreign ministers on 1 December.

European Council Breaks Stalemate over EU Multiannual Budget

European Council Breaks Stalemate over EU Multiannual Budget

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; multiannual budget; European Council; policy;

A compromise worked out at the European Council summit on 10 December regarding a conditionality mechanism (“money for rule of law”) opens the way for the final approval of the 2021–2027 Multiannual Financial Framework and the recovery fund. The financial package will provide means for economic reconstruction after the pandemic-induced crisis while enabling the Union to carry out its ambitious undertakings, such as the green transition.

U.S. Sanctions Turkey

U.S. Sanctions Turkey

Author(s): Karol Wasilewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Russia; Turkey; missiles; defence systems; sanctions;

The United States has imposed sanctions on Turkey for purchasing an S-400 air-and-missile defence system from Russia. It used the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). While the limited severity of the sanctions shows that the U.S. is still eager to seek a compromise on the S-400, they also reveal that the Americans consider the presence of the Russian system in Turkey as a breaking point in relations with its ally.

The End of the Beginning - EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

The End of the Beginning - EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

On 24 December, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the conclusion of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Full ratification is to take place in the first weeks of 2021, which will complete the British exit from the EU. The agreement sets the basis for the EU-UK future relations, including the negotiation of supplementary agreements.

Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement

Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; China; economic policy; investment; agreement;

On 30 December, the European Commission announced the conclusion of negotiations on a Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with China, which agreed, among others, to open up its market in certain sectors to European companies, although still with numerous restrictions. The entry into force of the agreement must receive consent from the European Parliament and others. The entire ratification process may take until 2022 and is not a foregone conclusion.

Probable Change of the Main Ruling Party in Montenegro after Three Decades

Probable Change of the Main Ruling Party in Montenegro after Three Decades

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Montenegro; elections; government; ruling party; change;

The ruling Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS) on 30 August won the country’s parliamentary elections, ahead of the autumn constitutional date, because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, after nearly 30 years in power, it is likely to lose it. The opposition won a majority in parliament and is determined to establish a new cabinet based on the demands to continue Montenegro’s international obligations and integrate it with the EU.

Consequences of the Poisoning of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny

Consequences of the Poisoning of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Alexei Navalny; poisoning; politics; consequences;

German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed on 2 September that the Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok. EU and NATO politicians have announced the introduction of sanctions. The Navalny poisoning will have a negative impact on Western countries’ relations with Russia, although it will not result in, for example, blocking the construction of Nord Stream 2.

In the Shadow of Post-Election Protests: Lukashenka’s Visit to Russia

In the Shadow of Post-Election Protests: Lukashenka’s Visit to Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Lukashenka; foreign policy; post-election protest;

On 14 September, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenka met in Sochi for the first time since the Belarusian presidential election (both had spoken on the phone several times before). The talks reportedly focused on the post-election political crisis in Belarus and other issues relating to bilateral relations. The course of the visit proves that the internal crisis and desire to maintain power has pushed Lukashenka to deepen integration with Russia.

Modest Progress after Special EU-China Leaders’ Meeting

Modest Progress after Special EU-China Leaders’ Meeting

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; China; foreign policy; leaders meeting;

On 14 September, three months after the EU-China summit, an additional virtual meeting of EU and PRC leaders took place. It was attended by President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel, German Chancellor Angela Merkel (due to the German presidency), and Xi Jinping, the PRC chairman. The EU has manifested a united stance on a sharper course towards China. Little progress has been signalled in the negotiations of an investment agreement, so the chances they will finish this year are not certain.

UAE, Bahrain Establish Diplomatic Relations with Israel

UAE, Bahrain Establish Diplomatic Relations with Israel

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: UAE; Bahrain; Israel; diplomacy; foreign policy;

On 15 September in Washington, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed agreements on the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel. The ceremony exposed almost a decade-long cooperation between several Gulf States and Israel against Iran, and the marginalisation of the Palestinian cause.

A Reformist Push Despite the Crisis: State of the Union Address

A Reformist Push Despite the Crisis: State of the Union Address

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EC; EU; Ursula von der Leyen; economic policy; COVID-19;

Despite the pandemic-provoked economic crisis, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen is not giving up on the main items of her strategy unveiled last year. In the State of the Union address on 16 September, she manifested her determination to use the economic recovery programme to speed up the green and digital transformations.

New Pact on Migration and Asylum: Linking Asylum with Returns

New Pact on Migration and Asylum: Linking Asylum with Returns

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: migration; asylum; returns; policy; EU; EC:

On 23 September, the European Commission (EC) presented the long-awaited Pact on Migration and Asylum. Considering the mixed nature of migration to Europe, the Commission proposed a new solidarity mechanism. As an alternative to relocation, it allows Member States to pay for returns of people who do not have a right to asylum. The extraordinary mechanism, providing for the relocation of people who were not successfully returned, will most likely spur controversy.

