Series:PISM Spotlight

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U.S. Speaker of the House Visits Taiwan

U.S. Speaker of the House Visits Taiwan

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Taiwan; China; foreign policy;

On 2-3 August, U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi paid a visit to Taiwan, the first visit of a sitting leader of Congress in 25 years. China considered the visit a violation of its sovereignty and responded by imposing economic sanctions on Taiwan and launching live-fire drills around the island. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait can be expected to continue or escalate at least until the start of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) this autumn.

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German Chancellor Takes Up the Future of Europe

German Chancellor Takes Up the Future of Europe

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; Chancellor; Europe; Future; foreign policy;

Olaf Scholz’s address on the future of Europe, delivered on 29 August at Charles University in Prague, was aimed at strengthening Germany’s status as the leader of the EU, undermined by its too passive reaction to the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The balanced set of proposals for reforms reflects the ambition to play the role of architect of compromises between the Member States.

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EU Eyes Flexible Solution for Issuing Fewer Visas to Russians

EU Eyes Flexible Solution for Issuing Fewer Visas to Russians

Author(s): Stefania Kolarz / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; Visas; Russians; foreign policy; flexibility;

On 30 and 31 August, the Council of the EU held an informal meeting in Prague. EU Member State foreign ministers discussed a ban on issuing tourist visas to Russians, among other things. While the summit did not end up with a consensus in this regard, the ministers adopted Czechia’s proposal to suspend the visa facilitation agreement between the EU and Russia. The proposed solution is intended to discourage Russians from applying for visas by prolonging the procedures and the list of required documents and increasing fees. At the same time, countries bordering Russia have announced that they will adopt more restrictive measures.

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The New British Government Faces a Perfect Storm

The New British Government Faces a Perfect Storm

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; government; Liz Truss; difficulty;

The UK’s new government of the Conservative Party under the leadership of Liz Truss formed on 6 September and began operating in the most difficult socio-economic conditions in several decades on top of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Although its programme is based on the 2019 election manifesto commissioned by Boris Johnson, the first decisions of the Truss government indicate a significant revision of the climate-change and economic policies of its predecessor and a high probability of aggravating disputes with the EU.

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What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?

What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: Queen Elizabeth II; death; UK; governance;

The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.

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Local and Regional Elections in Russia in the Shadow of the War in Ukraine

Local and Regional Elections in Russia in the Shadow of the War in Ukraine

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; elections; regional; local;

The three-day regional and local elections in Russia concluded on 11 September. Through blocking and intimidation of independent candidates and electoral manipulation, the victory went to the party in power, United Russia. The Russian authorities failed, however, to hold referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine, citing “security reasons”, coinciding with the effective counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv region.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine as of the Middle of September

The Military Situation in Ukraine as of the Middle of September

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; 2022; September; military situation; war; Russia;

On 11 September, thanks to a several-day counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to take control of the Kharkiv region. Fighting is also going on in Kherson Oblast. These actions have raised the morale of the Ukrainian army and society and increased international interest in the war in Ukraine. The further success of Ukraine’s actions will depend on its ability to replenish reserves and increasing Western military support.

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In Defence of the Union’s Values and Economy - State of the Union Address

In Defence of the Union’s Values and Economy - State of the Union Address

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; EC; economy; war; Ukraine; impact;

In the annual address on the state of the Union, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen announced the continuation of support for Ukraine. Though the EC strives to minimise the economic fallout of the Russian aggression, it complicates the implementation of the Union’s projects and is likely to worsen citizens’ living standards.

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What Came of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and the Xi-Putin Meeting?

What Came of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and the Xi-Putin Meeting?

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka,Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Russia; Shanghai Cooperation Organization; SCO; foreign policy;

From the perspective of Chinese and Russian leaders, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit held on 15-16 September in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, was intended to show an effective counterbalance to the policy of the U.S. and its partners. However, both the summit itself and the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, held on the summit sidelines on 15 September, confirmed the political differences within the SCO and the diminishing importance of Russia in the organisation.

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Russia Introduces Partial Mobilisation

Russia Introduces Partial Mobilisation

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; military; mobilisation; war; policy;

On 21 September, Russia announced a partial mobilisation of about 300,000 reservists. The official reason is the need to “liberate” the four southeastern oblasts of Ukraine and, according to the Russian authorities, counter the growing threat posed by Western countries. This decision proves that Russia has exhausted its current ability to conduct military operations in Ukraine. In addition, significant problems in the training and provision of the called-up reservists are expected. Partial mobilisation in the coming months will not change the course of the war but will allow Russia to continue it.

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9 May Commemorations in Russia: Victory Day without Victory

9 May Commemorations in Russia: Victory Day without Victory

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; 9th May; commemorations; Ukraine; war;

This year’s Victory Day commemorations in Russia took place amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. In his speech, Vladimir Putin recalled the reasons for the “pre-emptive strike” against Ukraine and declared that victory was near. Fearing a drop in support for the aggression against Ukraine, Putin chose not to announce a general mobilisation.

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Russia Disrupts Gas Transit Through Ukraine

Russia Disrupts Gas Transit Through Ukraine

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; war; gas; transit; disruption;

On 11 May, Ukraine stopped the flow of gas from Russia via the seized Novopskov compressor station and the Sokhranivka station due to illegal off-take by Russia. About one-third of the gas destined for European customers was transported via this route. Russia may use this situation to put pressure on the EU not to introduce sanctions on Russian oil and to discredit Ukraine as a transit country in favour of Nord Stream 2 (NS2).

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The Military Situation in Ukraine after 11 Weeks of Fighting

The Military Situation in Ukraine after 11 Weeks of Fighting

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; war; military situation;

In recent days, the most severe fighting has taken place in eastern Ukraine, mainly in the vicinity of Kharkiv where the Ukrainian defenders conducted an effective counteroffensive, pushing Russian forces towards the border. The Russians maintain positions in the south of Ukraine and are shelling Odesa from the Black Sea. In the near future, Russia will focus on maintaining the areas it has occupied in the southeast of Ukraine and on further offensives in Donbas, while Ukraine will concentrate on defence and additional counter-offensives where possible.

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Finland’s Declaration on NATO Accession

Finland’s Declaration on NATO Accession

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup,Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Finland; NATO; accession; declaration; security; defence;

On 12 May, President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin issued a joint statement in which they supported Finland’s application for NATO membership as soon as possible. The declaration marks an historic change in the Finnish perception of security caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finland wants to strengthen its security by departing from the policy of non-alignment. It may also influence Sweden’s decision on the same issue. In view of the expected sharp reaction from Russia and the long duration of the accession process, the UK’s security guarantees for Finland and Sweden, announced on 11 May, are of great importance.

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New Government in Australia: More Continuation Than Change

New Government in Australia: More Continuation Than Change

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Australia; parliament; elections; government; EU; foreign policy;

The parliamentary elections in Australia on 21 May were won by the opposition Labour Party, led by Anthony Albanese, who became the new prime minister. The end of the nine-year liberal-national Coalition is unlikely to mean, however, significant changes in foreign policy, including in relations with the U.S. or China. On the other hand, the new government’s more ambitious climate policy may strengthen Australia’s partnership with the European Union.

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Biden’s Visits to South Korea and Japan

Biden’s Visits to South Korea and Japan

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Joe Biden; South Korea; Japan; foreign policy; security; economy;

On 20-24 May, U.S. President Joe Biden visited South Korea and Japan, making his first trip to Asia since taking office. The visits demonstrated the importance of these allies in the implementation of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific region and the importance of U.S. extended nuclear deterrence for the security of South Korea and Japan. In response to the global consequences of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and China’s activity in the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. is tightening its military, economic, and technological cooperation with its allies.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine as of the End of May

The Military Situation in Ukraine as of the End of May

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; 2022; May; military situation;

In the last days of May, the fiercest fighting is taking place in Donbas, and the Russians are striving to occupy the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Russian troops are increasingly using scorched-earth tactics, which increases the human and material losses in Ukraine. This increases the need for Western support, not only militarily and in the humanitarian dimension, but also financial.

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Assumptions of U.S. Policy Towards China - Defence of the International Order Rather than Regime Change

Assumptions of U.S. Policy Towards China - Defence of the International Order Rather than Regime Change

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; China; regime change; international order;

On 26 May, Secretary of State Antony Blinken presented the assumptions of U.S. policy towards China. He described that country’s actions, above all its ambitions and real possibilities of changing the international order, as the main, long-term challenge to the global order. The way to deal with the challenges China presents, he argued, is to strengthen the U.S. potential, especially its competitiveness and innovation, along with cooperation with allies and partners primarily from Europe and Asia to effectively compete with China.

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The UK’s “Migration Deal” with Rwanda Enters into Force

The UK’s “Migration Deal” with Rwanda Enters into Force

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: UK; Rwanda; migration; foreign policy;

According to an announcement by the UK authorities, the first group of detained irregular migrants, mainly from the Middle East and Central Asia, is to be transferred to Rwanda on 14 June under a controversial agreement between the two countries. Some of the detainees have started a hunger strike. The agreement shifts the UK’s responsibility for the migrants to a third country in exchange for short-term benefits, while merely simulating systemic solutions.

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Touché - the EU’s Embargo on Russian Oil

Touché - the EU’s Embargo on Russian Oil

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; oil; embargo; sanctions;

After lengthy negotiations, the EU Member States approved the scope of the sixth package of sanctions against Russia. The restrictions include a ban on imports of Russian oil and are intended to cut off the aggressor from key revenues in trade with the West. The use of this sanctioning instrument, while deemed necessary, is nevertheless problematic for many countries, as reflected by the numerous derogations. The consequences of implementing these restrictions will be felt not only by Russians but also by EU citizens, and their actual effectiveness can be assessed only in a few months.

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