Macron’s Visits to Lithuania and Latvia

Macron’s Visits to Lithuania and Latvia

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: Lithuania; Latvia; Emmanuel Macron; foreign policy;

French President Emmanuel Macron’s visits to Lithuania and Latvia (28-30 September) took place during the protests in Belarus, which followed the rigged presidential elections there, and in a time of tensions between the EU and Russia after an attempt to poison Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The visits served mainly to promote the French vision of the EU and its security initiatives, but also confirmed France’s commitment to pro-democratic changes in Belarus.

Polish Competition Watchdog Fines the Companies behind Nord Stream 2

Polish Competition Watchdog Fines the Companies behind Nord Stream 2

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Polish Competition; Nord Stream 2;

On 7 October, the president of the Polish competition watchdog, UOKiK, imposed a penalty of more than PLN 29 billion (€6.4 billion) on Gazprom and more than PLN 234 million (€52 million) in total on five European companies participating in the construction and financing of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. The reason cited is that the companies made agreements to finance and build NS2 without UOKiK approval as required by law. The watchdog also required the firms to terminate the financing agreements. The companies will most likely appeal the decision, and Gazprom together with Russian authorities (who control the company) will claim that UOKiK’s action is politically motivated. Despite such allegations, the penalty is the effect of non-transparent activities related to NS2, an issue that has been red-flagged by Poland for years.

Breakdown in EU-UK Negotiations on Future Relations

Breakdown in EU-UK Negotiations on Future Relations

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU: UK; negotiations; foreign policy; breakdown;

The more-confrontational-than-expected tone of the European Council (EUCO) conclusions in respect of the negotiations on EU-UK relations after Brexit and the subsequent exchange of statements by both sides (15-18 October) resulted in the talks being stopped at their last stage. Despite the progress noted by negotiators in recent weeks, the scenario of a “no deal” on trade - risky for both sides - may come true because of the ongoing dispute over EU fishing rights in British waters.

The Three Seas Initiative Summit in Tallinn

The Three Seas Initiative Summit in Tallinn

Author(s): Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: TSI; Three Seas Initiative; Tallinn; Summit;

The fifth summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held on 19 October amid the ongoing pandemic and growing risk of a further economic slowdown. A remedy for the crisis in Central and Eastern Europe may include the Estonian Smart Connectivity concept. The implementation of projects in the region will be supported by the U.S. - which confirmed its participation in the Three Seas Fund - in proportion to the contribution of other members.

The Return of the Left to Power in Bolivia

The Return of the Left to Power in Bolivia

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bolivia; governance; government; left;

The left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS) will take power in Bolivia after a year’s break, based on preliminary results in the parliamentary and presidential elections held on 18 October. MAS is the party of ex-president Evo Morales, who remains in Argentina in asylum. Luis Alberto Arce will be the new president and his government will need to calm the tense internal situation down and tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. The EU’s active support for the peaceful electoral process in Bolivia strengthens the Union’s position as a leading promoter of democracy in Latin America.

OECD Starts Secretary-General Search

OECD Starts Secretary-General Search

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Economy; policy; OECD: foreign policy; secretary-general;

In September, the selection of a new secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began. It will end by 1 March 2021 at the latest, three months before the end of Mexican Angel Gurria’s third five-year term. The new secretary-general must face significant challenges such as the economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, adaption to climate change, and the development of modern technologies. The President of Estonia Kersti Kaljulaid and Polish Minister of Climate and Environment Michał Kurtyka are among those who have submitted their candidacy for the post. The candidates will now seek the support of the Member States.

Zelenskyy’s Defeat - Results of Local Elections in Ukraine

Zelenskyy’s Defeat - Results of Local Elections in Ukraine

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Zelenskyy; local elections; defeat;

The preliminary results of local elections held on 25 October in Ukraine show a defeat for the ruling Servant of the People party. This will increase tensions between the central government and regions whose powers have increased as a result of local government reform being implemented. It is also possible it will lead to the gradual disintegration of the ruling party in the Verkhovna Rada.

Russian Proposal to Limit (U.S.) Missiles in Europe

Russian Proposal to Limit (U.S.) Missiles in Europe

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; USA: missiles; defence policy; Russia; limit proposal;

On 26 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin renewed his call for NATO to reciprocate the Russian moratorium on the deployment of ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km in Europe. Russia declared the moratorium after the U.S. left the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019, citing years-long Russian violation. Although the proposal is presented as a way to minimise the consequences of the collapse of the INF and contains new elements, including an offer of mutual verification, it remains unfavourable to NATO. In practice, it would not ensure the absence of Russian ground-launched missiles with this range in Europe.